Introduction

The COVID-19-pandemic that began in early 2020 disrupted the educational trajectories of students globally. This unprecedented event not only affected students’ academic achievement (Haelermans et al., 2022), motivation levels (Smith et al., 2021) and emotional and physical well-being (Meinck et al., 2022), but also profoundly affected their intentions to study abroad (De Boer, 2021). Amid the pandemic, numerous college students postponed or abandoned their plans to study abroad due to travel restrictions and college closures (De Boer, 2021). Consequently, higher education institutions (HEIs) in key destination countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia experienced significant declines in international student enrollment (James, 2023). As international students constitute a substantial proportion of annual tuition fee revenue of HEIs in these nations (Cantwell, 2019), many institutions faced bankruptcy during the COVID-19 crisis (Crapo, 2021). Furthermore, the pandemic has greatly impacted HEIs’ educational quality and multiculturalism, as international students introduce skills and ideas that foster educational innovation and economic success (Zimmermann et al., 2021). As such, a reduced international student presence affects HEIs in several important ways.

However, studying abroad is not only important for the revenue, multiculturalism, and education of the host HEIs, but also for the students themselves. Numerous studies have demonstrated that studying abroad can bolster students’ knowledge of foreign culture and language (Edelstein & Douglass, 2012), enhance their intercultural adaptability and sensitivity (Root & Ngampornchai, 2013), and foster openness to experience, cooperation, and other interpersonal skills (Edelstein & Douglass, 2012). Moreover, studying abroad has been shown to contribute to the development of ‘global citizenship’ (Hunter et al., 2006) and democratic values (Spilimbergo, 2009) in students. Additionally, a positive correlation has been identified between studying abroad and subsequent labor market outcomes for university students, such as employability and earnings (Messer & Wolter, 2006). It is important to acknowledge that students from different regions may have distinct motivations and patterns of mobility. According to Brooks and Waters (2011), the mobility of East Asian students is primarily driven by the pursuit of prestigious education and the enhancement of career prospects, which is typically influenced by socio-cultural expectations. In contrast, students from mainland Europe pursue mobility predominantly for cultural and academic experiences, reflecting the diverse economic and educational landscapes across the region. Furthermore, UK students, who show lower mobility rates, are inspired by the desire for unique adventures and the prestige associated with global educational institutions. These trends highlight the complex interplay of regional, cultural, and economic factors in influencing the mobility of students from different regions. The present study specifically focuses on the intention of Chinese students to study abroad during the COVID-19 pandemic. China is the world’s largest supplier of international students (Bound et al., 2021). Before the COVID-19 outbreak, the number of Chinese students studying abroad had been steadily increasing since 2009. Despite the US-China trade conflict in June 2018, which intensified anti-globalization and nationalism trends in international higher education (Xiong & Mok, 2020), the number of Chinese international students grew by 9% in 2018 and by percent in 2019. Moreover, in 2020, Chinese students constituted 53% of all international students in the United States (Mason, 2021), 35% in the United Kingdom (HESA, 2020), and 38% in Australia (Mason, 2021).

Given this significant presence of Chinese students in international student mobility, it is crucial to understand their response to the COVID-19 pandemic in relation to study abroad. This information is valuable to international HEIs. These institutions faced not only a sharp decline in their annual tuition revenue but also the need to modify their study programs due to the sudden and substantial decrease in the number of their international students (Crapo, 2021). Considering Chinese students’ intention to study abroad, two important aspects play a role as well. First, concurrent with the COVID-19 pandemic, other critical international events transpired, potentially influencing Chinese students’ intentions to study abroad. For instance, deteriorating relations between China and the United States resulted in Chinese students being barred from participating in US technical study programs (Aaron et al., 2020). Additionally, Brexit has caused many international students from European nations to perceive the United Kingdom as less welcoming, due to increased tuition fees and diminished employment opportunities. This development has created greater opportunities for Chinese international students to continue their studies in the UK (Peters et al., 2021). Therefore, it is important to study the unique contribution of the COVID-19 pandemic to the intention of Chinese students to study abroad, something which remains unexamined to date.

Another aspect that warrants clarification is whether the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the intention to study abroad of all Chinese students in a similar way. It is already known that the pandemic has exacerbated pre-existing inequalities among students. For example, the pandemic has been found to have had a much stronger impact on the educational achievement of low-socioeconomic status students, low-achieving students, and female students (Haelermans et al., 2022; Meinck et al., 2022). Regarding students’ intention to study abroad, it is still unknown whether pre-existing inequalities between certain student groups have been magnified as a result. However, this knowledge is crucial, as it will inform targeted support for these groups in future comparative circumstances.

In light of these two aspects, the present study aims to address the following research questions:

  1. 1.

    How has the COVID-19 pandemic uniquely affected Chinese students’ intention to study abroad, independent of other contemporary international tensions?

  2. 2.

    To what extent has the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated pre-existing inequalities related to socioeconomic status (SES), academic achievement, and gender among Chinese students in their intentions to study abroad?

Literature review

The impact of COVID-19 on students’ intentions to study abroad

The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly reshaped the global landscape of higher education and the dynamics of international student mobility, presented unprecedented challenges and influencing students’ decisions worldwide (James, 2023). In the context of China, the pandemic introduced various factors that may have significantly shaped Chinese students’ intentions to pursue educational opportunities abroad. The stringent pandemic measures and social restrictions within China, for example, may have served as catalysts for Chinese students to seek education in countries perceived to have more freedom and superior pandemic management (Lin et al., 2021). However, at the same time the COVID-19 pandemic adversely affected students’ ability to engage in international studies. The enforcement of social distancing measures led HEIs across the globe to shift from traditional in-person instruction to online platforms, with some institutions even closing their campuses (Watermeyer et al., 2021).

According to a 2020 report by Quacquarelli Symonds (QS), a renowned ranking agency that evaluates university strengths and weaknesses, 60% of university students responding to their annual survey reported that the pandemic led them to postpone or reconsider their plans for enrollment in a foreign university (QS, 2020). This trend is notably pronounced among Chinese student; research conducted by Mok et al. (2021), which analyzed survey data from university students in Mainland China and Hong Kong, discovered that the pandemic had not only significantly reduced the volume of Chinese students pursuing education abroad, but had also redirected their destination preferences towards East Asian regions such as Japan and Taiwan. Additionally, Zhao and Mok (2024) reported that the pandemic had significantly influenced post-graduation decisions of Chinese elite graduates, with an increased number opting for further education within China, often at the same university where they completed their undergraduate degree. Furthermore, the 2020 survey by the British Council, which included over 10,000 Chinese students, showed that about 24% of respondents were less likely to continue their overseas study plans, 39% remained undecided, with the primary concerns being ‘health and well-being’ (79%) and ‘personal safety’ (87%) (Durnin, 2020). Finally, prior research has also highlighted the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on students’ actual decisions to study abroad, offering substantial evidence on the changing patterns of Chinese students’ international mobility, including to countries like the United States (Baer & Martel, 2020), the United Kingdom (Yang et al., 2020), and Australia (Tan et al., 2021).

The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on intentions for studying abroad of students with different background characteristics

Despite its many benefits, research indicates that students from different backgrounds exhibit different preferences and decisions when it comes to studying abroad (Toncar et al., 2006). More concretely, the decision to study abroad has been related to student background characteristics such as SES, academic achievement, and gender. More specifically, high-SES, high-achieving and female students have been found to be more inclined to spend (part of) their studies abroad (Salisbury et al., 2009). There are a number of reasons to assume that the COVID-19 pandemic may have further influenced these disparities, by affecting different student groups in distinct ways.

First, SES has been found to play a crucial role in students’ decisions to study abroad, with high-SES students being more likely to participate in these programs (Findlay et al., 2006; Salisbury et al., 2009; Simon & Ainsworth, 2012). Different reasons have been put forward for this finding. For example, the financial burden associated with studying abroad has been found to act as a significant barrier for low-SES students (Simon & Ainsworth, 2012). Additionally, low-SES students have been found to lack the social capital and family support necessary to facilitate study abroad opportunities (DeVoretz, 2006). Finally, cultural capital, such as knowledge about study abroad programs and application processes, has found to be unequally distributed among students from different socioeconomic backgrounds, with low-SES students facing significant barriers in accessing information about study abroad programs (Ecker-Lyster & Kardash, 2022).

There are several reasons to believe that the COVID-19 pandemic has further affected the existing disparities between low- and high-SES students concerning their intentions to study abroad. To commence, financial constraints due to the pandemic have disproportionately limited international education opportunities for students from lower socioeconomic backgrounds (Frechette & Reilly, 2021). Furthermore, health and safety concerns may disproportionately impact low-SES students, who often have limited access to healthcare and support systems abroad (Schoon & Henseke, 2022). Additionally, the shift to online learning has affected students’ perceptions of study abroad value, with some questioning the need for international travel when educational content is available online (Al-Mawee et al., 2021). This may have impacted lower-income students who are more price-sensitive (Savoca, 1990). Lastly, the pandemic’s disruption of labour markets and heightened concerns about future employment prospects, may have lead low-SES students to prioritize domestic education and work experience more than high-SES students (Browning et al., 2021).

Also, academic achievement has been observed to impact a student’s intention to study abroad. The literature supports this notion, with Pietro and Page (2008) stating that students with weaker academic backgrounds are less likely to study abroad than high-achieving peers. Given the limited availability of spots, institutions use past achievements for selection procedures. Lorz et al. (2016) found in a German School Leavers Survey that reduced intentions to study abroad can be partially linked to poorer academic preparation. Furthermore, confidence to be fit to study abroad is influenced by language ability (Findlay et al., 2006) and academic learning capacity (Bracht et al., 2006), which can deter low-achieving students from pursuing such opportunities.

It is very likely that the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the existing differences in the intentions to study abroad of students with different academic achievement levels. For example, throughout the course of the pandemic, it has been observed that students with lower academic proficiency have encountered greater difficulties adapting to the shift towards online education compared to their high-achieving counterparts, consequently amplifying the disparities in academic achievement between these two groups (Aucejo et al., 2020; Engzell et al., 2021; Haelermans et al., 2021). This widening gap in academic achievement, may have created additional barriers for low-achieving students to study abroad.

Finally, studies have consistently shown that women are more likely to study abroad than men (Cordua & Netz, 2022; Salisbury et al., 2010). Several factors have been proposed to explain this gender gap. First, women may perceive greater benefits from studying abroad, such as enhanced career prospects and personal growth (Salisbury et al., 2010). Second, women may be more likely to choose majors that encourage or require study abroad experiences, such as the humanities or social sciences (Cordua & Netz, 2022). Lastly, societal norms and expectations might contribute to this disparity, with women potentially feeling more pressure to expand their horizons and gain international experience (Van Mol, 2022).

There are a number of reasons to suspect that during the Covid-19 pandemic, the differences between men and women in their intention to study abroad have diminished. For example, research suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic has affected female students more adversely, as they exhibit higher levels of anxiety and more negative expectations compared to their male peers (Alsharawy et al., 2021). This increased anxiety may have hindered their intention to study abroad. Another recent study investigating the potential decrease in income due to COVID-19 identified a marked difference between male and female students, with a higher proportion of female students reporting decreased income (Gewalt et al., 2022). This may also have decreased their intention to study abroad.

From the preceding literature review, it is evident that numerous studies have investigated the impact of COVID-19 on students’ intention to study abroad and the influence of these characteristics on their intention to study. However, only a limited number of studies have endeavored to synthesize these aspects and examine the individual-level effects of student characteristics on the intention to study abroad within the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding the interplay between students’ SES, academic achievement, and gender in shaping their intentions to study abroad is crucial in guiding efforts to promote equal access and inclusive opportunities for students from diverse backgrounds during these unprecedented times.

Data and methodology

Main variables

Outcome Variable

In the present study, Chinese students’ intentions to pursue international education, serves as the primary dependent variable of interest. To measure this, we utilize a survey item that inquired about their post-graduation plans. The available response options for this item encompass the following alternatives: “seeking employment within China,” ‘continuing further studies within China,” “engaging in overseas education,” “establishing a business,” and “sustaining current employment.” Subsequently, a binary variable was constructed to classify these responses, assigning a value of “1” to indicate the selection of “engaging in overseas education” and “0” otherwise.

COVID-19 exposure

The COVID-19 exposure variable is operationalized based on the incidence of COVID-19 confirmed cases at the province level, following the methodology employed by Fu et al. (2021). During the period spanning from mid-January to March 31, 2020, six Chinese provinces (Hubei, Guangdong, Henan, Zhejiang, Hunan, and Anhui) reported the highest numbers of confirmed cases, accounting for 90% of the total COVID-19 cases in mainland China. Subsequently a significant decline in daily new cases was observed from April 2020 onwards. For purposes of this study, the students’ sample is divided into two groups: the treatment group consisting of students from the six aforementioned provinces (experiencing high exposure to COVID-19) is coded as “1”, while the control group comprised students from the other 25 Chinese provinces (experiencing low exposure to COVID-19) and is coded as “0”.

Socio-economic status (SES)

SES is assessed based on their family’s annual income, utilizing a survey item that requested participants to provide their household’s total yearly income, encompassing additional bonuses and allowances. Within this study, we categorize students into distinct SES-groups: those with an annual family income exceeds 500kCNY(69.3kUSD) are classified as having the highest SES, denoted by the value 1. Students whose family’s annual income fell within the range of 150kCNY(20.9kUSD) to 500kCNY(69.3kUSD) received value 2; students get value 3 if their family’s annual income ranged from 30kCNY(4.2kUSD) to 150kCNY(20.9kUSD), and value 4 if the family’s annual income below 30kCNY(4.2kUSD).Footnote 1

Student Academic Achievement

Student academic achievement is assessed by using the following survey question “Please indicate your academic achievement in your class?” Participants were provided with five response options: “top 5% of the class,” “top 6–25% of the class,” “top 26–50% of the class,” “top 50–75% of the class,” and “bottom 25% of the class.” These academic achievements are categorized into five distinct levels, denoted by numbers 1 through 5, wherein academic achievement-1 corresponds to the “top 5% of the class” and academic achievement-5 represents the “bottom 25% of the class.”

Gender

A binary variable is incorporated into the analysis to evaluate the gender disparity in the inclination towards pursuing international study opportunities. The value of 1 is assigned to males, while females are assigned a value of 0.

Control variables

Finally, the statistical model includes several control variables. Firstly, students’ prior overseas education experience is considered, which is binary (1 for students with the experience; 0 for those without).

Secondly, the variable of intention to pursue a doctoral degree is included, represented as a binary indicator (1 for students expressed the intention; 0 for those not expressed). Additionally, the major of the students is incorporated, using a binary variable (1 for majoring in STEM fields; 0 for other fields).

Moreover, the study controls for students’ foreign language proficiency, which was assessed through a survey item comparing their proficiency to the average proficiency within their age group. This measure encompassed languages required by the universities in the host countries, extending beyond English to languages such as German, Japanese, Dutch etc. Foreign language proficiency is coded as follows: 3 for above-average proficiency, 2 for average proficiency, and 1 for below-average proficiency.

Furthermore, the study considers university selectivity, where the highest selectivity universities (985-project) are coded as 4, and the low selectivity universities (private universities) are coded as 1.

These control variables are crucial in the analysis as they may help to mitigate potential confounding factors and allow for a more comprehensive examination of the relationships under investigation.

Data description

This study utilizes data derived from the “Longitudinal Survey of College Student in China”. The survey includes not only basic information, financial status, study experiences, but also their study and career aspirations of students. The survey employed a stratified probability sampling method to ensure a representative cross-section of the diverse student population in China’s higher education system. It encompassed 72 four-year universities across all 31 provinces in China. Our sampling approach sought to reflect the demographic composition of the entire student population. Due to data limitations, this can only be tested for gender. Our sample comprises 55.6% female respondents, which closely aligns with the national gender distribution of 51.6% in higher education. Unfortunately, we were unable to create a more comprehensive comparison based on additional variables due to the absence of detailed national educational statistics and the limitations in data collecting. Two survey rounds were conducted: the initial survey was administered to first-year university students before the COVID-19 pandemic in 2018, followed by a second survey during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021, to follow-up on responses from those who participated in the 2018 survey, and were in their fourth year of study.

A total of 90,027 students completed the 2018-suvey and 17,958 of these students (24.9%) participated in the 2021-survey. For the present study, specifically the matched 2021-data is of interest. After excluding any missing or incomplete responses from either survey, the final sample for this study consisted of 14,385 valid responses. Among the respondents, 55.6% were female, while 44.4% were male (See Table 1).

Table 1 further shows, 2,798 students (19.5%) attended high selective universities (985-project universities), 3,235 students (22.5%) attended selective universities (211-project universities), 5,478 students (38.1%) attended ordinary universities (medium selective universities), and 2,874 students (19.9%) attended private universities (low selective universities).Footnote 2 Considering to students’ academic achievement, our sample consisted of 2,188 students (15.2%) in academic achievement-1(highest), 2,268 students (15.8%) in academic achievement-2, 3,546 students (24.7%) in academic achievement-3, 3,680 students (25.6%) in academic achievement-4, and 2,703 students (18.8%) in academic achievement-5(lowest). Moreover, 1,216 students (8.5%) rated their foreign language proficiency as above average, 9,493 students (66.0%) rated as average, and 3,676 students (25.6%) rated as below average.

1,110 students (7.7%) in our sample came from low-income families, 8,284 students (57.6%) from lower-middle-income families, 3,176 students (22.1%) from upper-middle-income families, and 1,815 students (12.6%) from high-income families. Additionally, 6,124 students (42.6%) in our sample pursued STEM majors, while 8,261 students (57.4%) had other majors. Lastly, 949 students (6.6%) in the sample possessed prior overseas education experience, and 3,500 students (24.3%) aspire to doctoral degree in the future.

Table 1 Descriptive statistics of matched 2021 sample
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Methodology

This study employs a Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Chinese students’ intention to study abroad, considering background characteristics. The DID-estimation is a widely used quasi-experimental research methodology for evaluating the effects of specific interventions or treatments (Goodman-Bacon, 2021). In DID-analyses, two time periods and two groups are considered: during the first period, no individual receives treatment, while in the second period, a portion of the sample is treated, and the rest remain untreated (the control group). By comparing the average change in outcomes experienced by the treated group with that of the control group, researchers can estimate the average treatment impact for the treated subpopulation (Lechner, 2011).

To be accurately assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the propensity of Chinese students to pursue education abroad within our DID framework, we opted for Linear Probability Modeling (LPM)Footnote 3 in conducting our regression analysis. This choice was predicated on the model’s superior interpretability and its efficacy in managing interaction effects, which are pivotal in the DID context. LPM stands out for its straightforward interpretation of coefficients as marginal changes in probability, a feature that proves invaluable for dissecting the nuances of policy impacts and interaction dynamics (Ai & Norton, 2003; Angrist & Pischke, 2008; Wooldridge, 2010). Moreover, LPM’s compatibility with the direct application of conventional econometric techniques for inference, such as the use of heteroscedasticity-robust standard errors, enhances its suitability for our analysis, particularly given the substantial sample size of our study (Angrist & Pischke, 2009).

In our study, the differential exposure of the COVID-19 pandemic across provinces in China during 2020 justifies the use of a difference-in-differences design to estimate the causal effects of the pandemic on the intention of Chinese students to study abroad. Specifically, we considered 2018 and 2021 as the first and second time periods, respectively. We classified students from the six provinces with concentrated COVID-19 cases as the treated group (experiencing high exposure to COVID-19), while the remaining students constituted the control group (experiencing low exposure to COVID-19). Additionally, to account for the influence of other variables on the intention to study abroad, we included appropriate control variables such as pursuing a doctoral degree, majoring in STEM, having overseas experience, university selectivity, and foreign language skills. The DID specification is as follows:

$$Studyabroad= {\upalpha }+ {{\upbeta }}_{1}\bullet \text{T}\text{r}\text{e}\text{a}\text{t}+ {{\upbeta }}_{2}\bullet \text{T}\text{i}\text{m}\text{e}+ {{\upbeta }}_{3}\bullet \text{T}\text{r}\text{e}\text{a}\text{t}\times \text{T}\text{i}\text{m}\text{e}+{\text{C}\text{o}\text{n}\text{t}\text{r}\text{o}\text{l}}_{\text{v}\text{a}\text{r}\text{i}\text{a}\text{b}\text{l}\text{e}\text{s}}$$
(1)

In Eq. (1), Treat is set to 1 if students originate from provinces with high exposure to COVID-19, and 0 otherwise. Time is equal to 1 if the response is provided in 2021, and 0 if it is provided in 2018.

In addition to examining how the COVID-19 pandemic affects students from diverse socioeconomic backgrounds, academic achievement groups, and genders, we introduce an interaction term of Treat, Time, and SES/Academic achievement/Gender. The equation is represented as follows:

$$Studyabroad= {\upalpha }+ {{\upbeta }}_{1}\bullet \text{T}\text{r}\text{e}\text{a}\text{t}+ {{\upbeta }}_{2}\bullet \text{T}\text{i}\text{m}\text{e}+ {{\upbeta }}_{3}\bullet \text{T}\text{r}\text{e}\text{a}\text{t}\times \text{T}\text{i}\text{m}\text{e} \times \text{S}\text{E}\text{S}/\left(\text{A}\text{c}\text{a}\text{d}\text{e}\text{m}\text{i}\text{c}\;\text{a}\text{c}\text{h}\text{i}\text{e}\text{v}\text{e}\text{m}\text{e}\text{n}\text{t}/\text{G}\text{e}\text{n}\text{d}\text{e}\text{r}\right)+{\text{C}\text{o}\text{n}\text{t}\text{r}\text{o}\text{l}}_{\text{v}\text{a}\text{r}\text{i}\text{a}\text{b}\text{l}\text{e}\text{s}}$$
(2)

As inherent to any difference-in-differences design, our approach identifies the causal effect of COVID-19 exposure under the assumption that the intention of Chinese students to study abroad would have followed similar trends in the treated and untreated states in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic (Cordero et al., 2018). One limitation of our data is that it was only collected twice. Consequently, the data does not provide information about pre-existing trends prior to 2018. Since this assumption cannot be directly tested with our data, we gathered six datasets from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC), encompassing, at the province level, GDP statistics, the number of graduates and institutions, changes in education expenditure and income, as well as disposable income data—indicators closely associated with students’ intentions to study abroad (see Appendix 1). All six datasets demonstrate parallel trends between the treatment and control groups, thereby providing robust evidence that the underlying growth trends are irrelevant factors.

Results

Descriptive results

Table 2 shows the percentages within the different categories of the independent and control variables of students that were willing to study abroad, in both 2018 and 2021. As can be seen, between 2018 and 2021, in all categories students are less willing study abroad. Furthermore, Table 2 shows that in both years, high-SES students (SES-1) were more willing to study abroad than low-SES students. Remarkably, while in 2018 the highest achieving students were most inclined to study abroad, in 2021 students from the second lowest achievement group (Academic Achievement-4) were most inclined to do so. Regarding gender, in both years, female students were more inclined to study abroad in both years than male students. In 2018, students attending higher selectivity universities were more willing to study abroad, whereas in 2021, students from the second highest category (211-project universities) were more willing to do so. Finally, in both 2018 and 2021, students with a higher level of foreign language proficiency, increased interest in pursuing a Doctoral Degree, with prior overseas education experience, and majoring in non-STEM fields were all related to a higher intention in studying abroad.

Table 2 Descriptive results on student’s intension to study abroad
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Difference-in-differences results

Table 3 presents the results of the DID-analysis. The estimated coefficient of “Treated” demonstrates a negative relationship, indicating that in both time periods, students from the six provinces with the higher COVID-19 exposure were generally less inclined to study abroad compared to students from other provinces. Furthermore, the negative coefficient for “Time” indicates an overall decrease in students’ inclination to study abroad in 2021 compared to 2018. However, the estimated coefficient of “Treat*Time” is both statistically significant and positive. This finding indicates that between 2018 and 2021, students from the six high COVID-19-exposure provinces exhibited a smaller decline in their intention to study abroad than their counterparts in other provinces, most likely influenced by their experience with the pandemic.

Table 3 Difference-in-differences on high exposure to COVID-19
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Difference-in-differences with interaction results

Tables 4, 5 and 6 report the results of the DID-analysis incorporating the triple interaction terms of Time*Treated*SES, academic achievement, and gender, respectively. This approach enables us to isolate the impact of the pandemic’s exposure on students’ intention to study abroad. It’s crucial to interpret these findings within the specific circumstances of the high-COVID-19 exposure context. By conducting this analysis, we could determine the nuanced impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on the intentions of students with different characteristics to study abroad.

The estimated coefficients for Treated*Time*SES-1 and SES-2 in Table 4 are negative and statistically significant, which implies that the COVID-19 pandemic has diminished the intention of students from high-SES families to study abroad, but at the same time has increased the intention of low-SES students to study abroad.

For academic achievement, Table 5 demonstrates that the triple interaction coefficients on all levels of students’ achievement groups are negative, indicating that students from academic achievement groups other than the top 5% are less likely to study abroad than students from the top 5% academic achievement group, as a result of COIVD-19 exposure although only significant for achievement groups 2 and 4.

Finally, Table 6 indicates that exposure to COVID-19 has no significant effect on the intention of studying abroad among students from different genders.

We created two figures in conjunction with Tables 4, 5 and 6 to enhance the clarity of our results and facilitate a better understanding, these figures can be found in Appendix 2.

Table 4 Difference-in-differences interaction with SES
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SES-4 serves as the reference category for SES in this DID analysis. The effects associated with SES-1, SES-2, and SES-3 are measured in comparison to SES-4. Thus, the coefficients for these categories indicate the magnitude and direction of their differences from the baseline category (SES-4).

Table 5 Difference-in-differences interaction with Academic achievement
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Academic Achievement-1 serves as the reference category for Academic Achievement in this DID analysis. The effects associated with Academic Achievement-2, Academic Achievement-3, Academic Achievement-4, and Academic Achievement-5 are measured in comparison to Academic Achievement-1. Thus, the coefficients for these categories indicate the magnitude and direction of their differences from the baseline category (Academic Achievement-1).

Table 6 Difference-in-differences interaction with Gender
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Gender-0(female) serves as the reference category for Gender in this DID analysis. The effects associated with Gender-1(male) are presented relative to Gender-0 (female). Thus, the coefficients for these categories indicate the magnitude and direction of their differences from the baseline category Gender-0 (female).

Discussion

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted the flow of Chinese students pursue educational opportunities abroad. Prior research has investigated the effects in Chinese student mobility by considering factors such as health-related issues (Mok et al., 2021), alterations in diplomatic and visa regulations (Aaron et al., 2020; Zhao & Mok, 2024), and increased discrimination (França et al., 2024; Ma & Miller, 2021). However, these studies often examine these variables in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and failed to identify the specific effects of this global health crisis on their intentions for international education, as well as whether different groups of students have been affected differently. This absence of knowledge poses challenges for both students and HEIs. Students highly value international study experiences for their future careers, while HEIs heavily depend on foreign students for resources. To address this gap, our research utilizes Difference-in-Differences (DID) analysis on a dataset including 14,385 Chinese students. Our objectives were to investigate the specific impact of the pandemic on their study abroad intentions and explore potential differential effects based on students’ SES, academic achievement, and gender. We elucidated the complex relationship between the pandemic and Chinese students’ intention for studying abroad.

The impact of COVID-19 on Chinese students’ intentions to study abroad

The findings of this study revealed several significant insights into the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Chinese students’ intention to study abroad. Firstly, the DID-results revealed that provinces with higher COVID-19 exposure exhibited reduced inclination to study abroad in both 2018 and 2021. However, intriguingly, between 2018 and 2021 students from high-exposure provinces displayed a greater increase in their intention to study abroad compared to their counterparts in other provinces. This positive effect counteracted the slightly diminished intention observed among students in the high-exposure provinces, indicating that their experience with the pandemic influenced their decision-making process.

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to demonstrate the differential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on study abroad intentions among Chinese students from provinces with varying levels of exposure. By uncovering the complexity of COVID-19 exposure effects across provinces, our research contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the decision-making processes of students. Previous studies predominantly focused on the negative consequences of the pandemic on Chinese students’ study abroad intentions (e.g., Bista et al., 2021). In contrast, our findings present a more nuanced perspective, highlighting that the pandemic’s influence on study abroad intentions are not uniformly negative across all provinces in China.

“Institutional escapism” may be a plausible explanation for this finding. In provinces that were severely affected by the pandemic, the Chinese government has implemented stringent measures. For instance, during the lockdown period in Wuhan, all air, rail, and bus travel was suspended, and access to highways and local roads was restricted with exceptions made for emergency and medical workers. Residents were not allowed to leave their homes, and food supplies were ordered via phone apps and delivered to the doorsteps by community organizations (Fang et al., 2020). The unprecedented severity of these measures may have influenced individuals to reconsider residing in such high-pressure environments.

The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the studying abroad intentions of Chinese students with different background characteristics

The present study additionally explored the impact of the pandemic on pre-existing inequalities related to SES, academic achievement, and gender. The results firstly demonstrated that the COVID-19 pandemic had a more negative effect on the intention of students from high-SES families than on students from low-SES families to study abroad. Furthermore, students from academic achievement groups other than the top 5% were also found to be less likely to study abroad due to COVID-19 exposure. Finally, the study found no significant effect among students from different genders.

We can only speculate for why the pandemic have a relatively more negative effect on the study abroad intentions of high-SES students, even though they are still more willing to study abroad. Potential reasons include that as the COVID-19 pandemic has caused an economic recession, high-SES families experience more psychological panic and economic loss (Xie et al., 2021), which may reduce their intention to study abroad. Moreover, the number of jobs and education opportunities was limited during the pandemic, high-SES students may have more options for both studying abroad and remaining in China. Consequently, they are more likely to reconsider their decision to study abroad and choose to abandon or postpone their plans in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, the very strict measures implemented by the Chinese government to combat COVID-19, which may have been more challenging for low-SES students due to their generally lower-quality living conditions, increase their intention to study abroad. Further research is required to delve into these factors in more detail.

Furthermore, our finding that the COVID-19 pandemic has had positive effects specifically for the highest-achieving students’ intention to study abroad may be explained by the fact that, throughout the course of the pandemic, it has been observed that these students have had fewer difficulties adapting to the shift towards online education than their counterparts, resulting in higher achievement levels than before the pandemic (Engzell et al., 2021). Since high academic achievement is frequently a key admission requirement of foreign universities, it is reasonable to assume that the students with the highest academic achievement will conclude that their chances of being admitted to a foreign university have increased. Quite possibly, this realization has led to a strong intention to study abroad.

Limitations

We believe that the present study has provided valuable insights into the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on Chinese students’ intentions to study abroad, as well as whether students with various background characteristics have been affected differently. However, some limitations should be noted. The first concern is the use of DID-methodology. This study’s data only includes two time periods, limiting the ability to analyze the best-fitted pre-treatment trends for the treated and control groups to rule out the possibility that other unobserved factors affect the outcome variable and thereby bias the DID-estimator. Such bias may be caused by failure to control for unobserved confounding variables, which in this case could be policy changes, international relationship shocks, or even social events that differentially affect treated and control groups. This is a typical DID-method issue that cannot be resolved with the current data. A different study design, such as implementing this survey multiple times in the future or collecting data on the number of Chinese students studying abroad at the provincial level could help in resolving this issue by providing a reliable analysis of pre-treatment trends. Nonetheless, as a second best, the study at hand uses six datasets that are closely associated with students’ intentions to study abroad to provide strong evidence that the underlying growth trends are irrelevant factors.

Second, although this study takes into consideration the most significant variables, such as SES, academic achievement, and gender, it does not account for all potential disparities among Chinese students. There may be additional variables, such as regional differences, cultural background, and the individual attitudes of students that influenced the intention to study abroad differently due to COVID-19 and warrant further investigation. Additionally, because students’ SES and academic achievement were measured categorically, some variations within variables were not considered. It is possible that small variations within the different categories may have led to small differences in the results.

Furthermore, the utilization of self-reported academic achievement is recognized as a limitation due to the possibility of disparities between self-assessment and actual performance as evidenced in the literature (Li & Zhang, 2021). The use of self-reported measures may not fully capture the nuanced relationship between actual academic standing and the decision to study abroad. Future research could improve the accuracy by cross-checking self-reported rankings with objective academic records.

Conclusions

In conclusion, this study illuminates a nuanced impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on students’ intention to pursue education overseas. Specifically, we found that those students who had a high exposure to the pandemic were paradoxically more motivated to study abroad after the pandemic. However, this pattern was complicated by the disparate effects observed among high-SES students and those with lower academic achievement. We found that both these groups were more negatively affected in terms of their interest in studying abroad.

Our findings necessitate several policy actions. While our results indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic had a more negative effect on the intentions of students from high-SES families to study abroad, implementing safety measures and enhancing communication channels post-pandemic are crucial for all students, regardless of their SES. This is because studying abroad presents significant opportunities for personal and academic growth, which are particularly valuable for students from low-SES backgrounds, emphasizing the need for equitable access to these transformative educational experiences It is imperative that these measures are tailored to meet the unique concerns and needs of students from varied backgrounds, thereby fostering an inclusive environment and ensuring equal access to information for all, highlighting the importance of equitable opportunities in international education. Additionally, it is vital for the Chinese government to adopt policies aimed at stimulating the economy to mitigate financial losses experienced by families across all SES levels, thereby reducing their anxiety and increasing their interest in studying abroad.

Furthermore, to address the specific challenges faced by low-SES students, creating targeted financial aid programs, offering cultural integration support, and fostering a supportive academic environment are crucial to diminish the enduring gaps in access to international education opportunities. These initiatives should create equal opportunities and guarantee that students from ensure that students underprivileged backgrounds have the essential resources and support to pursue their international education aspirations.

Additionally, as high-achieving students continue to have the greatest intention to study abroad, it is imperative for destination countries and HEIs to focus on this group and facilitate visa policy support to avoid rejections. For students with low-academic achievements, targeted interventions, such as academic and language skill support are required to encourage their pursuit of international education.

Overseas universities could consider the possibility of establishing long-term partnerships with Chinese institutions. The decline in potential applicants in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic may be an indication that the number of prospective Chinese international students continues to decline in the coming years. As such, institutions should not only focus on immediate recruitment efforts but also plan for sustained engagement over the long term.

Finally, for most Chinese students, studying abroad is a considerable investment. It is vital for international institutions to not only provide financial incentives but also to cultivate enriching social and cultural experiences. In this sense, studying abroad is considered as a comprehensive life experience, rather than merely an educational opportunity. Therefore, institutions should establish strategies for students to engage in social and cultural activities outside of their academic courses.

Educational institutions and policymakers are tasked with creating an inclusive, comprehensive strategy to adjust to these changing dynamics. Their goal should be to sustain and promote equitable access to international education, thereby fostering global awareness among future generations.