Abstract
The awarding of the 2008 Nobel Peace Prize to former President Martti Ahtisaari, Finland, cites his involvement in the settlement of the Aceh conflict. This at the same time highlights the lack of such efforts in the regions of Southeast Asia and the South Pacific. While internal conflicts throughout the world often tend to be resilient to conflict management initiatives, conflicts in the Asia-Pacific region have proven to be particularly difficult to resolve. Internal conflicts in Southeast Asia and the Pacific often concern territorial issue, for instance, East Timor and ethnically based conflicts in Myanmar. This is also true for conflicts in the South Pacific, notably in Bougainville (Papua New Guinea) and New Caledonia (France). Territorial conflicts last longer, are more difficult to manage, and generally produce more adverse consequences than those over other issues such as ideology, government, and national power. Further, conflicts in this region appear to be of low priority for third parties, with comparatively few interventions from third parties. The strong central governments seem to be a factor in preventing mediation-based solution to such conflicts. Nevertheless, there are reasons to be optimistic. Third party mediation, democratization, and the recent success in Aceh provide promise for the future, and the recent Nobel Prize confirms this.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
We define armed conflict as “… a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year” (http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/data_and_publications/definitions_all.htm).
More detailed information on the third party actors and their activities is included in the “Appendix”.
References
Ahtisaari M (2008) Lessons of Aceh peace talks. Asia Europe Journal 6(1):9–14
Amer R (1999) Conflict management and constructive engagement in ASEAN's expansion. Third World Q 20(5):1031–1048
BBC News (2005) Aceh rebels sign peace agreement. Available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4151980.stm
Bercovitch J (2005) Mediation in the most resistant cases. In: Crocker C, Hampson F, Aall P (eds) Grasping the nettle: analyzing cases of intractable conflict. United States Institute of Peace, Washington, DC, pp 99–122
Brown A (2007) Security and development: conflict and resilience in the Pacific islands region. In: Brown A (ed) Security and development in the Pacific Islands: social resilience in emerging states. Lynne Rienner, Boulder, pp 1–31
Carment D (2003) Secessionist ethnic conflict in South and Southeast Asia. In: Ganguly R, MacDuff I (eds) Ethnic conflict and seccessionism in South and Southeast Asia. Sage, New Delhi, pp 23–58
De Deckker P (2007) Development and self-determination in New Caledonia. In: Brown A (ed) Security and development in the Pacific Islands: social resilience in emerging states. Lynne Rienner, Boulder, pp 111–125
DeRouen K, Jenna L, Wallensteen P (2009) The duration of civil war peace agreements. Confl Manage Peace Sci (in press)
Fearon J (2004) Why do some civil wars last so much longer than others? J Peace Res 41(3):275–301
Fearon J (2005) Civil war since 1945: some facts and a theory. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American political science association, Washington, DC
Fearon J, Laitin D (1999) Weak states, rough terrain, and large-scale ethnic violence since 1945. Department of Political Science, Stanford University. Retrieved: 03/05/2006, from http://www.stanford.edu/group/ethnic/workingpapers/insurg1.pdf
Fearon JD, Laitin DD (2003) Ethnicity, insurgency, and civil war. Am Polit Sci Rev 97:75–90
Feith P (2007) The Aceh peace process: nothing less than success. USIP special report no. 184
Ganguly R (2003) Introduction: the challenge of ethnic insurgency and secession in south and Southeast Asia. In: Ganguly R, Macduff I (eds) Ethnic conflict and secessionism in South and Southeast Asia: causes, dynamics, solutions. Sage, London, pp 9–22
Ghoshal B (2004) Democratic transition and political development in Post-Suharto Indonesia. Contemp Southeast Asia 26(3):506–529
Greig M (2005) Stepping into the fray: when do mediators mediate? Am J Polit Sci 49(2):249–266
Gurr TR (1970) Why men rebel. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey
Hampson FO (1996) Nurturing peace: why peace settlements succeed or fail. US Institute for Peace, Washington, DC
Harbom L, Högbladh S, Wallensteen P (2006) Armed conflict and peace agreements. J Peace Res 43(5):617–631
Hartzell C, Hoddie M (2003) Institutionalizing peace: power sharing and post-civil war conflict management. Am J Polit Sci 47(2):318–332
Hartzell C, Hoddie M, Rothchild D (2001) Stabilizing the peace after civil war: an investigation of some key variables. Int Org 55(1):183–208
Hegre H (2003) Disentangling democracy and development as determinants of armed conflict. Paper presented at the 44th annual convention of the international studies association, February 26–March 1, Portland, OR. http://folk.uio.no/hahegre/Papers/DisentanglingWB.pdf
Hegre H, Ellingsen T, Gates S, Gleditsch NP (2001) Toward a democratic civil peace? Democracy political change, and civil war, 1816–1992. Am Polit Sci Rev 95(1):33–48
Hoddie M, Hartzell C (2003) Civil war settlements and the implementation of military power-sharing arrangements. J Peace Res 40:303–320
Hoddie M, Hartzell C (2005) Signals of reconciliation: institution-building and the resolution of civil wars. Int Stud Rev 7:21–40
Horstmann A (2008) Approaching peace in Patani, Southern Thailand—some anthropological considerations. Asia Europe Journal 6(1):57–67
Huber K (2004) The HDC in Aceh: promises and pitfalls of NGO mediation and implementation. East-West Center Washington, Policy Study No. 9. Washington, D.C. http://www.eastwestcenterwashington.org/publications/psseriespdf9.htm
Kaufman C (1996) Intervention in ethnic and ideological civil wars: why one can be done and the other can’t. Secur Stud 6(1):62–103
Kinsella D (2005) No rest for the democratic peace. Am Polit Sci Rev 99:453–457
Kivimäki T (2008) Prospects of peace negotiation in Papua. Asia Europe Journal 6(1):69–79
Kivimäki T, Gorman D (2008) Non-governmental actors in peace processes: the case of Aceh. In: Mellbourn A, Wallensteen P (eds) Third parties and conflict prevention. Gidlunds Förlag, Hedemora, pp 163–185
Licklider R (1995) The consequences of negotiated settlements in civil wars, 1945–1993. Am Polit Sci Rev 89(3):681–690
MacLellan N (2007) Development and self-determination in New Caledonia. In: Brown A (ed) Security and development in the Pacific Islands. Social resilience in emerging states. Lynne Rienner, Boulder, pp 127–137
Marshall M, Jaggers K (2006) Polity IV project: political regime characteristics and transitions, 1800–2006, Retrieved: 28/04/2008, from www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm
Möller F, DeRouen K, Bercovitch J, Wallensteen P (2007) The limits of peace: third parties in civil wars in Southeast Asia, 1993–2004. Negot J 23(4):373–391
Moore C (2007) External intervention: the Solomon Islands beyond RAMSI. In: Brown A (ed) Security and development in the Pacific Islands: social resilience in emerging states. Lynne Rienner, Boulder, pp 169–196
Narine S (1998) ASEAN and the management of regional security. Pac Aff 71(2):195–214
Regan A (2007) Development and conflict. The struggle over self-determination in Bougainville. In: Brown A (ed) Security and development in the Pacific Islands: social resilience in emerging states. Lynne Rienner, Boulder, pp 89–110
Reynal-Querol M (2002) Ethnicity, political systems and civil war. J Confl Resolut 46(1):29–54
Russett B (1993) Grasping the democratic peace. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ
Sherman J (2003) Burma. In: Ballentine K, Sherman J (eds) The political economy of armed conflict. Lynne Rienner, Boulder, CO, pp 225–255
Stedman S, Rothchild D (1996) Peace operations: from short-term to long-term commitment. Int Peacekeep 3(2):17–35
The Economist (2008) Explosive mines, Feb. 7, 2008
Uppsala Conflict Data Program (2008) Uppsala conflict database. Retrieved: 24/04/2008, from http://www.pcr.uu.se/database/conflictSummary.php?bcID=181
Vatikiotis M (1993) Indonesian politics under Suharto. Routledge, London
Vatikiotis M (2006) Resolving internal conflicts in Southeast Asia: domestic challenges and regional perspectives. Contemp Southeast Asia 28(1):27–47
Wallensteen P (2007) Understanding conflict resolution: war, peace and the global system, 2nd edn. Sage, London
Wallensteen P (2009) The strengths and limits of academic diplomacy: the case of Bougainville. In: Diplomacy in theory and practice (in press)
Weber M (1947) The theory of social and economic organization. The Free Press of Glencoe, Collier-Macmillan Ltd, London
Wiryono S (2008) Indonesia and Southeast Asian territorial peace processes. Asia Europe Journal 6(1):15–30
Zanger S (2000) A global analysis of the effect of political regime changes on life integrity violations, 1977–1993. J Peace Res 37(2):213–233
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Funding for this research was provided by a Marsden Grant from the Royal Society of New Zealand, by the Folke Bernadotte Academy of Sweden, and by the Swedish Research Council.
Appendix
Appendix
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Wallensteen, P., DeRouen, K., Bercovitch, J. et al. Democracy and mediation in territorial civil wars in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific. Asia Eur J 7, 241–264 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10308-009-0229-z
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10308-009-0229-z