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Trend analysis of temperature and precipitation in the Syr Darya Basin in Central Asia

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Abstract

By investigating temperature and precipitation data from eight meteorological stations in the Syr Darya Basin (SDB) during 1881–2011 and 1891–2011, we analyzed trends using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test. Our results indicated that there was a notable increasing trend in annual temperature of 0.14 °C/decade (P < 0.05) and step change points in 1989 (P < 0.05). Similarly, annual precipitation showed a significant rising trend (P < 0.001) at a rate of 4.44 mm/decade and step change points in 1991 (P < 0.05). Overall, temperature and precipitation increases were more rapid in the plains than in the mountain areas. Furthermore, we found that temperature in the SDB region is strongly associated with the Asian Polar Vortex Area Index (APVAI, correlation coefficient: R = −0.701, P < 0.01) rather than with carbon dioxide emissions, especially in the plains area. For precipitation, the correlation coefficient is strongly associated with the Tibet Plateau Index (TPI, R = 0.490, P < 0.01), followed by the Antarctic Oscillation Index (AAOI, R = 0.343, P < 0.01), and the correlations in the plains are higher than those in the mountains. It is anticipated that the results of this study will further the understanding surrounding climate change in the SDB.

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Acknowledgments

This paper was sponsored by the National Basic Research Program of China (or 973 Program) (grant 2010CB951003). The authors thank the National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, for providing the atmospheric circulations indices data for this study. We are grateful to Dr. Hartmut Graßl and anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments on improving the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Resources and Environment, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830046, China

    Junqiang Yao

  2. Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology of Ministry of Education, Xinjiang University, 14, Shengli Road, Urumqi, 830046, China

    Junqiang Yao

  3. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS, 818, Beijing Nanlu, Urumqi, 830011, China

    Yaning Chen

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  1. Junqiang Yao
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Correspondence to Yaning Chen.

Appendix

Appendix

The Polar Vortex Area Index (PVAI) was defined by Wang and Ding (2009) as

$$ S=\frac{R^2\pi }{72}{\displaystyle {\sum}_{i=1}^n\left(1- \sin \phi \right)} $$
(11)

The Polar Vortex Intensity Index (PVII) was defined as

$$ I=\rho {R}^2\varDelta \phi \varDelta \lambda {\varSigma}_t{\varSigma}_j\left[{H}_0(M)-{H}_{i,j}\right] \cos {\phi}_t $$
(12)

where S is the Polar Vortex Area Index value for the specific region, I is the Polar Vortex Intensity Index value for the specific region, ϕ i is the latitude value of lattice in the northern portion of the polar vortex southern boundary, R is the radius of Earth, ρ is air mass density, Δϕ = Δλ = π/72, H 0(M) is the contour value of the polar vortex southern boundary, M is the location of southern boundary, H i,j is the height value of the northern lattice in the polar vortex southern boundary, and i, j is the number of lattices for longitude and latitude. The scope of latitude in the Asian polar vortex is 60°E–150°E.

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Yao, J., Chen, Y. Trend analysis of temperature and precipitation in the Syr Darya Basin in Central Asia. Theor Appl Climatol 120, 521–531 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1187-y

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