Abstract
Thermal growing conditions of temperate fruit and nut species in Portugal are assessed by two indices: growing degree hours (GDH) and chilling portions (CP). The first evaluates growing season heat accumulation (February–October), while the second determines chill accumulation during dormancy (October–February). These two indices are estimated based on gridded daily minimum and maximum temperatures from a gridded observation-based dataset (E-OBS). Both indices are statistically downscaled to a 1 km grid over mainland Portugal for 1981–2015 (35 years). Furthermore, multi-model climate change projections are provided using four EURO-CORDEX global-regional climate model chains under two future emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, 2041–2070). Overall, increases of heat accumulation and decreases of chilling accumulation are projected over most of Portugal. However, owing to frequent above-optimum temperatures for temperate fruit trees, decreases of heat accumulation are expected over inner southern Portugal, which combined with significant reductions of winter chill make this region the most affected by climate change. Crop-specific GDH/CP diagrams for eight fruit classes (carob tree, almond tree, chestnut tree, citrus fruits, fresh fruits trees, olive trees, pine nut trees and vines) are analysed taking into account their current spatial distributions. Shifts in their thermal conditions under future scenarios are discussed. Thermal growing conditions of fruit species are innovatively assessed using suitable heat and chilling accumulation measures at very-high spatial resolution and under current and future climates in Portugal. These results may support the Portuguese fruit production sector in planning future strategies to cope with climate change.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Achmakh L, Bouziane H, Aboulaich N, Trigo MM, Janati A, Kadiri M (2015) Airborne pollen of Olea europaea L. in Tetouan (NW Morocco): heat requirements and forecasts. Aerobiologia 31:191–199. doi:10.1007/s10453-014-9356-0
Anandhi A (2016) Growing degree days - ecosystem indicator for changing diurnal temperatures and their impact on corn growth stages in Kansas. Ecol Indic 61:149–158. doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.08.023
Anderson JL, Richardson EA, Kesner CD Validation of chill unit and flower bud phenology models for’Montmorency’ sour cherry. In, 1986. International Society for Horticultural Science (ISHS), Leuven, Belgium, pp 71-78. doi: 10.17660/ActaHortic.1986.184.7
Andrade C, Fraga H, Santos JA (2014) Climate change multi-model projections for temperature extremes in Portugal. Atmos Sci Lett 15:149–156. doi:10.1002/asl2.485
Atkinson CJ, Brennan RM, Jones HG (2013) Declining chilling and its impact on temperate perennial crops. Environ Exp Bot 91:48–62. doi:10.1016/j.envexpbot.2013.02.004
Baldocchi D, Wong S (2008) Accumulated winter chill is decreasing in the fruit growing regions of California. Clim Change 87:S153–S166. doi:10.1007/s10584-007-9367-8
Ballesteros R, Moreno MA, Ortega JF (2015) Calibration and validation of thermal requirement models for characterizing phenological stages. Ital J Agrometeorol-Riv Ital Agrometeorol 20:47–62
Bosshard T, Carambia M, Goergen K, Kotlarski S, Krahe P, Zappa M, Schar C (2013) Quantifying uncertainty sources in an ensemble of hydrological climate-impact projections. Water Resour Res 49:1523–1536. doi:10.1029/2011WR011533
Campoy JA, Ruiz D, Egea J (2011) Dormancy in temperate fruit trees in a global warming context: a review. Sci Hortic 130:357–372. doi:10.1016/j.scienta.2011.07.011
Cardoso LS, Bergamaschi H, Bosco LC, De Paula VA, Nachtigal GR (2015) Chill units for apples trees in the region of Vacaria - RS Brazil. Rev Bras Frutic 37:289–295. doi:10.1590/0100-2945-136/14
Cesaraccio C, Spano D, Snyder RL, Duce P (2004) Chilling and forcing model to predict bud-burst of crop and forest species. Agric For Meteorol 126:1–13. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.03.002
Chung U, Mack L, Yun JI, Kim SH (2011) Predicting the timing of cherry blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in response to climate change. PLoS One 6:e27439. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0027439
Costa AC, Santos JA, Pinto JG (2012) Climate change scenarios for precipitation extremes in Portugal. Theor Appl Climatol 108:217–234. doi:10.1007/s00704-011-0528-3
Costa R, Fraga H, Fernandes PM, Santos JA (2016) Implications of future bioclimatic shifts on Portuguese forests. Region Environ Change:1–11. doi:10.1007/s10113-016-0980-9
Darbyshire R, Webb L, Goodwin I, Barlow S (2011) Winter chilling trends for deciduous fruit trees in Australia. Agric For Meteorol 151:1074–1085. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.03.010
De Melo-Abreu JP, Barranco D, Cordeiro AM, Tous J, Rogado BM, Villalobos FJ (2004) Modelling olive flowering date using chilling for dormancy release and thermal time. Agric For Meteorol 125:117–127. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.02.009
Deser C, Phillips A, Bourdette V, Teng HY (2012) Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability. Clim Dynam 38:527–546. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x
Elloumi O, Ghrab M, Kessentini H, Ben Mimoun M (2013) Chilling accumulation effects on performance of pistachio trees cv. Mateur in dry and warm area climate. Sci Hortic 159:80–87. doi:10.1016/j.scienta.2013.05.004
Erez A, Fishman S, Linsleynoakes GC (1990) The dynamic-model for rest completion in peach buds. Acta Hortic 276:165–174
Fishman S, Erez A, Couvillon GA (1987a) The temperature-dependence of dormancy breaking in plants - computer-simulation of processes studied under controlled temperatures. J Theor Biol 126:309–321. doi:10.1016/S0022-5193(87)80237-0
Fishman S, Erez A, Couvillon GA (1987b) The temperature-dependence of dormancy breaking in plants - mathematical-analysis of a 2-step model involving a cooperative transition. J Theor Biol 124:473–483. doi:10.1016/S0022-5193(87)80221-7
Fraga H et al (2015a) Modeling phenology, water status, and yield components of three Portuguese grapevines using the STICS crop model. Am J Enol Viticult 66:482–491. doi:10.5344/ajev.2015.15031
Fraga H et al. (2015b) Statistical modelling of grapevine phenology in Portuguese wine regions: observed trends and climate change projections. J Agric Sci FirstView:1–17. doi: 10.1017/S0021859615000933
Fraga H, Santos JA, Malheiro AC, Oliveira AA, Moutinho-Pereira J, Jones GV (2016) Climatic suitability of Portuguese grapevine varieties and climate change adaptation. Int J Climatol 36:1–12. doi:10.1002/joc.4325
Garcia F, Frutos D, Lopez G, Carrillo A, Cos J (2014) Flowering of sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.) cultivars in Cieza, Murcia, Spain. In: Ayala M, Zoffoli JP, Lang GA (eds) Vi International Cherry Symposium, vol 1020. Acta Horticulturae. Int Soc Horticultural Science, Leuven 1, pp 191-196
Ghrab M, Ben Mimoun M, Masmoudi MM, Ben Mechlia N (2014) Chilling trends in a warm production area and their impact on flowering and fruiting of peach trees. Sci Hortic 178:87–94. doi:10.1016/j.scienta.2014.08.008
Guo L, Dai JH, Ranjitkar S, Xu JC, Luedeling E (2013) Response of chestnut phenology in China to climate variation and change. Agric For Meteorol 180:164–172. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.06.004
Guo L, Dai JH, Ranjitkar S, Yu HY, Xu JC, Luedeling E (2014) Chilling and heat requirements for flowering in temperate fruit trees. Int J Biometeorol 58:1195–1206. doi:10.1007/s00484-013-0714-3
Guo L, Dai JH, Wang MC, Xu JC, Luedeling E (2015a) Responses of spring phenology in temperate zone trees to climate warming: a case study of apricot flowering in China. Agric For Meteorol 201:1–7. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.10.016
Guo L, Xu J, Dai J, Cheng J, Luedeling E (2015b) Statistical identification of chilling and heat requirements for apricot flower buds in Beijing. Chin Scientia Horticult 195:138–144. doi:10.1016/j.scienta.2015.09.006
Haylock MR, Hofstra N, Klein Tank AMG, Klok EJ, Jones PD, New M (2008) A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950–2006. J Geophys Res 113:D20119. doi:10.1029/2008jd010201
Hochmaier V (2014) Chilling unit accumulation and degree-day requirements of four sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.) cultivars. In: Ayala M, Zoffoli JP, Lang GA (eds) Vi International Cherry Symposium, vol 1020. Acta Horticulturae. Int Soc Horticultural Science, Leuven 1, pp 203–207
Hussain S, Liu GQ, Liu DF, Ahmed M, Hussain N, Teng YW (2015) Study on the expression of dehydrin genes and activities of antioxidative enzymes in floral buds of two sand pear (Pyrus pyrifolia Nakai) cultivars requiring different chilling hours for bud break. Turk J Agric For 39:930–939. doi:10.3906/tar-1407-164
Ikinci A, Mamay M, Unlu L, Bolat I, Ercisli S (2014) Determination of heat requirements and effective heat summations of some pomegranate cultivars grown in Southern Anatolia. Erwerbs-Obstbau 56:131–138. doi:10.1007/s10341-014-0220-8
IPCC (2013) In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. contribution of working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, 1535 pp
IPCC (2014) In: Barros VR, Field CB, Dokken DJ, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Bilir TE, Chatterjee M, Ebi KL, Estrada YO, Genova RC, Girma B, Kissel ES, Levy AN, MacCracken S, Mastrandrea PR, White LL (eds) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. part b: regional aspects. contribution of working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York
Jacob D et al (2014) EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Reg Environ Chang 14:563–578. doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2
Kotlarski S et al (2014) Regional climate modeling on European scales: a joint standard evaluation of the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble. Geosci Model Dev 7:1297–1333. doi:10.5194/gmd-7-1297-2014
Kretzschmar AA, Brighenti LM, Rufato L, Pelizza TR, Silveira FN, Miquelutti DJ, Faoro ID (2011) Chilling requirement for dormancy bud break in European pear. In: Sanchez EE, Sugar D, Webster AD (eds) Xi International Pear Symposium, vol 909. Acta Horticulturae. Int Soc Horticultural Science, Leuven 1, pp 85–88
Lee H, Sumner DA (2016) Modeling the effects of local climate change on crop acreage. Calif Agric 70:9–14. doi:10.3733/ca.v070n01p9
Legave JM, Baculat B, Brisson N (2010) Assessment of chilling requirements of apricot floral buds: comparison of three contrasting chilling models under Mediterranean conditions. In: Herter FG, Leite GB, Raseira M (eds) Viii international symposium on temperate zone fruits in the tropics and subtropics, vol 872. Acta Horticulturae. Int Soc Horticultural Science, Leuven 1
Legave JM, Guedon Y, Malagi G, El Yaacoubi A, Bonhomme M (2015) Differentiated responses of apple tree floral phenology to global warming in contrasting climatic regions front. Plant Sci 6:13. doi:10.3389/fpls.2015.01054
Luedeling E (2012) Climate change impacts on winter chill for temperate fruit and nut production: a review. Sci Hortic 144:218–229. doi:10.1016/j.scienta.2012.07.011
Luedeling E, Brown PH (2011) A global analysis of the comparability of winter chill models for fruit and nut trees. Int J Biometeorol 55:411–421. doi:10.1007/s00484-010-0352-y
Luedeling E, Gebauer J, Buerkert A (2009a) Climate change effects on winter chill for tree crops with chilling requirements on the Arabian Peninsula. Clim Change 96:219–237. doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9581-7
Luedeling E, Zhang MH, Luedeling V, Girvetz EH (2009b) Sensitivity of winter chill models for fruit and nut trees to climatic changes expected in California’s Central Valley. Agr Ecosyst Environ 133:23–31. doi:10.1016/j.agee.2009.04.016
Luedeling E, Zhang MH, McGranahan G, Leslie C (2009c) Validation of winter chill models using historic records of walnut phenology. Agric For Meteorol 149:1854–1864. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2009.06.013
Luedeling E, Zhang MH, Girvetz EH (2009b) Climatic changes lead to declining winter chill for fruit and nut trees in california during 1950-2099. PloS one 4. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0006166
Luedeling E, Steinmann KP, Zhang MH, Brown PH, Grant J, Girvetz EH (2011a) Climate change effects on walnut pests in California. Global Change Biol 17:228–238. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02227.x
Luedeling E, Girvetz EH, Semenov MA, Brown PH (2011a) Climate change affects winter chill for temperate fruit and nut trees. PloS one 6. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0020155
Luedeling E, Kunz A, Blanke MM (2013a) Identification of chilling and heat requirements of cherry trees-a statistical approach. Int J Biometeorol 57:679–689. doi:10.1007/s00484-012-0594-y
Luedeling E, Guo L, Dai JH, Leslie C, Blanke MM (2013b) Differential responses of trees to temperature variation during the chilling and forcing phases. Agric For Meteorol 181:33–42. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.06.018
Matzneller P, Blumel K, Chmielewski FM (2014) Models for the beginning of sour cherry blossom. Int J Biometeorol 58:703–715. doi:10.1007/s00484-013-0651-1
Maulión E et al (2014) Comparison of methods for estimation of chilling and heat requirements of nectarine and peach genotypes for flowering. Sci Hortic 177:112–117. doi:10.1016/j.scienta.2014.07.042
Monteiro-Henriques T et al (2016) Bioclimatological mapping tackling uncertainty propagation: application to mainland. Portugal Int J Climatol 36:400–411. doi:10.1002/joc.4357
Morais H, Carbonieri J (2015) Chilling hours and units in apple orchards with distinct microclimate. Rev Bras Frutic 37:1–12. doi:10.1590/0100-2945-005/14
Moriondo M, Ferrise R, Trombi G, Brilli L, Dibari C, Bindi M (2015) Modelling olive trees and grapevines in a changing climate. Environ Model Softw 72:387–401. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.12.016
Perez FJ, Ormeno J, Reynaert B, Rubio S (2008) Use of the dynamic model for the assessment of winter chilling in a temperate and a subtropical climatic zone of Chile. Chil J Agr Res 68:198–206
Ramirez L, Sagredo KX, Reginato GH (2010) Prediction models for chilling and heat requirements to estimate full bloom of almond cultivars in the Central Valley of Chile. In: Herter FG, Leite GB, Raseira M (eds) Viii international symposium on temperate zone fruits in the tropics and subtropics, vol 872. Acta Horticulturae. Int Soc Horticultural Science, Leuven
Rayne S, Forest K (2016) Rapidly changing climatic conditions for wine grape growing in the Okanagan Valley region of British Columbia. Canada Sci Total Environ 556:169–178. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.02.200
Ruiz D, Campoy JA, Egea J (2007) Chilling and heat requirements of apricot cultivars for flowering. Environ Exp Bot 61:254–263. doi:10.1016/j.envexpbot.2007.06.008
San-Miguel-Ayanz J et al (2016) European Atlas of forest tree species. publication office of the European Union. European Commission, Luxembourg. doi:10.2788/038466
Santesteban LG, Miranda C, Royo JB (2012) Average dates and accumulated thermal requirements for different phenophases of peach as influenced by climate. In: Girona J, Marsal J (eds) Vii international peach symposium, vol 962. Acta Horticulturae. Int Soc Horticultural Science, Leuven 1, pp 277–284
Schwartz MD, Hanes JM (2010) Continental-scale phenology: warming and chilling. Int J Climatol 30:1595–1598. doi:10.1002/joc.2014
Severino V, Arbiza H, Arias M, Manzi M, Gravina A (2011) Modelos de cuantificación de frío efectivo invernal adaptados a la producción de manzana en Uruguay. Agrociencia Uruguay 15:19–28
Spinoni J, Vogt J, Barbosa P (2015) European degree-day climatologies and trends for the period 1951-2011. Inte J Climatol 35:25-36. doi: 10.1002/joc.3959
Whiting MD, Salazar MR, Hoogenboom G (2015) Development of bloom phenology models for tree fruits. In: Bourgeois G (ed) Ix international symposium on modelling in fruit research and orchard management, vol 1068. Acta Horticulturae. Int Soc Horticultural Science, Leuven 1, pp 107–112
Zhang JL, Taylor C (2011) The dynamic model provides the best description of the chill process on ‘Sirora’ Pistachio trees in Australia. Hortscience 46:420–425
Zhuang W, Cai B, Gao Z, Zhang Z (2016) Determination of chilling and heat requirements of 69 Japanese apricot cultivars. Eur J Agron 74:68–74. doi:10.1016/j.eja.2015.10.006
Acknowledgments
This work is supported by European Investment Funds by FEDER/COMPETE/POCI– Operational Competitiveness and Internationalization Programme, under Project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006958 and National Funds by FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UID/AGR/04033/2013. We are also grateful to the “Direção-Geral do Território” for supplying the COS2007.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
ESM 1
(PDF 1319 kb)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Santos, J.A., Costa, R. & Fraga, H. Climate change impacts on thermal growing conditions of main fruit species in Portugal. Climatic Change 140, 273–286 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1835-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1835-6