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Non-point source evaluation of groundwater nitrate contamination from agriculture under geologic uncertainty

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Abstract

The long-term effect of non-point source pollution on groundwater from agricultural practices is a major concern globally. Non-point source pollutants such as nitrate that occurs through fertilizers and animal waste eventually make their way into the aquifer by infiltrating soil. The goal of this study is to develop an approach for characterization of nitrate concentrations at potential source locations under conditions of geologic uncertainty. A Bayesian framework using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach is developed to estimate posterior probability distributions of non-point sources by incorporating nitrate concentration data as well as geologic uncertainties. The proposed approach is tested using hypothetical contamination scenarios and then validated using an application case study in North Carolina. Uncertainty existing in geologic formation (i.e., heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity field) is treated as prior and used in evaluating the likelihood function that measures the match between observed and simulated concentrations. The likelihood function computation involves a numerical model that simulates nitrate transport in groundwater from non-point agricultural sources and predicts nitrate concentrations at observation wells. Effectiveness of the MCMC approach is evaluated through a convergence analysis. Comparison among different sampling algorithms is carried out with respect to MCMC convergence diagnostics and making inference. The Bayesian inference analysis methodology developed in this research will help decision makers and water managers to identify potential areas for source containment and decide if further sampling is required.

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Acknowledgements

This research is supported in part by the Research and Innovation Seed Funding (RISF) from North Carolina State University. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the North Carolina State University.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University, 208 Mann Hall, Campus, Box 7908, Raleigh, NC, 27695, USA

    Riyana Ayub & Kumar Mahinthakumar

  2. Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA

    Kyle P. Messier & Marc L. Serre

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  1. Riyana Ayub
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Ayub, R., Messier, K.P., Serre, M.L. et al. Non-point source evaluation of groundwater nitrate contamination from agriculture under geologic uncertainty. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 33, 939–956 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-019-01669-z

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