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Estimation of a hybrid slip model and its application to stochastic simulation of the Mw 6.6 earthquake on September 5, 2022, in Luding, China

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Abstract

At 12:52 (local time, UTC + 08:00) on September 5, 2022, an earthquake of magnitude 6.6 occurred in Luding of the Sichuan Province (southwest China). Combined with the empirical relationship between magnitude and global–local source parameters, the hybrid source model of the Luding earthquake was applied. In a simulation, the source model was mainly described by global source parameters and local source parameters. Based on the empirical relationship between global source parameters and magnitude, we obtained the mean values of global source parameters. In combination with the standard deviation given by the empirical formula, the source parameters satisfying the mean value and standard deviation were generated based on the modified truncated normal distribution function. The observation points were selected considering the various geological conditions and orientations, and then, they were generated based on the acceleration waveforms of the selected observation points using the finite-fault approach through the dynamic corner frequency. Next, their values were used to calculate the acceleration response spectra of these target points. Then, the source model corresponding to the 5% damped pseudospectral acceleration (PSA) with the minimum residual of the average response spectra was selected and is finally set as the optimal source model for the Luding earthquake in China. Finally, the slip distributions of two models were compared, the response spectra were obtained, and the impacts of the two source models on the simulation results were investigated. The results verified the reliability of the source model estimated in this study and showed that the influence of the source model on the simulation results is mainly present in the short period. In addition, the results indicate that the method obtained in this study can be used to quickly predict the source model for earthquake scenarios.

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Data availability

The commonly used EXSIM Fortran program is available from the website: https://www.daveboore.com/software_online.html (last accessed September 2018). Some parameters required for the ground motion simulation were collected from Han et al. (2022). The data supporting the funding of this study are available from the Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration upon reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are thankful to the CSMNC for providing the Luding earthquake ground motion records. The authors would like to thank Bingquan Han, who is a doctoral student at the College of Geological Engineering and Geomatics, Chang’an University, for providing the inverted source data. The authors thank Linjian Ji, an employee of the Central and Southern China Municipal Engineering Design & Research Institute Co., Ltd, for providing simulation coda and all partners for their valuable comments. The AJE provides the language polishing services, and the authors would like to express their sincerely gratitude to AJE. Finally, the authors would like to express gratitude to the editors and two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments.

Funding

This research was financially supported by the National Key Research & Development Program of China (Grant No. 2022YFC3003601), the Natural National Science Foundation for Young Scientists of China (Grant No. 42204050), the Postdoctoral Program of International Training Program for Young Talents of Guangdong Province, and the Postdoctoral Office of Guangzhou City, China (Grant No. 62216242).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Civil Engineering, Guangzhou University, No.230 Waihuan West Road, Guangzhou, 510006, Guangdong, China

    Pengfei Dang, Jie Cui & Yadong Li

  2. Guangdong Engineering Research Center for Underground Infrastructural Protection in Coastal Clay Area, No.230 Waihuan West Road, Guangzhou, China

    Pengfei Dang, Jie Cui & Yadong Li

  3. Earth System Science Programme. Faculty of Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, 999077, Hong Kong, China

    Pengfei Dang

  4. School of Civil Engineering, Suzhou University of Science and Technology, No.1701 Binhe Road, Suzhou, 215011, Jiangsu, China

    Qifang Liu

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  1. Pengfei Dang
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  2. Jie Cui
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by PF Dang. The first draft of the manuscript was written by PF Dang and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Pengfei Dang.

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Dang, P., Cui, J., Li, Y. et al. Estimation of a hybrid slip model and its application to stochastic simulation of the Mw 6.6 earthquake on September 5, 2022, in Luding, China. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 37, 4175–4196 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-023-02500-6

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