Abstract
This study is dedicated to the detection and attribution of changes in annual streamflow, maximum and mean winter snow water equivalent (SWE), start and end dates of seasonal snow cover, and its duration in three Arctic river basins (the Northern Dvina, Taz, and Indigirka) located in the European part of Russia, West, and East Siberia in different natural conditions. The observations of the above characteristics are rather scarce to detect statistically significant trends. At the same time, the available observations make it possible to calibrate the key parameters of the SWAP model, apply for hydrological simulations, and validate the model. Then, following the approach suggested within the framework of the international ISIMIP3a project, long-term simulations are performed for each basin using observational (factual) climate data, characterized by long-term changes, and counterfactual de-trended climate data. A comparison of factual and counterfactual simulations allows us to attribute the detected changes (in terms of trends) in the analyzed variables to climatic drivers. Statistically significant positive trends in streamflow are attributed to changes in annual precipitation for the Northern Dvina and Indigirka, and to the joint impact of increasing precipitation and warming, which resulted in permafrost thawing, for the Taz River. Negative trends in the basin-averaged end dates of snow cover and its duration as well as positive trends in winter and maximum SWE are detected for all basins and attributed to joint influence of changes in seasonal precipitation, air temperature, and solar radiation. The results highlight the vulnerability of Arctic river basins to climate change.
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Notes
According to the IPCC WGII-AR5 Chapter 18 definition, “climate change refers to any long-term trend in climate, irrespective of its cause” (Cramer et al. 2014, p. 985).
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Acknowledgements
The authors are grateful to the organizers of ISIMIP for providing datasets on meteorological data and land surface parameters, as well as to Valentina Krysanova and Fred Hatterman for coordinating the Regional Water Sector within ISIMIP3a. We also acknowledge the All-Russia Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information − World Data Center (RIHMI-WDC) for the snow dataset. River runoff data were kindly provided by the Global Runoff Data Center (56068 Koblenz, Germany). The authors are also grateful for two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments.
Funding
Simulations of snow cover formation for all river basins and streamflow simulations for the Taz and Indigirka basins with further analysis were carried out within the framework of the State Assignment theme of WPI RAS (№ FMWZ-2022-0001). Modelling of the Northern Dvina River runoff with subsequent detection and attribution of its changes was financially supported by the Russian Science Foundation (Grant 22-27-00495).
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All authors contributed to the study’s conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by EK and ON. Model simulations and writing the draft version of the manuscript were performed by ON. Analysis of the obtained results was carried out by YG and ON. The draft version of the manuscript was reviewed by EK and YG.
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Nasonova, O., Gusev, Y. & Kovalev, E. Detection and attribution of changes in streamflow and snowpack in Arctic river basins. Climatic Change 176, 148 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03626-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03626-w