Abstract
Using Hadley Global Environment Model 2 - Earth System and Max Planck Institute Earth System Model simulations, we assess the impact of global warming and stratospheric geoengineering on deciduous fruit production in Himachal Pradesh (the second-largest apple-producing state in India). The impacts have been assessed for the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) global warming scenario, and a corresponding geoengineered scenario (G3) from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which stratospheric aerosols are increased for 50 years from 2020 through 2069 to balance the global warming radiative forcing, and then aerosol precursor emissions are terminated. We used the period 2055–2069 (with the largest geoengineering forcing) and the period 2075–2089 (beginning 5 years into the termination phase) and evaluated winter chill and growing season heat accumulation. We found that although stratospheric geoengineering would be able to suppress the increase in temperature under an RCP4.5 scenario to some extent during both switch-on and switch-off periods, if the geoengineering was terminated, the rate of temperature increase would be higher than RCP4.5. The agroclimatically suitable area is projected to shift northeastwards (to higher elevations) under RCP4.5 as well as G3 during both periods. However, during the switched on period, geoengineering would restrict the shift, and areas of Shimla and Mandi districts (most suitable under the current climate) would not be lost due to global warming. Even during the switched off period, before the climate returned to RCP4.5 levels, the above areas would, although to a lesser extent, have reduced harmful climate effects from global warming. However, the area of suitable land (the intersection of soil and agroclimatic suitability) would decrease in both periods for RCP4.5 as well as G3, because as more high-elevation regions become agroclimatically suitable, they do not have suitable soils to support cultivation. Geoengineering could benefit deciduous fruit production by reducing the intensity of global warming; however, if geoengineering was terminated abruptly, the rate of change in temperature would be quite high. This could lead to a rapid change in land suitability and might result in total crop failure in a shorter period compared to RCP4.5.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Atkinson CJ, Brennan RM, Jones HG (2013) Declining chilling and its impact on temperate perennial crops. Environ Exp Bot 91:48–62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envexpbot.2013.02.004
Becker JJ, Sandwell DT, Smith WHF et al (2009) Global bathymetry and elevation data at 30 arc seconds resolution: SRTM30_PLUS. Mar Geod 32:355–371. https://doi.org/10.1080/01490410903297766
Bhagat RM, Singh S, Sood C et al (2009) Land suitability analysis for cereal production in Himachal Pradesh (India) using Geographical Information System. J Indian Soc Remote Sens 37:233–240. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12524-009-0018-6
Cesaraccio C, Spano D, Duce P, Snyder RL (2001) An improved model for determining degree-day values from daily temperature data. Int J Biometeorol 45:161–169
Cesaraccio C, Spano D, Snyder RL, Duce P (2004) Chilling and forcing model to predict bud-burst of crop and forest species. Agric For Meteorol 126:1–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.03.002
Chandler WH (1942) Deciduous orchards. H. Kimpton, London (printed in America)
Chaudhary P, Bawa KS (2011) Local perceptions of climate change validated by scientific evidence in the Himalayas. Biol Lett 7:767–770. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2011.0269
Collins WJ, Bellouin N, Doutriaux-Boucher M et al (2011) Development and evaluation of an Earth-System model – HadGEM2. Geosci Model Dev 4:1051–1075. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-1051-2011
Dash SK, Hunt JCR (2007) Variability of climate change in India. Curr Sci 93:782–788
Erez A (2000) Bud dormancy; phenomenon, problems and solutions in the tropics and subtropics. In: Temperate fruit crops in warm climates. Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, pp 17–48
Erez A, Fishman S, Linsley-Noakes GC, Allan P (1990) The dynamic model for rest completion in peach buds. Acta Hortic:165–174. https://doi.org/10.17660/ActaHortic.1990.276.18
Ferraro AJ, Griffiths HG (2016) Quantifying the temperature-independent effect of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on global-mean precipitation in a multi-model ensemble. Environ Res Lett 11:034012. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034012
Fishman S, Erez A, Couvillon GA (1987) The temperature dependence of dormancy breaking in plants: mathematical analysis of a two-step model involving a cooperative transition. J Theor Biol 124:473–483. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-5193(87)80221-7
Ghosh SP (1999) Deciduous fruit production in India. Deciduous fruit production in Asia and the Pacific, In, pp 38–56
Giorgetta MA, Jungclaus J, Reick CH et al (2013) Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. J Adv Model Earth Syst 5:572–597. https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20038
Gudmundsson L, Bremnes JB, Haugen JE, Engen-Skaugen T (2012) Downscaling RCM precipitation to the station scale using statistical transformations–a comparison of methods. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 16:3383–3390. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3383-2012
Guo L, Dai J, Ranjitkar S et al (2014) Chilling and heat requirements for flowering in temperate fruit trees. Int J Biometeorol 58:1195–1206. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-013-0714-3
Guo L, Xu J, Dai J et al (2015) Statistical identification of chilling and heat requirements for apricot flower buds in Beijing, China. Sci Hortic (Amsterdam) 195:138–144. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2015.09.006
Ikinci A, Mamay M, Unlu L et al (2014) Determination of heat requirements and effective heat summations of some pomegranate cultivars grown in Southern Anatolia. Erwerbs-Obstbau 56:131–138. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10341-014-0220-8
IPCC (2014) Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. In: Edenhofer O, Pichs-Madruga R, Sokona Y, Farahani E, Kadner S, Seyboth K, Adler A, Baum I, Brunner S, Eickemeier P, Kriemann B, Savolainen J, Schlömer S, von Stechow C, Zwickel T, Minx JC (eds) Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York
Kihoro J, Bosco NJ, Murage H (2013) Suitability analysis for rice growing sites using a multicriteria evaluation and GIS approach in great Mwea region, Kenya. Springerplus 2:1–9. https://doi.org/10.1186/2193-1801-2-265
Kishore DK, Pramanick KK, Singh AK et al (2015) Chilling unit accumulation at Shimla, Himachal Pradesh, India—a predominantly apple (Malus × domestica Borkh) growing region. Int J Fruit Sci 15:117–128. https://doi.org/10.1080/15538362.2014.931171
Kravitz B, Robock A, Boucher O et al (2011) The geoengineering model intercomparison project (GeoMIP). Atmos Sci Lett 12:162–167. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.316
Linkosalo T (2000) Mutual regularity of spring phenology of some boreal tree species: predicting with other species and phenological models. Can J For Res 30:667–673. https://doi.org/10.1139/x99-243
Linvill D (1990) Calculating chilling hours and chill units from daily maximum and minimum temperature observations. HortScience 25:14–16
Luedeling E (2012) Climate change impacts on winter chill for temperate fruit and nut production: a review. Sci Hortic (Amsterdam) 144:218–229. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2012.07.011
Luedeling E, Brown PH (2011) A global analysis of the comparability of winter chill models for fruit and nut trees. Int J Biometeorol 55:411–421. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-010-0352-y
Luedeling E, Zhang M, Girvetz EH (2009a) Climatic changes lead to declining winter chill for fruit and nut trees in California during 1950–2099. PLoS One 4:e6166. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0006166
Luedeling E, Zhang M, Luedeling V, Girvetz EH (2009b) Sensitivity of winter chill models for fruit and nut trees to climate change. Agric Ecosyst Environ 133:23–31
Mann ME, Bradley RS, Hughes MK (1998) Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. Nature 392:779–787. https://doi.org/10.1038/33859
Mishra SK, Sahany S, Salunke P et al (2018) Fidelity of CMIP5 multi-model mean in assessing Indian monsoon simulations. npj Clim Atmos Sci 1:39. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0049-1
Olesen JE, Bindi M (2002) Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy. Eur J Agron 16:239–262
Pérez FJ, Ormeño NJ, Reynaert B, Rubio S (2008) Use of the dynamic model for the assessment of winter chilling in a temperate and a subtropical climatic zone of Chile. Chil J Agric Res 68:198–206. https://doi.org/10.4067/s0718-58392008000200010
Pongratz J, Lobell DB, Cao L, Caldeira K (2012) Crop yields in a geoengineered climate. Nat Clim Chang 2:101–105. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1373
Ramirez-Villegas J, Jarvis A (2010) Downscaling Global Circulation Model Outputs: The Delta Method Decision and Policy Analysis Working Paper No. 1
Rana RS, Bhagat RM, Kalia V, Lal H (2015) The impact of climate change on a shift of the apple belt in Himachal Pradesh. In: Handbook of Climate Change and India. Routledge
Renton A (2009) Suffering the science: climate change, people, and poverty. Oxfam Policy Pract Clim Chang Resil 5:53–113
Richardson E, Seeley S, Walker D (1974) A model for estimating the completion of rest for “Redhaven” and “Elberta” peach trees. HortScience 9:331–332
Robock A (2016) Albedo enhancement by stratospheric sulfur injections: more research needed. Earth’s Futur 4:644–648. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000407
Santos JA, Costa R, Fraga H (2017) Climate change impacts on thermal growing conditions of main fruit species in Portugal. Clim Chang 140:273–286. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1835-6
Schwartz MD, Hanes JM (2010) Continental-scale phenology: warming and chilling. Int J Climatol 30:1595–1598. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2014
Sehgal JL (1990) Soil resource mapping of different states of India: why and how?
Sheffield J, Goteti G, Wood EF (2006) Development of a 50-year high-resolution global dataset of meteorological forcings for land surface modeling. J Clim 19:3088–3111. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3790.1
Shrestha UB, Gautam S, Bawa KS (2012) Widespread climate change in the Himalayas and associated changes in local ecosystems. PLoS One:7. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0036741
Singh J, Patel NR (2017) Assessment of agroclimatic suitability of apple orchards in Himachal Pradesh under changing climate. J Agrometeorol 19:110–113
Srivastava AK, Rajeevan M, Kshirsagar SR (2009) Development of a high resolution daily gridded temperature data set (1969-2005) for the Indian region. Atmos Sci Lett 10:249–254. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.232
Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498
Tuan NT, Qiu J, Verdoodt A et al (2011) Temperature and precipitation suitability evaluation for the winter wheat and summer maize cropping system in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China. Agric Sci China 10:275–288. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1671-2927(11)60005-9
Vedwan N, Rhoades RE (2001) Climate change in the western Himalayas of India: a study of local perception and response. Clim Res 19:109–117. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr019109
Xia L, Robock A, Cole J et al (2014) Solar radiation management impacts on agriculture in China: a case study in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). J Geophys Res Atmos 119:8695–8711. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020630
Yang H, Dobbie S, Ramirez-Villegas J et al (2016) Potential negative consequences of geoengineering on crop production: a study of Indian groundnut. Geophys Res Lett 43:11,786–11,795. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071209
Yasutomi N, Hamada A, Yatagai A (2011) Development of a long-term daily gridded temperature dataset and its application to rain / snow discrimination of daily precipitation. Glob Environ Res 15:165–172
Acknowledgments
Prof. S. K. Mishra is thankfully acknowledged for discussions. Alan Robock is supported by the US National Science Foundation grant AGS-1617844. We acknowledge NBSS, the Princeton hydrology group, CMIP, and GeoMIP, for making the data available.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding authors
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Electronic supplementary material
ESM 1
(DOCX 3138 kb)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Singh, J., Sahany, S. & Robock, A. Can stratospheric geoengineering alleviate global warming-induced changes in deciduous fruit cultivation? The case of Himachal Pradesh (India). Climatic Change 162, 1323–1343 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02786-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02786-3