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Sensitivity analysis of moment magnitude (Mw) spectral fitting parameters based on orthogonal design: using aftershocks of the 2019 Mw 6.5 Ambon, Indonesia earthquake

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Abstract

Spectral analysis method is commonly used in estimating moment magnitude for small to medium size earthquake. Most moment magnitude studies have been focused on the consistency of the average values with other methods. However, little attention is put into the study of moment magnitude sensitivity to its input parameter. In this study we attempted to analyse the sensitivity of moment magnitude to spectral fitting parameters for P and S-waves (Mw,PS) and P-waves (Mw,P) by using Taguchi Orthogonal Array (OA) design. Utilizing the 2019 Ambon aftershocks catalogue, we analysed the impact of uncertainty in the radiation pattern, time window length, hypocenter location, 1D velocity, and 1D density model on the magnitude. We considered 10% uncertainty for all the parameters; except for hypocenter location parameter where we considered ± 4 km deviation. We observed that the 1D velocity model had the greatest percentage contribution on magnitudes variation (Mw,PS and Mw,P), up to 65%. Compared to the hypocenter location parameter, the magnitudes are less sensitive to changes in the 1D density model and radiation pattern as these two parameters gave contribution to magnitude variation consistently at ≈ 7%. Through spatial analysis of earthquake clusters, we observed that event’s depth coupled with station location have significant effect to magnitude changes. Care has to be taken when events are located in the 1D velocity boundary or near station, as these factors could increase the magnitude variation.

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Data availability

The Ambon aftershock catalogue data underlying this article are available in the Mendeley data, v1 repository, at http://dx.doi.org/10.17632/z5nmbmmddt.1 (Sahara et al. 2021a). While the waveform data underlying this article is available upon request to the authors.

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Acknowledgements

We are grateful to the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG) for access to their 2019 Ambon aftershocks data which were used in this study. The seismographic station deployment was funded by BNPB. The figures were prepared using PyGMT, Python wrapper for the Generic Mapping Tools (GMT) (Uieda and Wessel 2017) and Matplotlib (Hunter 2017).

Funding

This research was funded by Institut Teknologi Bandung KK-A 2022 research fund: “Sulawesi in-situ regional stress map preparation from new focal mechanism dataset as an effort to mitigate geological disasters in Eastern Indonesia” with grant number 829/IT1.C05/KU.02/2022; and by the Program Penelitian Kolaborasi Indonesia (PPKI) Non-APBN Institut Teknologi Bandung with grant number 210/IT1.B07.1/SPP-LPPM/V/2022.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Global Geophysics Research Group, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia

    Dian Kusumawati, David P. Sahara, Andri D. Nugraha, Nanang T. Puspito, Sri Widiyantoro, Zulfakriza Zulfakriza & Shindy Rosalia

  2. Geophysical Engineering Study Program, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia

    Dian Kusumawati, Ardianto Ardianto & Aria Widhi Baskara

  3. Department of Civil Engineering, Maranatha Christian University, Bandung, Indonesia

    Sri Widiyantoro

  4. Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway

    Hasbi Ash Shiddiqi

  5. Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics of Indonesia (BMKG), Ambon, Indonesia

    Andi Azhar Rusdin

  6. Department of Informatics, Diponegoro University, Semarang, Indonesia

    Adi Wibowo

  7. Department of Geodetic Engineering, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia

    Leni S. Heliani

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  1. Dian Kusumawati
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Contributions

Conceptualization and analysis were performed by DPS and DK. Method and software were provided by AA and AWB. Data collection and resources were provided by ZZ, SR, and AAR. The first draft of the manuscript was written by DK. Supervision was performed by ADN, NTP, SW, HAS, AW, and LSH. All authors approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to David P. Sahara.

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Appendix

Appendix

See Tables 7, 8, 9, 10 and Figs. 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13.

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Kusumawati, D., Sahara, D.P., Nugraha, A.D. et al. Sensitivity analysis of moment magnitude (Mw) spectral fitting parameters based on orthogonal design: using aftershocks of the 2019 Mw 6.5 Ambon, Indonesia earthquake. Bull Earthquake Eng 21, 1793–1819 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-022-01606-6

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