Abstract
The aim of this research is to analyze the biometeorological conditions, based on the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) thermal index, during cold spells (CSs) in south-east Poland and west Ukraine during the years 1966–2021. The research shows a high variability of the occurrence of CSs in the study period and a clear increase in the frequency and total duration of CSs in the east of the study area. The number of CSs in the analyzed years varies from 6 cases in the west (in Katowice) to 34 in the east of the study area (in Shepetivka). The total duration of CSs varied from 26 days (in Raciborz and Katowice) to 166 days (in Rivne). At the majority of stations, CSs occurred most frequently in the first two decades (1966/1967–1975/1976, 1976/1977–1985/986) and in the last full decade (2006/2007–2015/2016). The average PET values at 12:00 UTC during CSs decreased eastwards throughout the study domain and were generally lower than −20.0 °C in the west of Ukraine, while in south-east Poland varied between −18.1 and −20.0 °C. At 40% of stations across the study domain, the lowest average PET values were recorded during a cold spell in January 1987, with PET values varying from −28.0 °C in Chernivtsi to −12.7 °C in Yaremche. The longest or one of the longest spells in most stations (in 77% of stations across the study domain) was the cold spell of 2012 and characterized by mean PET values ranging from −25.4 °C in Rivne to −19.5 °C in Zakopane.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The data used in this research were obtained from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management—National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB) and from the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Centre. The data are available on request from the corresponding author with the permission of the IMGW-PIB and Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Centre.
References
Aylin P, Morris S, Wakefield J, Grossinho A, Jarup L, Elliott P (2001) Temperature, housing, deprivation and their relationship to excess winter mortality in Great Britain, 1986–1996. Int J Epidemiol 30:1100–1108. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/30.5.1100
Barnett AG, Hajat S, Gasparrini A, Rocklöv J (2012) Cold and heat waves in the United States. Environ Res 112:218–224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2011.12.010
Basarin B, Lukić T, Matzarakis A (2016) Quantification and assessment of heat and cold waves in Novi Sad, Northern Serbia. Int J Biometeorol 60:139–150. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-015-1012-z
Błażejczyk K, Epstein Y, Jendritzky G, Staiger H, Tinz B (2012) Comparison of UTCI to selected thermal indices. Int J Biometeorol 56(3):515–535
Błażejczyk K, Nejedlik P, Skrynyk O, Halas A, Skrynyk O, Błażejczyk A, Mikulova K (2021) Influence of geographical factors on thermal stress in northern Carpathians. Int J Biometeorol 65:1553–1566. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-02011-x
Çalışkan O, Çiçek İ, Matzarakis A (2012) The climate and bioclimate of Bursa (Turkey) from the perspective of tourism. Theor Appl Climatol 107:417–425. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0489-6
Cattiaux J, Vautard R, Cassou C, Yiou P, Masson-Delmotte V, Codron F (2010) Winter 2010 in Europe: a cold extreme in a warming climate. Geophys Res Lett 37. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044613
Di Napoli C, Pappenberger F, Cloke HL (2018) Assessing heat-related health risk in Europe via the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). Int J Biometeorol 62(7):1155–1165. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-018-1518-2
Di Napoli C, Barnard C, Prudhomme C, Cloke HL, Pappenberger F (2021) ERA5-HEAT: a global gridded historical dataset of human thermal comfort indices from climate reanalysis. Geosci Data J 8(1):2–10. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.553b7518
Fink AH, Brücher T, Krüger A, Leckebusch GC, Pinto JG, Ulbrich U (2004) The 2003 European summer heatwaves and drought -synoptic diagnosis and impacts. Weather 59:209–216. https://doi.org/10.1256/wea.73.04
Gulyás A, Matzarakis A (2009) Seasonal and spatial distribution of physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) index in Hungary. Időjárás 113:221–231
Hajat S, Kovats RS, Lachowycz K (2006) Heat-related and cold-related deaths in England and Wales: who is at risk? Occup Environ Med 64:93–100. https://doi.org/10.1136/oem.2006.029017
Höppe P (1999) The physiological equivalent temperature - a universal index for the biometeorological assessment of the thermal environment. Int J Biometeorol 43:71–75. https://doi.org/10.1007/s004840050118
Hoy A, Hänsel S, Skalak P, Ustrnul Z, Bochníček O (2017) The extreme European summer of 2015 in a long-term perspective. Int J Climatol 37:943–962. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4751
Idzikowska D (2010) Bioclimatic Conditions of Paris, Rome and Budapest on the Basis of the Universal Thermal Climate Index. Misc Geogr 14:103–109. https://doi.org/10.2478/mgrsd-2010-0010
Jendritzky G, De Dear R, Havenith G (2012) UTCI—Why another thermal index? Int J Biometeorol 56(3):421–428. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-011-0513-7
Kalkstein LS, Greene JS (1997) An evaluation of climate/mortality relationships in large U.S. cities and the possible impacts of a climate change. Environ Health Perspect 105:84–93. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.9710584
Katerusha O, Matzarakis A (2015) Thermal bioclimate and climate tourism analysis for Odessa, Black Sea. Geogr Ann Ser Phys Geogr 97:671–679. https://doi.org/10.1111/geoa.12107
Krzyżewska A, Dyer J (2018) The August 2015 mega-heatwave in Poland in the context of past events. Weather 73:207–214. https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3244
Krzyżewska A, Wereski S, Demczuk P (2020) Biometeorological conditions during an extreme heatwave event in Poland in August 2015. Weather 75:183–189. https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3497
Krzyżewska A, Wereski S, Dobek M (2021) Summer UTCI variability in Poland in the twenty-first century. Int J Biometeorol 65:1497–1513
Konstantinov PI, Varentsov MI, Shartova NV (2022) Environ Res Lett 17:085006. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7fa9
Kuchcik M (2020) Mortality and thermal environment (UTCI) in Poland—long-term, multi-city study. Int J Biometeorol 65:1529–1541. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-01995-w
Kuchcik M, Błażejczyk K, Halaś A (2021) Long-term changes in hazardous heat and cold stress in humans: multi-city study in Poland. Int J Biometeorol 65:1567–1578
Kyselý J (2008) Influence of the persistence of circulation patterns on warm and cold temperature anomalies in Europe: Analysis over the 20th century. Glob Planet Chang 62:47–163. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.01.003
Kyselý J, Plavcová E, Davídkovová H, Kynčl J (2011) Comparison of hot and cold spell effects on cardiovascular mortality in individual population groups in the Czech Republic. Clim Res 49:113–129. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01014
Laschewski G, Jendritzky G (2002) Effects of the thermal environment on human health: an investigation of 30 years of daily mortality data from SW Germany. Clim Res 21:91–103. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr021091
Lavaysse C, Cammalleri C, Dosio A, van der Schrier G, Toreti A, Vogt J (2018) Towards a monitoring system of temperature extremes in Europe. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 18:91–104. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-91-2018
L’Heureux M, Butler A, Jha B, Kumar A, Wang W (2010) Unusual extremes in the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation during 2009. Geophys Res Lett 37. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043338
Lhotka O, Kyselý J (2015) Characterizing joint effects of spatial extent, temperature magnitude and duration of heat waves and cold spells over Central Europe. Int J Climatol 35:1232–1244. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4050
Matzarakis A, Nastos PT (2013) Analysis of tourism potential for Crete island, Greece. Glob NEST J 13:14–149. https://doi.org/10.30955/gnj.000774
Matzarakis A, Mayer H, Iziomon MG (1999) Applications of a universal thermal index: physiological equivalent temperature. Int J Biometeorol 43:76–84. https://doi.org/10.1007/s004840050119
Matzarakis A, Rutz F, Mayer H (2007) Modelling radiation fluxes in simple and complex environments—application of the RayMan model. Int J Biometeorol 51:323–334. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-006-0061-8
Matzarakis A, De Rocco M, Najjar G (2009) Thermal bioclimate in Strasbourg - the 2003 heat wave. Theor Appl Climatol 98:209–220. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-009-0102-4
Matzarakis A, Hämmerle M, Koch E, Rudel E (2012) The climate tourism potential of Alpine destinations using the example of Sonnblick, Rauris and Salzburg. Theor Appl Climatol 110:645–658. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0686-y
Matzarakis A, Fröhlich D, Bermon S, Adami PE (2018) Quantifying Thermal Stress for Sport Events—The Case of the Olympic Games 2020 in Tokyo. Atmosphere 9:479. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9120479
Mayer H, Höppe P (1987) Thermal comfort of man in different urban environments. Theor Appl Climatol 38:43–49. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00866252
Miszuk B (2021) Evaluation of Tourism-Climate Conditions in the Region of Kłodzko Land (Poland). Atmosphere 12:07. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12070907
Potchter O, Cohen P, Lin T-P, Matzarakis A (2018) Outdoor human thermal perception in various climates: A comprehensive review of approaches, methods and quantification. Sci Total Environ 631–632:390–406. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.276
Pinchuk DB, Zatula VI (2022) Cold Waves in Ukraine in Cold Season 2011–2020. In: 16th International Conference Monitoring of Geological Processes and Ecological Condition of the Environment. Presented at the 16th International Conference Monitoring of Geological Processes and Ecological Condition of the Environment. European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers, Kyiv, Ukraine, pp 1–5. https://doi.org/10.3997/2214-4609.2022580019
Piticar A, Croitoru A-E, Ciupertea F-A, Harpa G-V (2018) Recent changes in heat waves and cold waves detected based on excess heat factor and excess cold factor in Romania. Int J Climatol 38:1777–1793. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5295
Porebska M, Zdunek M (2013) Analysis of extreme temperature events in Central Europe related to high pressure blocking situations in 2001-2011. Meteorol Z 22:533–540. https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0455
Rahmstorf S, Coumou D (2011) Increase of extreme events in a warming world. Proc Natl Acad Sci 108:17905–17909. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1101766108
Rebetez M, Dupont O, Giroud M (2009) An analysis of the July 2006 heatwave extent in Europe compared to the record year of 2003. Theor Appl Climatol 95:1–7. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-007-0370-9
Roshan G, Ghanghermeh A, Kong Q (2018) Spatial and temporal analysis of outdoor human thermal comfort during heat and cold waves in Iran. Weather Clim Extrem 19:58–67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.01.005
Shevchenko O, Lee H, Snizhko S, Mayer H (2014) Long-term analysis of heat waves in Ukraine. Int J Climatol 34:1642–1650. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3792
Shevchenko O, Snizhko S, Matzarakis A (2020) Recent trends on human thermal bioclimate conditions in Kyiv, Ukraine. Geogr Pol 93:89–106. https://doi.org/10.7163/GPol.0164
Shevchenko O, Snizhko S, Zapototskyi S, Matzarakis A (2022a) Biometeorological Conditions during the August 2015 Mega-Heat Wave and the Summer 2010 Mega-Heat Wave in Ukraine. Atmosphere 13:99. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13010099
Shevchenko O, Snizhko S, Zapototskyi S, Svintsitska H, Matviienko M, Matzarakis A (2022b) Long-term analysis of thermal comfort conditions during heat waves in Ukraine. Geogr Pol 95:53–70. https://doi.org/10.7163/GPol.0226
Spinoni J, Lakatos M, Szentimrey T, Bihari Z, Szalai S, Vogt J, Antofie T (2015a) Heat and cold waves trends in the Carpathian Region from 1961 to 2010. Int J Climatol 35:4197–4209. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4279
Spinoni J, Szalai S, Szentimrey T, Lakatos M, Bihari Z, Nagy A, Németh Á, Kovács T, Mihic D, Dacic M, Petrovic P, Kržič A, Hiebl J, Auer I, Milkovic J, Štepánek P, Zahradnícek P, Kilar P, Limanowka D et al (2015b) Climate of the Carpathian Region in the period 1961-2010: climatologies and trends of 10 variables. Int J Climatol 35:1322–1341. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4059
The Climate of Ukraine (2003) Vydavnytstvo Rayevskogo. Kyiv, Ukraine
Tomassini L, Gerber EP, Baldwin MP, Bunzel F, Giorgetta M (2012) The role of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the occurrence of extreme winter cold spells over northern Europe. J Adv Model Earth Syst 4. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012MS000177
Tomczyk AM (2022) Temperatura powietrza. In: Tomczyk AM, Bednorz E (eds) Atlas klimatu Polski, Poznań: Bogucki Wydawnictwo Naukowe, p 126
Tomczyk AM, Bednorz E (2016) Heat waves in Central Europe and their circulation conditions. Int J Climatol 36:770–782. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4381
Tomczyk AM, Bednorz E, Półrolniczak M, Kolendowicz L (2019a) Strong heat and cold waves in Poland in relation with the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Theor Appl Climatol 137:1909–1923. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2715-y
Tomczyk AM, Bednorz E, Sulikowska A (2019b) Cold spells in Poland and Germany and their circulation conditions. Int J Climatol 39:4002–4014. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6054
Tomczyk AM, Bednorz E, Matzarakis A (2020) Human-biometeorological conditions during heat waves in Poland. Int J Climatol 40:5043–5055. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6503
Tringa E, Tolika K, Anagnostopoulou C, Kostopoulou E (2022) A Climatological and Synoptic Analysis of Winter Cold Spells over the Balkan Peninsula. Atmosphere 13:1851. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13111851
Urban A, Di Napoli C, Cloke HL, Kyselý J, Pappenberger F, Sera F, Schneider R, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Acquaotta F, Ragettli MS, Íñiguez C, Tobias A, Indermitte E, Orru H, Jaakkola JJK, Ryti NRI, Pascal M, Huber V, Schneider A et al (2021) Evaluation of the ERA5 reanalysis-based Universal Thermal Climate Index on mortality data in Europe. Environ Res 198:111227. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2021.111227
Vanos JK, Warland JS, Gillespie TJ, Kenny NA (2010) Review of the physiology of human thermal comfort while exercising in urban landscapes and implications for bioclimatic design. Int J Biometeorol 54:319–334. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-010-0301-9
Wibig J, Podstawczyńska A, Rzepa M, Piotrowski P (2009) Coldwaves in Poland–Frequency, trends and relationships with atmospheric circulation. Geogr Pol 82:47–59
Zhang R, Chen Z-Y, Ou C-Q, Zhuang Y (2017) Trends of Heat Waves and Cold Spells over 1951–2015 in Guangzhou, China. Atmosphere 8:37. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8020037
Funding
This work was supported by the National Science Centre, Poland (grant number UMO-2020/37/B/ST10/00217).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by AMT and OS. The first draft of the manuscript was written by AMT and OS, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no competing interests.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Tomczyk, A.M., Shevchenko, O. & Matzarakis, A. Biometeorological conditions during cold spells in south-east Poland and west Ukraine. Int J Biometeorol 67, 2025–2036 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-023-02559-4
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-023-02559-4