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The future range of two Thymus daenensis subspecies in Iran under climate change scenarios: MaxEnt model-based prediction

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Abstract

The geographical distribution of species has been significantly affected by human activities, which has led to changes in the ranges of many species in terms of latitude and altitude. To assess the effects of climate change on the distribution of species and determine the suitability of their habitats, species distribution models (SDMs) have been developed. This study aimed to use the MaxEnt model to develop SDMs for Thymus daenensis subs. daenensis and Thymus daenensis subs. lancifolius in Iran under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. The objective was to identify the crucial bioclimatic (n = 6) and topographic (n = 1) variables that affect their distribution and predict how their distribution may change under different climate scenarios. The results showed that the most significant factors influencing the distribution of the two taxa were the slope and mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9). The MaxEnt modeling was effective, as indicated by all Area under the Curve values being over 0.9. Based on the projections, the two subspecies are expected to experience a decrease in area in the coming years. These results can be useful in developing adaptive management strategies to protect and sustainably utilize these species in the face of global climate change. Special attention should be given to conserving T. d. subsp daenensis and T. d. subsp lancifolius considering their significant habitat loss in the future.

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All the data generated/ analyzed during the study are available with the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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  1. Department of Medicinal Plants, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Arak University, Arak, 38156-8-8349, Iran

    Naser Hosseini & Mansour Ghorbanpour

  2. Department of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Management, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

    Naser Hosseini & Hossein Mostafavi

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  1. Naser Hosseini
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  2. Hossein Mostafavi
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  3. Mansour Ghorbanpour
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N.H supervised the research, performed the experiment and analyzed the data. H.M and M.G. advised the research and revised the manuscript critically. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Naser Hosseini or Mansour Ghorbanpour.

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Hosseini, N., Mostafavi, H. & Ghorbanpour, M. The future range of two Thymus daenensis subspecies in Iran under climate change scenarios: MaxEnt model-based prediction. Genet Resour Crop Evol (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10722-024-01998-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10722-024-01998-1

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