Uncertainty of paddy irrigation requirement estimated from climate change projections in the Geumho river basin, Korea

Abstract

Despite evidence from numerous studies that over-reliance on a single General Circulation Model (GCM) could lead to inappropriate predictions or adaptation responses to climate change, single GCMs are still used in most mesoscale impact assessments. The objective of this article was to analyze the uncertainty associated with the use of multiple GCMs on future climate change impact assessments on the paddy irrigation water requirements in the Geumho river basin, Korea. Climate projections were extracted for 13 GCMs from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for A2, A1B, and B1 scenarios, downscaled using the change factor method and were then analyzed. The Food and Agricultural Organization CROPWAT model was used to calculate the paddy irrigation water requirements. Reference evapotranspiration and the crop water requirements were predicted to increase in future periods (2030s, 2055s, and 2090s). Rainfall predictions from the different GCMs exhibited high variability. The projected mean (range) of the paddy irrigation water requirement increase was 1.1% (−9 to 15%), 2.4% (−9 to 13%), and 7.9% (−4 to 24%) for the 2030s, 2055s, and 2090s, respectively, compared to the baseline values (1975s). The predicted irrigation water requirements for the future were shown to have a relative standard deviation of up to 7.1%. Regression analysis was performed on the trends of predicted water requirement over time using the coefficient of determination. It was concluded that multiple models should be used where possible to avoid inappropriate planning or adaptation responses particularly in the short term. Adaptation strategies are required to mitigate the future impact of increasing future water demand.