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Assessment of the impacts of climate change and brackish irrigation water on rice productivity and evaluation of adaptation measures in Ca Mau province, Vietnam

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Abstract

This study investigates the temporal impacts of climate change on rice yield for summer-autumn (SA) and autumn-winter (AW) cropping pattern along with implication of brackish irrigation water for the SA season. Furthermore, evaluation of different agro-adaptations to overcome negative impacts of climate change was also done for Ca Mau province of Vietnam. Climatic variables were derived from six general circulation models which were further bias corrected at Ca Mau city station for three future time periods (2025s, 2055s, and 2085s). Calibrated AquaCrop 4.0 was used to project the future rice yield under climate change and different salinity levels in irrigation water. Simulation shows a decline in rice yield ranging from 1.60 to 23.69 % and 8.06 to 20.15 % by 2085s relative to baseline climate for A2 and B2 scenarios respectively in the case of the SA cropping season. However, an increase in rice yield ranging from 3.29 to 12.35 % and 6.64 to 17.23 % is observed for the corresponding time period and scenarios. Further simulations for the SA cropping season under climate change and increasing salinity in irrigation water suggest an insignificant increase in yield relative to the yield obtained without irrigation. Moreover, proper management practices, namely forward and early shifts in transplanting dates along with increasing fertilizer application rates, are observed to be beneficial to enhance the rice yield under climate change.

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Acknowledgments

The financial support provided by the APEC climate center, Busan, South Korea, and the Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA) provided to the second author is acknowledged. In addition, wholehearted thanks are also given to the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development of Ca Mau city, Southern Regional Hydro-meteorological Center, and Can Tho University, Vietnam for providing all necessary data.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Water, Climate and Land Use (CWCL), Faculty of Science and Information Technology, School of Environmental and Life Sciences, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, Newcastle, 2308, Australia

    Proloy Deb

  2. Lehrstuhl für Wasserbau und Wasserwirtschaft Technische Universität München 21, 80333, Munich, Germany

    Duong Anh Tran

  3. International Research Center for River Basin Environment (ICRE), University of Yamanashi, Takeda 4-3-11, Kofu, Yamanashi, 400-8511, Japan

    Parmeshwar D. Udmale

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  1. Proloy Deb
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Correspondence to Proloy Deb.

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Deb, P., Tran, D.A. & Udmale, P.D. Assessment of the impacts of climate change and brackish irrigation water on rice productivity and evaluation of adaptation measures in Ca Mau province, Vietnam. Theor Appl Climatol 125, 641–656 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1525-8

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