Abstract
The late-summer western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) has been known to exhibit a strong lagged connection with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) of preceding winter. We find that this lagged relationship has been substantially weakened in the recent decades and that, instead, the WNPSH-ENSO connection has become pronounced during early summer. The processes that lead to the changes in the connection are examined by comparing those of the past (1982–1995) and those of the recent (2006–2020) decades. In the earlier period, the sea surface temperature (SST) and the atmospheric responses associated with the WNPSH show a strong resemblance to the decaying ENSO for both early and late summer. Local air-sea interaction mainly regulates the early-summer WNPSH, whereas the Kelvin wave response to Indian Ocean warming largely contributes to the intensification of the late-summer WNPSH. The latter is more related to the delayed ENSO effect, and the strengthening of this remote effect may bring a high correlation between the late-summer WNPSH and ENSO. In contrast, during the recent period, the regional Hadley circulation, associated with the contrasting SST anomalies over the maritime continent (MC) and tropical Central Pacific (TCP), plays a role in maintaining the WNPSH. However, the ENSO-induced SST pattern accompanies the WNPSH only during early summer, while the SST anomalies over the MC and TCP in late summer are too weak to influence the variability of the WNPSH.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available in the following repositories: NOAA OLR (https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.interp_OLR.html), ERA5 (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/), and NOAA OI SST v2 (https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.oisst.v2.html).
Code availability
Codes are available from J.-E. E. Kim on reasonable request.
References
An S-I, Jin F-F (2010) Linear solutions for the frequency and amplitude modulation of ENSO by the annual period. Tellus 63A:238–243. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00482.x
Cai W, Coauthors (2021) Changing El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate. Nat Rev Earth Environ 2:628–644. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-021-00199-z
Chakravorty S, Chowdary JS, Gnanaseelan C (2014) Epochal changes in the seasonal evolution of tropical Indian Ocean warming associated with El Niño. Clim Dyn 42:805–822. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1666-3
Chen M, Yu J-Y, Wang X, Jiang W (2019) The changing impact mechanisms of a diverse El Niño on the Western Pacific subtropical high. Geophys Res Lett 46:953–962. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081131
Choi W, Kim K-Y (2019) Summertime variability of the western North Pacific subtropical high and its synoptic influences on the East Asian weather. Sci Rep 9:7865. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-44414-w
Chung P-H, Sui C-H, Li T (2011) Interannual relationships between the tropical sea surface temperature and summertime subtropical anticyclone over the western North Pacific. J Geophys Res 116:D13111. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015554
Dong X and He C (2020) Zonal displacement of the Western North Pacific subtropical high from early to late summer. Int J Clim 40(11):5029–5041. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6508
Fang C, Liu Y, Cai Q, Song H (2021) Why does extreme rainfall occur in central China during the summer of 2020 after a weak El Niño? Adv Atmos Sci 38:2067–2081. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1009-y
Gill AE (1980) Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Q J R Meteorol Soc 106:447–462. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710644905
Gu B, Zheng Z, Feng G, Wang X (2017) Interdecadal transition in the relationship between the Western Pacific subtropical high and sea surface temperature. Int J Climatol 37:2667–2678. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4872
He C, Zhou T (2015) Decadal change of the connection between summer western North Pacific subtropical high and tropical SST in the early 1990s. Atmosheric Sci Lett 16:253–259. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.550
He C, Zhou T, Wu B (2015) The key oceanic regions responsible for the interannual variability of the western North Pacific subtropical high and associated mechanisms. J Meteorol Res 29:562–575. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-015-5037-3
Hersbach H, Bell B, Berrisford P, Hirahara S (2020) The ERA5 global reanalysis. Q J R Meteorol Soc 146:1999–2049. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803
Horii T, Ueki I, Hanawa K (2012) Breakdown of ENSO predictors in the 2000s: decadal changes of recharge/discharge-SST phase relation and atmospheric intraseasonal forcing. Geophys Res Lett 39:L10707. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051740
Hu Z-Z, Kumar A, Huang B, Zhu J, L’Heureux M, McPhaden M, Yu J-Y (2020) The interdecadal shift of ENSO properties in 1999/2000: a review. J Clim 33:4441–4462
Huang R, Sun F (1992) Impacts of the tropical western Pacifc on the East Asian summer monsoon. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 70:243–256
Huang B, Liu C, Banzon V, Freeman E, Graham G, Hankins B, Smith T, Zhang H-M (2021) Improvements of the daily optimum interpolation sea surface temperature (DOISST) Version 2.1. J Clim 34:2923–2939. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0166.1
Jiang F, Jiang F, Zhang W, Stuecker MF, Jin F-F (2020) Decadal Change of Combination Mode Spatiotemporal Characteristics due to an ENSO Regime Shift. J Clim 33:5239–5251. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0822.1
Lee T, McPhaden MJ (2010) Increasing intensity of El Niño in the central-equatorial Pacific. Geophys Res Lett 37:L14603. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044007
Lee S-S, Seo Y-W, Ha K-J, Jhun J-G (2013) Impact of the western North Pacific subtropical high on the East Asian monsoon precipitation and the Indian Ocean precipitation in the boreal summertime. Asia-Pac J Atmos Sci 49:171–182. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-013-0018-x
Lee Y-K, Kim H-S, Kim J-EE, Choi Y-S, Yoo C (2022) Markov chain analysis of rainfall over East Asia: unusual frequency, persistence, and entropy in the summer 2020. Asia-Pac J Atmos Sci 58:281–291. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-021-00255-0
Li X, Lu R (2021) Decadal change in the influence of the western North Pacific subtropical high on summer rainfall over the Yangtze River basin in the late 1970s. Adv Atmos Sci 38:1823–1834. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1051-9
Li T, Wang B, Wu B, Zhou T (2017) Theories on formation of an anomalous anticyclone in western North Pacific during El Niño: a review. J Meteorol Res 31:987–1006. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-017-7147-6
Liebmann B, Smith CA (1996) Description of a complete (interpolated) outgoing longwave radiation dataset. Bull Am Meteor Soc 77:1275–1277
Lu R, Dong B (2001) Westward extension of North Pacific subtropical high in summer. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 79:1229–1241
Lu R, Li Y, Dong B-W (2006) External and internal summer atmospheric variability in the western North Pacific and East Asia. J Meteorol Soc Japan Series II 84:447–462
McPhaden MJ (2012) A 21st century shift in the relationship between ENSO SST and warm water volume anomalies. Geophys Res Lett 39:L09706. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051826
Nitta Ts (1987) Convective activities in the tropical Western Pacific and their impact on the northern hemisphere summer circulation. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 6:5373–5390
Okumura YM, Deser C (2010) Asymmetry in the duration of El Niño and La Niña. J Clim 23:5826–5843
Paek H, Yu J-Y, Zheng F, Lu M-M (2019) Impacts of ENSO diversity on the Western Pacific and North Pacific subtropical highs during boreal summer. Clim Dyn 52:7153–7172. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3288-z
Paek H, Yu JY, Qian C (2017) Why were the 2015/2016 and 1997/1998 extreme El Niños different? Geophys Res Lett, 44https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071515
Pan X, Li T, Sun Y, Zhu Z (2021) Cause of extreme heavy and persistent rainfall over Yangtze river in summer 2020. Adv Atmos Sci 38:1994–2009. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-0433-3
Park J-Y, Jhun J-G, Yim S-Y, Kim W (2010) Decadal changes in two types of the western North Pacific subtropical high in boreal summer associated with Asian summer monsoon/El Niño-Southern Oscillation connections. J Geophys Res 115:D21129
Piao J, Chen W, Chen S, Gong H, Chen X, Liu B (2020) The intensified impact of El Niño on late-summer precipitation over East Asia since the early 1990s. Clim Dyn 54:4793–4809. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05254-x
Reynolds RW, Smith TM, Liu C, Chelton DB, Casey KS, Schlax MG (2007) Daily high-resolution-blended analyses for sea surface temperature. J Clim 20:5473–5496. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1824.1
Stein K, Timmermann A, Schneider N, Jin F-F, Stuecker MF (2014) ENSO seasonal synchronization theory. J Clim 27:5285–5310. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00525.1
Sui C-H, Chung P-H, Li T (2007) Interannual and interdecadal variability of the summer time western North Pacific subtropical high. Geophys Res Lett 34:L11701. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL029204
Wang B, Zhang Q (2002) Pacific-East Asian teleconnection. Part II: how the Philippine Sea anomalous anticyclone is established during El Niño development. J Clim 15:3252–3265. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015%3c3252:PEATPI%3e2.0.CO;2
Wang B, Wu R, Fu X (2000) Pacific-East Asia teleconnection: how does ENSO affect East Asian climate? J Clim 13:1517–1536. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013%3c1517:PEATHD%3e2.0.CO;2
Wang B, Yang J, Zhou T, Wang B (2008) Interdecadal changes in the major modes of Asian-Australian monsoon variability: strengthening relationship with ENSO since the late 1970s. J Clim 21:1771–1789. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1981.1
Wang B, Xiang B, Lee J-Y (2013) Subtropical high predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 110:2718–2722. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1214626110
Wu B, Zhou T, Li T (2009) Seasonally evolving dominant interannual variability modes of East Asian climate. J Clim 22:2992–3005. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2710.1
Wu B, Li T, Zhou T-J (2010) Relative contributions of the Indian Ocean and local SST anomalies to the maintenance of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone during the El Niño decaying summer. J Clim 23:2974–2986
Xiang B, Wang B, Yu W, Xu S (2013) How can anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high intensify in late summer? Geophysical Research Letter 40:2349–2354. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50431
Xie S-P, Hu K, Hafner J, Tokinaga H, Du Y, Huang G, Sampe T (2009) Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo-Western Pacific climate during the summer following El Niño. J Clim 22:730–747. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2544.1
Yeh S-W, Kug J-S, Dewitte B, Kwon M-H, Kirtman BP, Jin F-F (2009) El Niño in a changing climate. Nature 461:511–515
Yeo S-R, Jhun J-G, Kim W (2012) Intraseasonal variability of western North Pacific subtropical high based on the El Niño influence and its relationship with East Asian summer monsoon. Asia-Pac J Atmos Sci 48:43–53. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-012-0005-7
Yu J-Y, Kao P-K, Paek H, Hsu H-H, Hung C-W, Lu M-M, An S-I (2015) Linking emergence of the central-Pacific El Niño to the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation. J Clim 28:651–662. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00347.1
Yu T, Feng J, Chen W, Wang X (2021) Persistence and breakdown of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone during the EP and CP El Niño decaying spring. Clim Dyn 57:3529–3544. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05882-x
Yuan Y, Yang S, Zhang Z (2012) Different evolutions of the Philippine Sea anticyclone between the eastern and central Pacific El Niño: possible effects of Indian Ocean SST. J Clim 25:7867–7883. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00004.1
Yun K-S, Yeh S-W, Ha K-J (2015) Covariability of western tropical Pacific-North Pacific atmospheric circulation during summer. Sci Rep 5:16980. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep16980
Zhang W, Jin F-F, Turner A (2014) Increasing autumn drought over southern China associated with ENSO regime shift. Geophysical Research Letter 41:4020–4026. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060130
Acknowledgements
This work was carried out through the project on development of climate and climate change surveillance·application techniques for climate prediction (KMI-2020-01112) funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA).
Funding
This research is funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) through grant KMI-2020–01112.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
J.-E. E. Kim and C. Yoo contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by J.-E. E. Kim. The first draft of the manuscript was written by J.-E. E. Kim, and all authors commented on the previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Ethics approval
Not applicable, as this article does not contain any studies with human or animal subjects.
Consent to participate
The data of this research were not prepared through a questionnaire.
Consent for publication
There is no conflict of interest regarding the publication of this article. The authors of the article make sure that everyone agrees to submit the article and is aware of the submission.
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher's note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Kim, JE.E., Yoo, C. & Park, SH. Interdecadal change in the relationship between the western North Pacific subtropical high and the ENSO. Theor Appl Climatol 151, 1435–1447 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04326-8
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04326-8