Introduction

As one of the most important international student-exporting countries in the world, the willingness of Chinese students to study abroad will greatly affect the pattern of international higher education. The sudden outbreak of COVID-19 caused the blockade of borders, visa restrictions, and suspension of classes in major destination countries for studying abroad, which have led to a cliff-like decline in the number of Chinese students studying abroad since 2020. Unlike other countries, China has always been accustomed to strict epidemic prevention measures, such as the nationwide closure of cities at the beginning of 2020, which has made remarkable achievements in epidemic prevention. With the normalization of the epidemic and the popularization of vaccines, China still takes strict prevention measures, such as restricting travel and closing various places, including residential areas, public places, schools, and other measures, which lead to the frequent closure of universities and long-term home-based online education for students. This may change the students’ understanding of global higher education, believing that the epidemic situation in other countries is too serious, thus hindering their willingness to go abroad. With the gradual liberalization of epidemic measures in other countries, Chinese students have gradually reduced their panic about the epidemic situation in other countries.

According to some studies, COVID-19 has led Chinese higher education to a new stage. On the one hand, the epidemic restricts the physical mobility of students (Altbach and De Wit, 2020; Mok, 2020), and the international political, economic and cultural conflicts mixed with the epidemic further change the willingness of Chinese students to study abroad. Chinese strict epidemic prevention policy and various reports that attach importance to the epidemic, combined with the influence of Chinese traditional awareness that life safety and physical health lie first, have kept the public worried about the epidemic. It has become the main reason for hindering students’ willingness to study abroad. On the other hand, since the beginning of the 21st century, China’s higher education has developed rapidly. Two rounds of “Double First-Class” construction have achieved remarkable results, solidified the foundation of higher education and retained more high-quality talents of local higher education. Data show that after the outbreak of COVID-19, the number of Chinese students in Britain, America, and Australia decreased significantly (Martel, 2020; Mercado, 2020). According to the UK University Enrollment Data, the number of students from mainland China in the 2020–2021 academic year fell by 4.8% compared with the previous, which is the first decline year since 2016 (HESA, 2023). The 2021 U.S. Open Doors Report shows the number of new foreign students in America dropped by 46% in 2021 compared with the previous academic year, with the number of students from mainland China falling by 14.8% (Open Doors 2021 Report (2021)), which is the first decline in the number of Chinese students studying in 20 years.

Another kind of study although acknowledging the impact of the epidemic on the international mobility of students, believes that the impact is short-lived and the impact of the epidemic on the internationalization of higher education is limited (Altbach and De Wit, 2020). The first wave of the epidemic led to a sharp decline in the number of new international students, but with the normalization of the epidemic and the popularization of vaccines, countries open to international students seem to be experiencing a rebound. For example, relevant reports show that the current number of international students in the UK is higher than that before the epidemic (HESA, 2023). Although the number of new students from China is still lower than that of the pre-epidemic, the scale of students from other countries has increased (National Statistics, 2022). To some extent, it also shows that China’s strict epidemic prevention measures have led to high public concern about the epidemic, unlike students from other countries, causing Chinese students’ willingness to study abroad to be still affected by policy guidance. However, as the epidemic prevention policy continues to increase, the public’s criticism of “excessive prevention” has begun to appear. Especially with the re-outbreak of the epidemic in China, the restrictions of prevention policy are still severe, which seriously affects the normal life of residents. The public’s concern about the epidemic seems to have reached a state of fatigue. In addition, Chinese universities have repeatedly implemented online education for the past three years, and students lack in school learning and campus living experience, which leads to difficulty in ensuring the quality of learning (Tian et al., 2020). In the state of exhaustion from the epidemic and the opening of overseas universities, these factors may become one of the driving forces for the rebound of Chinese students’ willingness to study abroad.

So, under the guidance of government policies, to what extent has COVID-19 changed the willingness of Chinese students to study abroad? What changes have taken place in the willingness of Chinese students to study abroad in the early, middle, and late stages of the epidemic? Is the epidemic giving birth to a new push–pull framework for global student mobility? Most of the related existing studies have discussed the negative impact of COVID-19 on international students’ mobility, but there are few discussions on the changes in student mobility at different stages of the epidemic, and there is no literature to delve into the updating of push-and-pull theoretical model based on this. To answer the above questions, we conducted three questionnaire surveys on more than 270 universities in mainland China in the early stage (2020), middle stage (2021), and late stage (2022) of the epidemic. This paper attempts to construct a new push-and-pull theoretical model by revealing the neglected push-and-pull factors in the latest, while dynamically presenting the changing trend of Chinese students’ willingness to study abroad at different stages of COVID-19. The empirical evidence of this study also helps to study international higher education in COVID-19, such as international enrollment policy and international regional cooperation, etc.

New framework of push–pull theory for studying abroad

Traditional push–pull theory

The push–pull theory is one of the most important and commonly used theories to explain international student mobility. According to the traditional push–pull theory, student mobility is formed by the interaction of the outflow “push” (PUSH) and the inflow “pull” (PULL) (Hou et al., 2011). Chinese and foreign scholars have conducted a lot of studies on the specific push-and-pull elements of the “push–pull” theory (Bogue, 1977; Moon, 1995). Among them, the push factor is mainly the influence factor that urges people to leave their original location (Etzo (2011)), which was initially considered as a kind of factor that has a negative impact on the quality of life (Li and Bray, 2007). It emphasizes some characteristics of the original location of the migrants contribute to the mobility decision (Brown, 1986). The key factors are mainly concentrated in three aspects: political, economic, and natural factors. Similar to the push factor, the pull factor refers to the positive characteristics that attract the population to the destination, and these characteristics also mainly concentrate on the political, economic, and natural aspects, including social and political environment, employment opportunities, career development, income, education level, living environment, cultural atmosphere, etc. (Wöcke and Heymann, 2012; Mazzarol and Soutar, 2002; Cheung and Yuen, 2016).

However, the push-and-pull factors are not completely in a state of “tug-of-war”. Scholar Everett S. Lee has made two important amendments to the push–pull theory, one of which is to add “intervening obstacles” and “personal factors” to the “push–pull” model, mainly including distance, material barriers, language and cultural differences, and personal value judgment on these factors; the second is to introduce “push” and “pull” into the outflow and inflow areas, that is, every place has countless factors that hinder people from going to this place, and also has many factors that attract people to go to this place (Lee, 1966). Lee’s initiatives of constantly adding push-and-pull indicators, especially the innovative thinking of giving each factor both positive and negative directions, have been widely used by subsequent scholars. Many scholars have followed this main idea of theoretical improvement and continued to carry out several “push–pull” theoretical reforms, mostly focusing on fine-tuning the “intervening obstacles” factors. This trend of theoretical reform has continued today.

Some studies on the push-and-pull factors of international student mobility show that the pull factors of attracting international students in developed countries mainly include high-quality higher education, more opportunities for higher education, high returns on capital, advanced scientific research conditions, scientific and technological awards, and opportunities to stay abroad (immigration policy) (Kondakci, 2011; Prayag and Ryan, 2011; King and Raghuram, 2013). The push factors mainly include the high cost of higher education, unstable political environment, racial discrimination etc. (Beine et al., 2014). Among them, the main push factors for Chinese students to study abroad on a large scale include insufficient opportunities for higher education, low academic level of universities, poor educational infrastructure, insufficient employment opportunities, and the value-added of overseas degrees in the domestic market (Altbach, 1998). Studies in recent years have shown that with the popularization of higher education in China, the current pressure of China’s college entrance examination and postgraduate entrance examinations is increasing (Muthanna and Sang, 2016), causing the depreciation of domestic university degrees (Mok, 2016). This has intensified the competition of Chinese students for foreign university degrees, while foreign high-level universities adopt higher admission standards, which further leads to the anxiety and ambition of Chinese students to study abroad (Hansen and Thøgersen, 2015; Yan, 2013). Besides, China’s rapid economic growth since the opening up has helped to enable the affordability of international education (Cebolla-Boado et al., 2018), providing economic guarantees for students to study abroad. The main pull factors include a stable political environment, good social security, a strong cultural identity, an absence of language barriers, a strong sense of belonging, and others (Souto-Otero et al., 2013).

Literature and theoretical framework

In the existing literature on the study of Chinese students’ willingness to study abroad, scholars mostly use the push–pull theory to explain how students’ decision to study abroad is affected by the interaction between push/pull factors and student characteristics (Cheng et al., 2017; Yang, 2018), emphasizing the important role of students, their families, family socioeconomic status, and the interaction between home and host countries (Fang and Wang, 2014; Cheng et al., 2017). Chinese students study abroad for a variety of purposes, mainly including the pursuit of entering high-ranking and high-reputation universities (Lee, 2017) and improving future employment competitiveness (Cheah and Shimul, 2023). Western countries are the center of knowledge production, so the reputation and value of Western higher education institutions and their degrees are widely recognized by Chinese universities, students, parents and other subjects (Cebolla-Boado et al., 2018). China’s higher education system is criticized for lack of innovation (Chao et al., 2019), while international education can improve their future employability. Besides, most studies show that the academic gains and cultural gains of studying abroad are also important factors, such as improving language proficiency, pursuing critical thinking instead of Chinese test-taking skills, strengthening social networks, gaining an international perspective, experiencing different cultures, increasing immigration opportunities, etc. (Thieme, 2017). The relatively weak level of higher education in China and the high pressure of the college entrance examination and postgraduate entrance examinations have also promoted the wave of studying abroad (Hansen and Thøgersen, 2015). At the same time, the continuous improvement of the national social and economic level and Chinese parents’ emphasis on children’s education have also laid an economic and ideological foundation for students to study abroad (Wang, 2020). In addition, recent studies have shown that the most important influence on students’ decision-making to study abroad is not the push–pull factors themselves but the students’ perception of these factors (Lin, 2020). However, COVID-19 has changed the weight of each factor that affects students and their families in study abroad decisions and country choices. For example, COVID-19 has made health protection and safety a priority in decision-making (Marginson, 2020). Most studies have shown that due to factors such as the risk of the epidemic, political tensions, and rising nationalism, Chinese students’ willingness to study abroad has dropped sharply (Mok et al., 2021; Yang et al., 2020), but some experts believe that the impact of the epidemic on the wave of studying abroad is limited (Altbach and de Wit, 2020; Jordan and Hartocollis, 2020), and the internationalization trend of higher education will return to normal after the epidemic.

Various factors of the push–pull theory are constantly changing. Existing studies have found that COVID-19 is becoming a new important factor affecting student international mobility, but no research has explored it in depth to enrich the push–pull theory. Based on this, this study attempts to construct a new theoretical framework, incorporating some factors caused by COVID-19 and itself as new variables into the push–pull theoretical model to reveal the law of talent mobility that has not been found in existing literature. This may contribute to the improvement of the push–pull theory to add some overlooked push-and-pull factors in the latest.

Following Lee’s basic theory, after the outbreak of COVID-19, the analysis framework of the push-and-pull factors of Chinese students studying abroad needs to be adjusted in a timely manner. On the one hand, the power comparison of traditional push-and-pull factors may have changed significantly. For example, the influence of the political environment, social security, and other factors regarding culture and safety (e.g. geopolitical tension) may be strengthened. On the other hand, the epidemic itself may become part of the new push-and-pull factor. To this end, this paper constructs a new push–pull analysis framework for Chinese students studying abroad in the post-epidemic era (see Fig. 1). It mainly includes: (1) the push of the original place (domestic push) and pull of destinations (study abroad pull), which have positive impacts on Chinese students’ willingness to study abroad; (2) the pull of original place (domestic pull) and push of destinations (study abroad push), which have negative impacts on Chinese students’ willingness to study abroad; (3) the intermediate variables, mainly include personal factors such as personal characteristics, family background, academic foundation, etc., which may cause differential effects to study abroad.

Fig. 1: Theoretical framework.
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COVID-19 changes the various push and pull factors that affect Chinese students studying abroad.

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Methodology

Data and sample

The data of this study comes from the “Survey of Undergraduate/Master/Doctoral/Postdoctoral Students’ Willingness and Choice of Studying Abroad under COVID-19” jointly carried out by our research team. The survey was conducted in three rounds. The first round was from November to December 2020, the second round was from November to December 2021, and the third round was from November to December 2022. On the one hand, the first round of the survey can be used as a pre-test to test the rationality and effectiveness of the questionnaire. On the other hand, the changing trend of students’ willingness to study abroad can be analyzed according to the elapse of time. Our research team mainly targets college students in Mainland China, adopts the snowball sampling method, and combines offline and online survey systems to issue questionnaires. The total database of the survey was formed by inputting paper questionnaires and sorting out online questionnaires. A total of 13,191 students from 270 universities in Mainland China participated in the questionnaire survey. On this basis, the effective samples were screened by removing the questionnaires that had not reached the standard in filling time, 70% of the continuous questions in the scale were answered in a straight line, and some important parts had abnormal values. Then, through a comprehensive manual inspection, all kinds of situations such as random answers, negative answers and irrelevant answers are eliminated to ensure the quality of the data. After data screening and cleaning, a total of 12,248 valid questionnaires were obtained as the database of this study finally. See Table 1 for specific variable distribution. It is worth noting that studying abroad in this study in overseas regions, including Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and other foreign countries, while studying in China generally means studying in Mainland China.

Table 1 Statistics of key variables.
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This study carried out three rounds of surveys, in which a stratified sampling method was used. Corresponding universities were selected from different regions according to the number of institutions in the eastern, central, and western regions of mainland China. Electronic questionnaires were conducted through the gatekeepers of universities that could be contacted in each region. The initial target is to distribute about 10,000 copies per round. However, due to the impact of COVID-19 and the differences in closed policies, the number of questionnaires distributed in each round is not the same. During the first round, especially since the epidemic had just begun, the strict epidemic prevention and control measures in most areas led to the closure of campuses, so that no one organized and coordinated the investigation. Therefore, 2054 questionnaires were recovered (the effective number is 1980). During the second round, the epidemic was not serious, and most areas had already been unsealed, so it could be completed with a high probability. A total of 9044 questionnaires were recovered (the effective number was 8281). The third round was like the first round. Due to repeated outbreaks of epidemic in some areas, and severe government lockdowns, a total of 2093 questionnaires were recovered (the effective number was 1987). In addition, to ensure research ethics, the questionnaire did not collect personal information (such as name, student ID, etc.), so the three rounds of surveys cannot guarantee the same sample.

Questionnaire design

Based on the above theoretical framework, our research group conducted a questionnaire design. The content of the questionnaire covers the push-and-pull factors of studying abroad at both domestic and abroad levels. Mediating variables include individual basic characteristics (gender, age, university type, student type, etc.), family background (home location, parents’ education level, parents’ occupation, family income), and outcome variables (choice of studying abroad).

The Pull and Push factors include eleven scale questions. The “study abroad pull” (the expected harvest of studying abroad) includes four items, involving academic, economic, cultural and social levels, and the “study abroad push” (the expected difficulties in studying abroad) includes three questions, involving academic, economic and cultural levels. The “domestic pull” (the attractiveness of studying at home) includes three items, involving academic, economic, and cultural levels, and the “domestic push” (the expected difficulties in studying at home) includes one item involving educational opportunities, educational methods, teaching resources and so on. The Likert six-point scale was used in the questionnaire (1 = completely disagree, 2 = disagree, 3 = slightly disagree, 4 = slightly agree, 5 = agree, 6 = completely agree). The reliability coefficients of those 11 items are 0.6235, 0.9439, 0.9106, 0.9495, 0.9033, 0.9246, 0.9290, 0.9459, 0.9316, 0.9471 and 0.9645, respectively. Except that the reliability coefficient of the first item is 0.6235 (It indicates that the scale’s reliability is average but acceptable. After any item is deleted, the reliability coefficient does not rise significantly, so it suggests that the item should not be deleted), the reliability coefficients of other items are above 0.93. It shows that the scale’s reliability is very good and can meet the measurement requirements well. KMO and Barrett’s spherical tests are conducted for 11 items. KMO values are 0.877, 0.905, 0.783, 0.861, 0.877, 0.879, 0.927, 0.835, 0.840, 0.904, and 0.958 respectively, which are mostly distributed between 0.83 and 0.95, P < 0.000, indicating that the questionnaire had good validity.

In addition, the choice of studying abroad mainly includes five dimensions: whether their willingness to study abroad has changed after COVID-19; the goal of studying abroad and the reasons for the change (if change); if they have the opportunity to study abroad, the most desirable countries or regions ranking; if they are admitted by universities at different levels in mainland China, are they willing to study abroad; if they are admitted by overseas universities at different levels, are they willing to study abroad. Please see Table 2 for the statistics of key variables.

Table 2 Statistics of key variables.
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Results

Changes in Chinese students’ willingness to study abroad

Data analysis shows that the epidemic is weakening the willingness of Chinese college students to study abroad. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, the Chinese government has vigorously publicized the importance of epidemic prevention and introduced a series of strict control measures. Influenced by the traditional culture that life safety comes first and “While his parents are living, a son should not go far abroad”, the policy has a great guiding effect on people, especially elderly parents, who believe that studying abroad will face serious safety risks.

Before the outbreak of COVID-19, there were 2606 subjects who were willing to study abroad, but the number decreased to 1506 after the outbreak of the epidemic, a decrease of 40.14%. As to the subjects who still want to study abroad, about on-half of them changed their target destination, and most of them changed to areas where the epidemic is not severe. Meanwhile, the proportion of parents who support their children to study abroad has also dropped dramatically, from 1186 to 551, a decrease of 53.45%. Besides, in the three rounds of surveys, the reduction rates of students’ willingness to study abroad were 42.42%, 44.51%, and 36.59%; and the reduction rates of parents’ willingness to support their children’s study abroad were 54.19%, 55.31%, and 52.32%. The survey results show that students who changed their plans to study abroad after COVID-19 mainly had the following reasons: worrying about the tension of the overseas epidemic (86.93%); worrying about the impact of online courses on the quality of learning (69.44%); worrying about restrictions on entry, visas and flights (67.98%); lack of support from family members (66.08%), worrying about overseas hostility towards Asian students (62.88%), worrying about the delayed enrollment or suspend classes of overseas universities (62.87%), reduced family income due to the epidemic, which is not enough to support studying abroad (38.63%), etc.

The above results show that the epidemic has greatly changed the willingness of Chinese college students to study abroad. We will analyze it from two aspects: the change in the push–pull theory mechanism and the change in Chinese students’ willingness to study abroad.

Changes in the push-and-pull factors before and after COVID-19

Based on the “push–pull” theoretical model, this paper divides the contributing factors of Chinese students’ willingness to study abroad into four categories: “study abroad pull” factors, “study abroad push” factors, “domestic pull” factors and “domestic push” factors (details in Table 2). Examining the relationship between various factors and students’ willingness to study abroad, we find that the “study abroad pull” and “domestic push” are significantly positively correlated with students’ willingness to study abroad, while the “study abroad push” and “domestic pull” are significantly negatively correlated with students’ willingness to study abroad.

Before COVID-19: the study abroad pull and domestic push are strong

Control variables were added, and regression analysis was conducted on the willingness to study abroad before COVID-19 with the study abroad pull factors, study abroad push factors, domestic pull factors, and domestic push factors as independent variables. The results show that the Model 1–8 regression equations all pass F test (VIF < 10), and the fitting conditions (R2) are good. See Table 3.

Table 3 Logit regression result 1.
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Some control variables have significant impacts on the willingness to study abroad, mainly as follows: compared with ordinary universities, 985 project university students have a strong willingness to study abroad; compared with undergraduate students, masters and doctors are more willing to study abroad, and the difference between doctors and undergraduate students is greater; compared with students residing in the metropolis, students living in the countryside have a weaker willingness to study abroad; students who have discussed further education with their parents are more inclined to go abroad; students and their parents who have traveled or lived abroad are more willing to study abroad; students with relatives and friends abroad are more willing to study abroad; students whose parents support studying abroad (before COVID-19) are more inclined to go abroad (two questions were designed refers to this, namely whether parents support studying abroad before and after COVID-19, respectively. Regression 1 uses whether parents support studying abroad before COVID-19, while Regression 2 in the following uses whether parents support studying abroad after COVID-19).

In terms of study abroad pull factors, cultural gain (Model 2, β2 = 0.225, P2 < 0.001), academic gain (Model 3, β3 = 0.142, P3 < 0.001) and social gain (Model 4, β4 = 0.165, P4 < 0.001) are significantly positively correlated with the willingness to study abroad. In terms of study abroad push factors, only cultural difficulty (Model 5, β5 = −0.058, P5 < 0.05) and academic difficulty (Model 6, β6 = −0.115, P6 < 0.001) are significantly negatively correlated with the willingness to study abroad, while economic difficulty and political difficulty do not have negative significant impacts on the willingness. As to the domestic pull factors, there is only academic attractiveness (Model 7, β7 = −0.060, P7 < 0.05) that is significantly negatively correlated with the willingness to study abroad, while cultural attraction and economic attraction do not have significant negative impacts on the willingness. As to domestic push factors, the expected difficulty (Model 8, β8 = 0.138, P8 < 0.001) is significantly and positively related to the willingness to study abroad.

After COVID-19: the study abroad pull is weak, the study abroad push is strong; China’s epidemic prevention becomes part of the new push-and-pull factors

This study constructs a Logit regression model of the influencing factors of students’ willingness to study abroad after COVID-19. See Table 4.

Table 4 Logit regression result 2.
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First, control variables are added, and regression analysis is carried out on the willingness to study abroad after COVID-19 with various independent variables, including the study abroad push-and-pull factors, and adds “worries about the overseas epidemic” to independent variables. The results show that Model 9–15 regression equations all pass the F test (VIF < 10), and fitting conditions R2 are all good. The control variables included gender, university level, learning level, home location, parents’ education level, father’s occupation, whether their parents discuss further education with them, whether their parents support studying abroad (after COVID-19), whether they and their parents have been overseas, and whether they have relatives or friends abroad have significant impacts on the willingness to study abroad after COVID-19. In terms of study abroad pull factors, cultural gain (Model 9, β9 = 0.163, P9 < 0.001), academic gain (Model 10, β10 = 0.148, P10 < 0.001), and economic gain (Model 11, β11 = 0.094, P11 < 0.01) are still significantly positively correlated with willingness to study abroad. However, social gain no longer has an obvious impact on the willingness to study abroad. In terms of study abroad push factors, cultural difficulty (Model 12, β12 = −0.155, P12 < 0.001), academic difficulty (Model 13, β13 = −0.164, P13 < 0.001), political difficulty (Model 14, β14 = −0.126, P14 < 0.001) and “worries about overseas epidemic” (Model 15, β15 = −0.097, P15 < 0.01) are all significantly negatively correlated with the willingness to study abroad. We can see that concern about the overseas epidemic has become a new and obvious push factor for studying abroad.

Second, control variables are added, and regression analysis is conducted on the willingness to study abroad after COVID-19 with the independent variables including domestic push-and-pull factors and added “the recognition of China’s success in epidemic prevention” as a new independent variable. The results show that Model 16–20 regression all pass the F test (VIF < 10), and the fitting conditions R2 are good. Similar to the above, the control variables have significant impacts on the willingness to study abroad. As to domestic pull factors, cultural attractiveness (Model 16, β16 = −0.113, P16 < 0.001), academic attractiveness (Model 17, β17 = −0.210, P17 < 0.001), economic attractiveness (Model 18, β18 = −0.154, P18 < 0.001) and “recognition of the success of epidemic prevention and control in China” (Model 20, β20 = −0.090, P20 < 0.01) are all significantly negatively correlated with the willingness to study abroad, while as to domestic push factors, the expected study difficulty (Model 19, β19 = 0.215, P19 < 0.001) is significantly negatively correlated with the willingness. The recognition of the success of China’s epidemic prevention has become a new significant domestic pull factor.

The differences before and after COVID-19: the study abroad pull and domestic push are significantly weakened; the study abroad push, and domestic pull are significantly enhanced

To further explore the change in the mechanism of willingness to study abroad after COVID-19, we compare the results of regression models of willingness to study abroad before and after the epidemic.

As to control variables, the main changes after COVID-19 are the following. On the one hand, the influence of student type on the willingness to study abroad has been weakened, mainly shown as the difference between undergraduates and masters is no longer significant, and just the difference between undergraduates and doctors remains. In addition, the impact of students’ and parents’ overseas travel and living experience, whether have relatives and friends overseas on the willingness is weakened. On the other hand, the influence of gender became significant, and the willingness of male students is stronger. The gap in the willingness of students at different levels of universities has widened. The difference in students’ willingness between large cities and rural areas is greater. The difference in students’ willingness between 985 project universities and ordinary universities has become greater. The impact of parents’ education level and father’s occupation on their children’s willingness becomes significant in some groups. Besides, the impact of parental support for studying abroad on students’ willingness has significantly increased after the epidemic. It shows that COVID-19 has a greater negative impact on the willingness to study abroad of females, undergraduate students, students from ordinary universities, and those from economically underdeveloped areas.

As to the push-and-pull factors of studying abroad and at home, first, COVID-19 has weakened the positive relationship between the study abroad pull and the willingness to study abroad. The impact of academic gain and economic gain on willingness is slightly strengthened after COVID-19, while cultural gain and social gain are strongly weakened. It also suggests that those who still want to study abroad after COVID-19 are more clinked to pursue academic and economic benefits, rather than focusing on cultural and social benefits. Secondly, COVID-19 has led to an increase in the negative relationship between the study abroad push and the willingness to study abroad, which is mainly manifested in the fact that the impact of cultural difficulty and academic difficulty on the willingness is strongly strengthened, and political difficulty are from insignificant to significant. Thirdly, the negative impact of domestic pull on willingness is strongly enhanced. The impact of domestic academic attractiveness on willingness is strengthened, and cultural attractiveness and economic attractiveness are from insignificant to significant. Fourthly, the domestic push on the willingness is slightly strengthened on the willingness after COVID-19, which is a relatively objective factor. Besides, worries about the overseas epidemic and recognition of China’s success in epidemic prevention have become new study abroad push factors and domestic pull factors after the epidemic. Please see Fig. 2 for the changes in the mechanism of push-and-pull factors.

Fig. 2: Changes in the mechanism of push-and-pull factors.
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“➜” represents significant influence, and its length represents the magnitude of influence; “⇢” represents no significant influence. Each factor corresponds to two arrows. The first represents the impact before COVID-19 and the second represents the impact after COVID-19.

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It can be seen that the objective academic factor is less affected by the epidemic. As the survey of the Report on Chinese Students’ Overseas Study of 2021 reported by New Oriental shows, the demand for studying abroad for relatively blind groups in the past has declined, while the goals of students who still have plans to study abroad have become clearer to pursue the quality of higher education, while other purposes such as just experiencing foreign cultures have been weakened (New Oriental, 2021).

The change in Chinese students’ willingness to study abroad

The “pull” of overseas universities has been significantly weakened; the “pull” of domestic high-level universities has been significantly enhanced

This survey sets up three admission scenarios. If students are admitted by the top 100 overseas universities in the world, the highest proportion is to “apply for postponement of admission” (accounting for nearly 30%), followed by “still study abroad” and “transfer to mainland Chinese universities”, which are close to each other. If they are admitted by the top 100–200 or outside the top 200 overseas universities in the world, the most frequent choice is to “transfer to mainland Chinese universities”. As the level of admitted universities decreases, the proportions of choosing to study abroad and applying for delayed enrollment decrease significantly, while most of them would apply to universities in mainland China. Please see Fig. 3. We also set up three situations of being admitted by universities in mainland China. Among them, the attractiveness of the top ten universities is the most obvious, followed by other key universities such as 985/211 project universities. The attractiveness of ordinary universities has also increased slightly. The results show that COVID-19 has greatly decreased and enhanced the attractiveness of overseas and domestic universities to Chinese students, respectively. Under the guidance of China’s policy, considering the overseas epidemic, even if admitted to a high-level overseas university, more students would prefer to postpone enrollment or give up studying abroad. Please see Fig. 4.

Fig. 3
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Choices of being admitted to overseas universities after COVID-19.

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Fig. 4: Percentage of willingness to study abroad under different conditions.
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From 1 to 6 means from “strong unwilling” to “strong willing”.

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The “pull” of America, Britain, and Australia has dropped sharply; the “pull” of some parts in Asia has increased significantly

We analyzed the “comprehensive score of the attractiveness of overseas study destinations” and the “ranking of students’ intentioned destinations of studying abroad” before and after the epidemic. The results are shown in Table 5. It shows that the scores and rankings of the major regions for studying represented by America, Britain, Canada and Australia, as well as Japan and South Korea in Asia, have significantly decreased, especially in America. At the same time, those two indicators of Hong Kong, Macao, Russia, Malaysia, and other Asian countries, neighboring regions with friendly attitudes towards China have increased significantly. On the one hand, the geographical trend of the choice of studying abroad is more obvious. The popularity of traditional destination countries with serious epidemics, such as America, Australia, and Japan has declined, while Chinese students are more willing to study in neighboring countries and regions, which is closely related to the “pull” factors such as the cost of studying abroad, the security situation and the convenience of mobility. On the other hand, the choice of studying abroad is more related to the political situation. The popularity of America, members of the “Five Eyes Alliance”, Japan, and other related countries has been greatly reduced. In the Chinese view, those countries are not conducive to epidemic prevention leading to the deterioration of the security situation, also with the rise of anti-globalization and de-Sinicization. While the popularity of Russia and other countries with friendly strategic relations with China has increased.

Table 5 The comprehensive score of the attractiveness of overseas study destinations before and after COVID-19.
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The epidemic has become a new contributing factor for students returning from studying abroad

This study also examined the willingness of the subjects to return to China if they study abroad, to further explore students’ follow-up intentions after COVID-19. Data show students have a strong desire to return home as soon as possible after graduation. This study also sets up a comparative situation of work, life, and economy at home and abroad, and found that the largest proportion of students chose to return home for employment regardless of whether the domestic environment was “better”, “equal” or “worse” than overseas. Influenced by national policies and public opinion guidance, the serious overseas epidemic situation has become the consensus of the Chinese. Chinese students who are used to strict epidemic prevention measures believe that it is not safe to study abroad, and they will return home as soon as possible after graduation even if they go abroad. This is like the findings of some investigations. Research has shown that under the impact of COVID-19, some international students returned to China for shelter (Ma and Miller, 2021). According to the Report on Chinese Students’ Overseas Study released by New Oriental, due to successful domestic epidemic prevention and control, the number of students choosing to return to China for employment immediately after graduation in 2021 has increased, reaching the highest level in recent years (New Oriental, 2021).

Excessive epidemic prevention measures lead to a decrease in excess self-protect behaviors in the post-epidemic period

By comparing the effects of study abroad pull and push, domestic pull and push on students’ willingness to study abroad in three rounds of the survey, it is found that the significant positive relationship between study abroad pull and willingness has gone from insignificant to significant, and the negative correlation between the study abroad push, and the willingness is reduced from 2020 to 2022. In terms of domestic push and pull, the significant negative correlation between domestic pull and willingness is weakened, and the positive correlation between domestic push and willingness changes from insignificant to significant from 2020 to 2022. To sum up, compared with the first round of survey results, in the last two rounds, especially the last round, the positive impact of study abroad pull, and domestic push is enhanced, while the negative impact of domestic pull is weakened.

In addition, by comparing the three rounds of surveys, it’s found that among all the factors affecting the decision to study abroad, students in 2020 paid more attention to the epidemic than all other factors with an average score of 5.372 (the full score is 6), while it changed to the second-ranking factor with an average score of 5.358 in 2021, and changed to the eighth-ranking factor with an average score of 5.081 in 2022. Students are most concerned about higher education quality, admission requirements, tuition fees and other academic issues in 2022. Compared with 2020, the respondents in 2022 paid less attention and were less worried about the overseas epidemic.

According to the time of three rounds of questionnaires, the first round was conducted at the end of 2020, when the epidemic lasted for one year. China has made great achievements in the prevention and control of the epidemic. However, the overseas epidemic was rampant, and the epidemic situation was repeated in many countries. Some countries were not strong enough to fight the epidemic, which led to a sharp reduction in the willingness of Chinese students to study abroad in the first year of the epidemic. The second round was conducted at the end of 2021, and the epidemic lasted for two years. With the wide popularization of vaccines, people have gradually increased their acceptance of the epidemic. However, due to China’s extensive reports on its strong epidemic resistance, while other countries are unable to control the epidemic due to economic and public pressure, and continue to publicize dangerous situations such as epidemic variation, most Chinese people still have a more rigorous and rigid attitude towards the epidemic. Although the trend of studying abroad has changed, the fear of the epidemic is still one of the major factors hindering students from studying abroad. The third round was conducted at the end of 2022. The epidemic has lasted for 3 years. With the liberalization of the epidemic in other countries and the weakening of COVID-19, some people’s fear of the epidemic has entered a period of fatigue. China still takes high-intensity epidemic prevention measures, including city closures, travel restrictions, and online classes in schools to a large extent. This has gradually been criticized by the public as excessive epidemic prevention. Some people call for personal freedom, and some even speculated that the epidemic was controlled by the interest groups behind it. This round of questionnaires was issued at a time when public opinion was rising, which also had a profound impact on college students. Many students began to accept the epidemic and gradually reduced their concerns about it.

Conclusion and discussion

Conclusion

This study reveals the impact of COVID-19 on Chinese college students’ willingness to study abroad through empirical survey data, and the conclusions are of positive significance for predicting Chinese students’ willingness to study abroad, forecasting the follow-up impact of COVID-19, and analyzing the future global student mobility pattern. There are three main conclusions.

First, COVID-19 is changing the push-and-pull model of studying abroad for Chinese students. This study shows that the study abroad pull and domestic push have significant positive impacts on the willingness to study abroad, and the study abroad push and domestic pull have significant negative impacts on the willingness to study abroad. Before COVID-19, the study abroad pull and domestic push factors were significant in attracting Chinese college students to study abroad. above results are partly consistent with the conclusions of the existing literature. For example, the factors that attract Chinese students to study abroad mainly include high-quality higher education abroad, more economic benefits and future employment opportunities abroad (Cebolla-Boado et al., 2018; Cozart and Rojewski, 2015), domestic fewer higher education opportunities and lower education quality (Liu and Zhu, 2019). However, different from the existing literature, this study did not find the negative impact of the financial burden of studying abroad and the tense foreign political environment on the willingness to study abroad, nor did it find that the domestic stable political environment, a strong sense of belonging, and no language barriers have negative effects on the willingness to study abroad. This study found that before the epidemic, Chinese students were more inclined to study abroad because of the attractiveness of studying abroad.

After COVID-19, it is found that among the various push-and-pull factors of studying abroad and at home, except for the objective academic factor which is less affected by the epidemic, other factors are affected by the epidemic to a large degree. COVID-19 has greatly weakened the positive impact of the study abroad pull and domestic push on the willingness to study abroad, and significantly enhanced the negative impact of the study abroad push and domestic pull on the willingness to study abroad. This is consistent with the conclusion of existing studies that students are more willing to stay at home after COVID-19 (Mok et al., 2021). Besides, the epidemic itself and related elements are expected to become new push-and-pull factors. The results show that the severity of overseas epidemics and the success of epidemic prevention in China have significant negative impacts on Chinese students’ willingness to study abroad. As some scholars believe, the pandemic has prioritized health security and safety in their decision-making (Marginson, 2020; Durnin, 2020). Meanwhile, it also confirms the views of some scholars that COVID-19 has changed the weight of various push-and-pull factors in the decision-making of studying abroad (Mok et al., 2021). Yu (2021) believes that COVID-19 not only directly affects students’ willingness to study abroad, but also has changed the willingness of Chinese students to study abroad through various factors such as political, economic, and cultural factors. They believe that the epidemic has changed students’ cognition of different push–pull factors but have not given specific explanations. This has been concretely reflected in the conclusions of this study. For example, the social benefits of studying abroad no longer have an effect. However, the cultural, political, and academic difficulties of studying abroad have all increased, such as the geopolitical tension (Yang et al., 2020), the decrease in family income and insufficient support for studying abroad, and concerns about hostility towards Asian students (Hu et al., 2022), etc.

Second, Under the guidance of Chinese public opinion and strict epidemic prevention measures, the willingness of Chinese students to study abroad has been greatly reduced after COVID-19. The willingness and choice of Chinese students to study abroad are affected by the political issues of the country. In the early stage of the epidemic (2020), nearly half of those who intend to study abroad canceled their overseas study plans. In the middle and late stages of the epidemic (2021 and 2022), the willingness to study abroad has rebounded slightly, but it is difficult to return to the growth before the epidemic in the short term. In this process, the attractiveness of overseas universities has been significantly weakened (elite universities still have strong attraction), while the attractiveness of domestic universities has been greatly enhanced. This is consistent with the views of some scholars who believe that the attractiveness of domestic universities, especially high-level universities, has increased after the epidemic in China (Mok, 2020). The difference is that most existing studies have conducted surveys at different time periods, respectively, and not have conducted multiple rounds of the same sample surveys, while this study dynamically displays the willingness of Chinese students of the same sample to study abroad during different periods of the epidemic. Meanwhile, the epidemic has changed students’ preference for studying abroad destinations. Universities in Asia have become popular areas for Chinese college students, while the status of traditional destinations such as European and American areas has declined, especially in the traditionally popular areas for studying abroad represented by America. This finding is also one of the common conclusions of relevant research (Liu et al., 2021; Mok et al., 2021; Durnin, 2020; Cheah and Shimul, 2023). This study also finds more details that the willingness to study in Russia and other countries with friendly attitudes towards China has increased. In addition, the epidemic has further accelerated the growth of the rate of overseas returnees and may promote the arrival of a new tide of returning.

Third, excessive epidemic prevention measures in China hinder students’ willingness to study abroad in the early and middle stages of the epidemic but have the opposite effect in the latest period. At the initial stage of the epidemic, China’s epidemic prevention measures achieved great success. With the national policy on the epidemic and the media’s propaganda on the dangers of the epidemic, the public had a deep concern about the overseas epidemic, thus preventing students from studying abroad. However, with the normalization of the epidemic, people’s acceptance of the epidemic has improved (Cheng and Agyeiwaah, 2022). Under the same strict epidemic prevention measures, some people questioned the national policy and criticized its excessive epidemic prevention, which seriously hindered people’s freedom of life such as travel and study. Especially in the latest period, people’s tolerance of epidemic prevention measures has been declining, which is also reflected in the rising willingness of college students to go abroad. It can be seen that the excessive epidemic prevention measures and the publicity of the overseas epidemic have played a guiding role in the early and middle stages of the epidemic. Students tend to study in China and reduce their willingness to study abroad. With the normalization of the epidemic, the effect of the excessive epidemic prevention measures has begun to loosen, and students’ willingness to study abroad has rebounded. At present, with the continuing epidemic situation, the willingness of Chinese mainland college students to study abroad is still changing, and the “ebb and flow” of the push-and-pull model of Chinese and overseas universities is still in the process of dynamic evolution.

Discussion

This study revealed the changes and trends of Chinese college students’ willingness to study abroad during the epidemic, showing that COVID-19 seriously hindered their willingness to study abroad. With the normalization of the global epidemic and the popularization of vaccination, Chinese acceptance of the epidemic has improved. However, affected by traditional awareness that attaches great importance to life safety, ideology and strict national prevention policies, Chinese people still attach great importance to epidemic prevention and the safety of studying abroad, thus some scholars believe that the severity of epidemic situations overseas and the effectiveness of prevention have become important factors in their decision-making process of studying abroad in a short term. Under the guidance of government policies, some studies find that repeated epidemics and passive anti-epidemic activities in some countries have weakened the willingness of Chinese students to study abroad (Liu et al., 2021). On the other hand, with the improvement of China’s higher education development in recent years, the success of China’s prevention and control of the epidemic has further greatly increased the attractiveness of mainland universities in the post-epidemic period.

In essence, the hindrance of the epidemic to Chinese students’ willingness to study abroad is not a denial of the overseas education’s value, but stems from the concern about the international political environment, consideration of safety and health, and of the costs and benefits of studying abroad. The gap in higher education level between China and western countries cannot be caught up in a short time, the pursuit of international high-quality higher education, the economic benefits brought by overseas study, and the contradiction between supply and demand of domestic high-quality educational resources will still be the core factors that promote Chinese students studying abroad (Mok et al., 2021). Therefore, after the epidemic situation slows down, those with higher education quality advantages represented by Europe and America will still become popular destinations for Chinese students and the traditional power of higher education will still be the center of higher education in the world.

For foreign universities, countries that recruit Chinese students as one of the main sources of students should be prepared for a decline in the number of students from China, especially institutions that rely financially on the tuition fees of international students, such as those in Australia (Raghuram, Sondhi (2022); Marginson, 2020). According to data from the official website of the Australian Department of Education, before 2020, the proportion of international students in Australia increased steadily. From 2016 to 2019, the proportion of international students was 26.8%, 28.5%, 30.7%, and 32.4%, and affected by the epidemic, this proportion in 2020 and 2021 decreased by 6.3% and 10%, respectively, compared with the last year (Australia Government (2023)). At the same time, the future destinations of Chinese students studying abroad will shift from European and American countries to Asia areas represented by Hong Kong (Mok et al., 2021). Those Asian areas destinations can formulate appropriate strategies to attract more Chinese-qualified students. In addition, COVID-19 has brought many negative effects, such as anti-globalization trends, so strengthening regional cooperation is crucial, and the trend of regional internationalization will be further strengthened in Asia in the future (Wang and Sun, 2021). For Chinese universities and government, on the one hand, the epidemic may change some mainland students’ willingness to study abroad, and the attractiveness of studying in China has increased. Therefore, Chinese higher education institutions can establish partnerships with some popular destinations for studying in Asia (such as Hong Kong). On the other hand, under the current situation of increasing pressure for postgraduate entrance examinations and fierce competition in China’s domestic higher education (Mok and Wu, 2016), the epidemic has prompted more students to stay in China for education, which will lead to further pressure increase in student enrollment and employment. Thus, alleviating the employment pressure of Chinese higher education students urgently requires deep thinking from relevant departments.

Implication

The main innovation of this study is that it breaks the unitary framework of the previous questionnaires, and dynamically shows the changing trend of Chinese college students’ willingness to study abroad through the analysis of three rounds of questionnaires. In the theoretical sense, on the one hand, it finds that the epidemic itself and its related factors can become new push–pull factors and builds a new theoretical framework to provide empirical evidence for enriching the push–pull theory under the latest trends. This study also specifically expounds on how the epidemic affects the changes of various push–pull factors, and clarifies the students’ perceptions of push–pull factors under the influence of the epidemic. This has important implications for the updating of push-and-pull theory with the times. On the other hand, this study fills some of the international research gaps on the important issue of talent mobility, and provides some inspiration for further research, such as exploring whether sudden global issues such as the epidemic have a temporary or irreversible impact on global talent mobility. In practical terms, this study is beneficial for inspiring countries to think about the international of higher education. For example, China can take this opportunity to enhance the attractiveness of domestic higher education, while other countries represented by Australia may consider building emergency measures to cope with the impact of sudden issues such as the global epidemic on their higher education. In addition, some of the results of this study indicate that excessive epidemic prevention leads to students’ rebellious psychology, which may also trigger some thoughts of Chinese policy formulation.

Limitation

Some limitations of this study exist. On the one hand, this study used one-way cross-sectional data to predict and analyze the research questions. Conducting research through different conditions of pre-epidemic and post-epidemic in the questionnaire can achieve the purpose of analyzing the differences in students’ willingness to study abroad before and after COVID-19, but it cannot really obtain the actual situation of students before the epidemic. However, the outbreak of the epidemic is an objective and irresistible event, which cannot be predicted in advance. Therefore, research can take the form of a follow-up survey and carry out the questionnaire survey in fixed years in the future. If the samples in the baseline survey year are still in university when the new round of survey is carried out, they will be taken as long-term tracking objects until they graduate. On this basis, continue to enrich the survey samples in each round of the survey to eliminate the problems such as the decrease in sample size caused by the departure of the previous round of objects. On the other hand, this study collects data by questionnaire, which mainly measures variables in the form of scale questions. Although the research shows that the scale questions have good reliability and validity, it may be vulnerable to the influence of fatigue when students answer the questionnaire. Therefore, the following research can appropriately increase interviews with different types of students, using mixed methods to deeply explore the occurrence mechanism of students’ willingness to study abroad.