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Looking beyond the average agricultural impacts in defining adaptation needs in Europe

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Abstract

The effects of climate change on agriculture are often characterised by changes in the average productivity of crops; however, these indicators provide limited information regarding the risks associated with fluctuations in productivity resulting from future changes in climate variability that may also affect agriculture. In this context, this study evaluates the combined effects of the risks associated with anomalies reflected by changes in the mean crop yield and the variability of productivity in European agro-climatic regions under future climate change scenarios. The objective of this study is to evaluate adaptation needs and to identify regional effects that should be addressed with greater urgency in the light of the risks and opportunities that are identified. The results show differential effects on regional agriculture and highlight the importance of considering both regional average impacts and the variability in crop productivity in setting priorities for the adaptation and maintenance of rural incomes and agricultural insurance programmes.

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Acknowledgments

We acknowledge the EU projects CIRCE and ClimateCost project for providing climate change scenario data and funding for the research. This research has been supported by MAEC-AECID (Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation-Spanish Agency for International Cooperation) through its scholarships for foreigners to doctoral studies and CYTED Action VIAGUA (410AC0399). This study has used information from European project PRUDENCE financed by European Union contract EVK2-CT2001-00132.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Hydraulic and Energy Engineering, Technical University of Madrid, 28040, Madrid, Spain

    D. González-Zeas & L. Garrote

  2. Department of Economics, University of Alcala, Madrid, Spain

    S. Quiroga

  3. Department of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences, Technical University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain

    A. Iglesias

Authors
  1. D. González-Zeas
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  2. S. Quiroga
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  3. A. Iglesias
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  4. L. Garrote
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to L. Garrote.

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González-Zeas, D., Quiroga, S., Iglesias, A. et al. Looking beyond the average agricultural impacts in defining adaptation needs in Europe. Reg Environ Change 14, 1983–1993 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-012-0388-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-012-0388-0

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