Terrorism Risk Forecasting by Ideology
- 514 Downloads
The purpose of the present study is to produce foresights on terrorism. For the first time in the literature, we test the predictive validity of risk terrain modeling to forecast terrorism. Because the relevant literature suggests that target selection and the places where terrorist attacks occur are related to a group’s strategies, we also investigate whether and how violent terrorist acts vary with respect to their surroundings in the same jurisdiction when the ideology is the point of comparison. Separatist and leftist terrorist groups committed 1152 violent terrorist acts between 2008 and 2012 in Istanbul, Turkey. Our analysis begins with a comparison of targets and risk factors by the ideology of the perpetrators for 857 separatist and 295 leftist terrorist incidents. After identifying high-risk locations, we test the predictive validity of risk terrain modeling. The study results showed that context and spatial influence—the risky areas of terrorism—vary by the nature of the ideology in the jurisdiction. Practical implications also are discussed.
KeywordsTerrorism Risk-forecasting Geography Ideology Target
- Anarumo, M., Kennedy, L., & McGarrell, E. (2011). The practitioner’s view of the terrorist threat. Crime and Terrorism risk: Studies in Criminology and Criminal Justice, 56–79.Google Scholar
- Anti-Terror Law in Turkey, Law No: 3713. (1991). http://www.justice.gov.tr/basiclaws/Law_on_Figh.pdf
- Bahgat, K., & Medina, R. M. (2013). An overview of geographical perspectives and approaches in terrorism research. Perspectives on Terrorism, 7(1), 38–72.Google Scholar
- Braithwaite, A., & Johnson, S. D. (2012). Space–time modeling of insurgency and counterinsurgency in Iraq. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 28(1), 31–48.Google Scholar
- Brown, D., Dalton, J., & Hoyle, H. (2004). Spatial forecast methods for terrorist events in urban environments. Intelligence and Security Informatics. https://doi.org/10.1007/b98042.
- Caplan, J. M. (2011). Mapping the spatial influence of crime correlates: A comparison of operationalization schemes and implications for crime analysis and criminal justice practice. Cityscape, 13(3), 57–83.Google Scholar
- Clarke, R. V., & Newman, G. (2006). Outsmarting the terrorists. Westport, CT: Praeger.Google Scholar
- Findley, M. G., Braithwaite, A., Young, J. K., Marineau, J. F., & Pascoe, H. (2015). The local geography of transnational terrorism. In International Studies Association Annual Meeting, New Orleans, Louisiana.Google Scholar
- Johnson, S. D., & Braithwaite, A. (2009). Spatio-temporal modelling of insurgency in Iraq. In J. D. Frielich & G. Newman (Eds.), Reducing terrorism through situational crime prevention (pp. 9–32). New York: Criminal Justice Press.Google Scholar
- Jones, S. G., & Libicki, M. C. (2008). How terrorist groups end: Lessons for countering al Qa'ida. Rand Corporation.Google Scholar
- Libicki, M. C., Chalk, P., & Sisson, M. (2007). Exploring terrorist targeting preferences (Vol. 483). Santa Monica: Rand Corporation.Google Scholar
- Madensen, T., & Eck, J. E. (2008). Spectator violence in stadium settings. Washington, DC: Office of Community Oriented Policing Services, U.S. Department of Justice.Google Scholar
- Onat, I. (2016). An analysis of spatial correlates of terrorism using risk terrain modeling. Terrorism and Political Violence. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2016.1215309.
- Ozer, M., & Akbas, H. (2011). The application of situational crime prevention to terrorism. Turkish Journal of Police Studies, 13(2), 179–194.Google Scholar
- Savitch, H. V. (2014). Cities in a time of terror: Space, territory, and local resilience. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
- Schmidt, G., Goffeney, J., & Willis, R. (2007). Impact of uncertainty on terror forecasting. Washington, DC: Naval Research Lab, Information Technology Division.Google Scholar
- Wright, A. L. (2013). Terrorism, Ideology and Target Selection. Retrieved June 28, 2017, from Princeton University: https://www.princeton.edu/politics/about/file-repository/public/Wright_on_Terrorism.pdf