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A regional comparison of the effects of climate change on agricultural crops in Europe

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Abstract

The effects of climate change will be felt by most farmers in Europe over the next decades. This study provides consistent results of the impact of climate change on arable agriculture in Europe by using high resolution climate data, socio-economic data, and impact assessment models, including farmer adaptation. All scenarios are consistent with the spatial distribution of effects, exacerbating regional disparities and current vulnerability to climate. Since the results assume no restrictions on the use of water for irrigation or on the application of agrochemicals, they may be considered optimistic from the production point of view and somewhat pessimistic from the environmental point of view. The results provide an estimate of the regional economic impact of climate change, as well as insights into the importance of mitigation and adaptation policies.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge funding provided by the Peseta project of the EC-JRC and ARCO project of the Ministry of the Environment, Rural and Marine Affairs of Spain, and the comments of three anonymous reviewers.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Avenida de la Complutense, sn, 28040, Madrid, Spain

    Ana Iglesias

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain

    Luis Garrote

  3. Department of Statistics, Economic Structure and International Organization, Universidad de Alcala, Madrid, Spain

    Sonia Quiroga

  4. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

    Marta Moneo

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  1. Ana Iglesias
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Correspondence to Ana Iglesias.

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Iglesias, A., Garrote, L., Quiroga, S. et al. A regional comparison of the effects of climate change on agricultural crops in Europe. Climatic Change 112, 29–46 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0338-8

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