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Present patterns of decelerating–accelerating seismic strain in South Japan

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Abstract

Decelerating generation of preshocks in a narrow (seismogenic) region and accelerating generation of other preshocks in a broader (critical) region, called decelerating–accelerating seismic strain (D-AS) model has been proposed as appropriate for intermediate-term earthquake prediction. An attempt is made in the present work to identify such seismic strain patterns and estimate the corresponding probably ensuing large mainshocks (M ≥ 7.0) in south Japan (30–38° N, 130–138° E). Two such patterns have been identified and the origin time, magnitude, and epicenter coordinates for each of the two corresponding probably ensuing mainshocks have been estimated. Model uncertainties of predicted quantities are also given to allow an objective forward testing of the efficiency of the model for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geophysics, School of Geology, Aristotle University, GR54124, Thessaloniki, Greece

    B. C. Papazachos, G. F. Karakaisis, E. M. Scordilis, C. B. Papazachos & D. G. Panagiotopoulos

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  1. B. C. Papazachos
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  2. G. F. Karakaisis
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  3. E. M. Scordilis
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  4. C. B. Papazachos
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  5. D. G. Panagiotopoulos
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Correspondence to E. M. Scordilis.

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Papazachos, B.C., Karakaisis, G.F., Scordilis, E.M. et al. Present patterns of decelerating–accelerating seismic strain in South Japan. J Seismol 14, 273–288 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-009-9165-z

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