Abstract
In the Maghreb and North African regions, the interannual climate variability causes severe impacts on agriculture through long drought episodes. Impacts are expected to increase due to projected climate change. Decreasing water availability will have a direct impact on the agriculture sector and could endanger the socioeconomic development and social stability in Tunisia where rain-fed agriculture represents the main occupancy and means of subsistence for the large rural population.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abou-Hadid AF (2006) Assessment of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability to climate change in North Africa: food production and water resources. Project no. AF 90. The International START Secretariat, Washington
Abou-Hadid A, Mougou R, Mokssit A, Iglesias A (2003) Assessment, impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability to climate change on North Africa: food and water resources. Tunisian part of AIACC AF90 semi annual progress report. AIACC regional studies. Assessments of impacts and adaptations to climate change (AIACC) in multiple regions and sectors
Allen RG, Pereira LS, Raes D, Smith M (1998) Crop evapotranspiration guidelines for computing crop water requirements. FAO irrigation and drainage paper, vol 56. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome
Benzarti Z (1996) La maîtrise des eaux de surface: l’expérience des lacs collinaires en Tunisie. La Revue des Géographes Tunisiens 4:15
Déqué M (2007) Frequency of precipitation and temperature extremes over France in an anthropogenic scenario: model results and statistical correction according to observed values. Glob Planet Change 57(1–2):16–26
Henia L (1993) Climat et bilan de l’eau en Tunisie. Essai de régionalisation climatique par les bilans hydriques. Publications de l’Université de Tunis I Deuxième série Geographie XXVI
Hulme M, Wigley TML, Barrow EM, Raper SCB, Centella A, Smith SJ, Chipanshi AC (2000) Using a climate scenario generator for vulnerability and adaptation assessments: MAGICC and SCENGEN, vol 2.4. Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich
IPCC, 1996: Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, J.T. Houghton, L.G. Meiro Filho, B.A. Callander, N. Harris, A. Kattenberg, K. Maskell, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, J.T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, C.A. Johnson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Labben Y, Hsoumi N, Kerkeni H, Fray B (1996) Evolution de la température en Tunisie. Variabilité du climat et stratégies d’adaptation humaines en Tunisie. Publications de l’Université de Tunis I Série colloque 7ème VI:125–136
Lebdi F (2002) Irrigation advisory services in Tunisia. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations/Ministère de l’Agriculture, Hammamet
Leggett J, Pepper WJ, Swart RJ (1992) Emissions scenarios for IPCC: an update. In: Houghton JT, Callander BA, Varney SK (eds) Climate change 1992: the supplementary report to the IPCC scientific assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 71–95
Lhomme J, Mougou R, Mansour M (2009) Potential impact of climate change on durum wheat cropping in Tunisia. Clim Change 96:549–564
Louati MH, Khanfir R, Alouini A, El Echi ML, Frigui L, Marzouk A (1999) Guide pratique de la gestion de la sécheresse en Tunisie. Approche méthodologique. Ministère de l’Agriculture, Tunis
Ministère de l’Environnement et de l’Aménagement du Territoire Tunisie (2002) Vulnerability of the Maghreb Region to Climate Change, and Needs for Adaptation. UNDP/GEF & Ministère de l’Environnement et de l’Aménagement du Territoire Tunisie, Tunis
Mougou R, Henia L (1996) La sécheresse agroclimatique en Tunisie. Cas de la culture du blé. La Revue des Géographes Tunisiens 4:1–17
Mougou R, Henia L (1998) Contribution à l’étude des phénomènes à risques en Tunisie. Cas du sirocco. Les Publications de l’Association Internationale de Climatologie 9
Nasr Z, Zairi A, Ben Nouna B, Ouslati T (2001) Détermination de la consommation en eau journalière par bilan d’énergie des cultures annuelles (blé et pomme de terre). Evolution avec la biomasse et application au pilotage des irrigations. Les Annales de l’INRGREF special edition:114–125
Raper SCB, Wigley TML, Warrick RA (1996) Global sea level rise: past and future. In: Milliman J, Haq BU (eds) Sea-level rise and coastal subsidence: causes consequences and strategies. Kluwer, Dordrecht, pp 11–45
Regional Coordination of the UNDP/GEF RAB/94G31 Project (2002) Vulnerability of the maghreb region to climate change, and needs for adaptation (Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia). Ministère de l’Aménagement du territoire, de l’Urbanisme, de l’Habitat et de l’Environnement, Rabat, Morocco
Sakkis N, Ennabli N, Slimani MS, Baccour H (1994) La pluviométrie en Tunisie a-t-elle changé depuis 2000 ans? Recherche de tendance et de cycles dans les séries pluviométriques. Institut national de la météorologie, Tunis
Santer BD, Wigley TML, Schlesinger ME, Mitchell JFB (1996) Developing climate scenarios from equilibrium GCM results. MPI Report 47. Hamburg
UNFCCC (1992) The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Wigley TML, Raper SCB (1992) Implications for climate and sea-level of revised IPCC emissions scenarios. Nature 357(6376):293–300
Acknowledgments
We would like to thank Raoudha Mougou for leading the work, which delivered this paper. We regret that the paper is only published after her sudden death.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Mougou, R., Mansour, M., Iglesias, A. et al. Climate change and agricultural vulnerability: a case study of rain-fed wheat in Kairouan, Central Tunisia. Reg Environ Change 11 (Suppl 1), 137–142 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0179-4
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0179-4