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Variation of debris flow/flood formation conditions at the watershed scale in the Wenchuan Earthquake area

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Abstract

A channelized debris flow/flood generally originates from initial gully erosion by superficial runoff that evolves rapidly into massive erosion of the channel bed. Knowledge of the formation conditions of such events is crucial for accurate forecasting, and determination of rainfall and runoff thresholds for such hazards is a primary concern following a strong earthquake. This work proposed a framework for debris flow/flood formation at the watershed scale in two watersheds (area: 2.4 and 32.4 km2) in the Wenchuan Earthquake area (China). The critical runoff and rainfall conditions required for debris flow/flood formation were simulated and their annual variations investigated. Ultimately, the runoff conditions required for debris flow/flood formation in the two studied watersheds were calculated on an annual basis and found to increase in time. Similarly, following consideration of three different rainfall types, critical rainfall conditions were proposed that also showed an increasing tendency. The increase of rainfall and runoff conditions for debris flow/flood formation is attributable to both the recovery of vegetation and the reduction of source materials. In comparison with actual monitored flow behaviors and previously proposed rainfall thresholds, the results showed strong consistency and high forecasting efficiency.

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Acknowledgements

This study was supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of CAS (XDA20030301 and XDA23090202), National Research and Development Program (2017YFC1502504), NSFC (41977257), and Western Light of Young Scholars, CAS. We thank James Buxton MSc from Liwen Bianji, Edanz Group China (www.liwenbianji.cn/ac), for editing the English text of this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process/Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, 610041, China

    Xiaojun Guo & Yong Li

  2. CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Xiaojun Guo

  3. School of Environment and Resource, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang, 621020, China

    Xingchang Chen, Ju Zhang & Yuqing Sun

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  1. Xiaojun Guo
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Correspondence to Xiaojun Guo.

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Guo, X., Li, Y., Chen, X. et al. Variation of debris flow/flood formation conditions at the watershed scale in the Wenchuan Earthquake area. Landslides 18, 2427–2443 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-021-01644-2

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