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Impacts of climate change on spatial drought distribution in the Mediterranean Basin (Turkey): different climate models and downscaling methods

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Abstract

The impacts of climate change increasingly show themselves in many forms in our everyday lives such as heatwaves and droughts. Drought is one of the critical events today for increasing drought frequency. This study focuses on meteorological drought because it directly affects other drought types. Hence, this study focuses on how the future drought conditions will vary under climate change effects in the Mediterranean basin (Turkey). In doing so, this study utilizes precipitation data from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three Regional Circulation Models (RCMs). The GCMs are CNRM-CM6, GFDL-CM4, and MPI-ESM1, while the RCMs are (RCA4)-CNRM-CM5, (Reg CM4)-GFDL-ESM2M, and (RCA4)-MPI-ESM-MR. Mitigating biases of the climate models, this study utilizes four statistical downscaling methods (SD), linear scaling (LS), local intensity scaling (LOCI), power transformation (PT), and distribution mapping (DM). Here, the study has two purposes. The main aim of the paper here is to compare the performance of SD methods in improving the representation of observed climate variables in climate models. In addition, the study shows how different methods will affect the spatial drought distribution in the area under the SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5 scenarios. Consequently, the study uses the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Z-score index (ZSI) to quantify future drought conditions and reaches the following results. The study reveals that mild drought conditions are prevalent in the basin for future periods, and drought indices go down to − 0.55. The study also shows that different SD methods affect the results obtained by each climate model diversely. For example, while the LS method causes the most drought conditions on the results based on CNRM-CM5 and CNRM-CM6, the DM method has a similar impact on outcomes based on GFDL-CM4 and GFDL-ESM2M and causes the most drought conditions.

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Data availability

The datasets generated throughout the study are available in the [Enes], [ECMWF], [WCRP], and [GFDL] webpages.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank Onur Cem Yoloğlu for his invaluable insight throughout the process and the open-source databases provided by Enes, ECMWF, and GFDL.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Environmental Sciences Institute, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, Turkey

    Z. Ibrahim Erkol

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, Dokuz Eylül University, Izmir, Turkey

    S. Nur Yesilyurt & H. Yildirim Dalkilic

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  1. Z. Ibrahim Erkol
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  2. S. Nur Yesilyurt
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  3. H. Yildirim Dalkilic
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study’s conception and design. Z. Ibrahim Erkol, S. Nur Yesilyurt, and H. Yildirim Dalkilic partook altogether in the processes of material preparation, data collection, analysis, and writing and contributed to the editing and review of the article. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Z. Ibrahim Erkol.

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Appendix

Appendix

Appendix Figs. 12, 13, and 14

Fig. 12
figure 12

Taylor diagrams showing the correlation between downscaled/raw outputs of climate models and re-analysis data (Antalya, Burdur, Mersin, and Isparta)

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Fig. 13
figure 13

Probabilistic distribution of precipitation data for Isparta, Mugla, and Mersin

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Fig. 14
figure 14

Probabilistic distribution of precipitation data for Burdur, Karaman, and Konya

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Erkol, Z.I., Yesilyurt, S.N. & Dalkilic, H.Y. Impacts of climate change on spatial drought distribution in the Mediterranean Basin (Turkey): different climate models and downscaling methods. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 4065–4087 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04867-0

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