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Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrological response of a watershed in the savanna region of sub-Saharan Africa

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Abstract

In this study, the applicability of ensemble mean from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment_Regional Climate Models (CORDEX_RCMs) for climate change impact assessment on Niger Central Hydrological Area (NCHA) was evaluated. Thereafter, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was successfully calibrated at the Kaduna sub-basin. The SWAT model was then forced with the CORDEX_RCMs at four specific global warming levels (GWLs) (i.e., 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, 2.5 °C, and 3.0 °C) and the baseline (1971–2000). The water balance components (WBCs) generated at GWLs were compared with the baseline. The results indicate that the CORDEX_RCMs effectively simulated climate variables. The past and future projections (1950–2100) show an increase in annual streamflow of 4.7%, 5.9%, 3.4%, and 3.5% at 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, 2.5 °C, and 3.0 °C, respectively, over the baseline. Similarly, with respect to baseline, changes are expected in average annual rainfall (+ 1.91%, + 2.64%, + 2.33%, and + 2.41%), runoff (+ 1.37%, + 3.81%, + 1.17%, and + 3.26%), potential evapotranspiration (+ 2.85%, + 4.09%, + 6.54%, and + 6.60%), and evapotranspiration (− 2.15%, − 2.62%, − 4.00%, and − 4.33%) under 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, 2.5 °C, and 3.0 °C, respectively. Monthly streamflow for the dry and early rainy seasons is projected to decrease, while the late rainy season is expected to increase with an increase in GWLs. The implication is that while there may be a lack of water in the early rainy season, the flood event presently being witnessed in the late rainy season may become aggravated. Hence, adaptation strategies that take care of water deficit in the early rainy season and excess in the late rainy season should be put into consideration.

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Acknowledgements

The first author hereby acknowledges the Orange Knowledge Program (OKP) and IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Netherlands, for the scholarship and training on SWAT Model.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Agricultural & Bioresources Engineering, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria

    Murtala Iyanda Animashaun

  2. Department of Agricultural & Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria

    Murtala Iyanda Animashaun, Philip Gbenro Oguntunde & Obafemi Olutola Olubanjo

  3. Department of Remote Sensing and Geoscience Information System, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria

    Akinola Shola Akinwumiju

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  1. Murtala Iyanda Animashaun
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AIM conceptualized, designed, and drafted the original manuscript of the research; OPG and AAS were involved in software and formal analysis; OOO and AAS were involved in data curation and review; and OPG and OOO were involved in interpretation, editing, and proofreading of the manuscript.

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Fig. 11

Fig. 11
figure 11

Historical mean monthly a precipitation, b minimum temperature, and c maximum temperature for Kaduna sub-basin

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Animashaun, M.I., Oguntunde, P.G., Olubanjo, O.O. et al. Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrological response of a watershed in the savanna region of sub-Saharan Africa. Theor Appl Climatol 152, 1–22 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04372-w

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