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Spectral band decomposition combined with nonlinear models: application to indoor formaldehyde concentration forecasting

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Abstract

This paper proposes a new approach for forecasting continuous indoor air quality time series and in particular the concentration of a common air pollutant in offices like formaldehyde. Forecasting is achieved through the combination of the spectral band decomposition using fast Fourier transform and nonlinear time series modeling. Two nonlinear models have been tested: a threshold autoregressive (TAR) model and a Chaos dynamics-based modeling. This study shows the benefit of the Fourier decomposition coupled with nonlinear modeling of each extracted component, compared to forecasting applied directly on the raw data. Both TAR and Chaos dynamics models are able to reproduce nonlinearities, with slightly better performance in the case of the second model. These hybrid models provide good performance on forecast time horizon up to 12 h ahead.

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Acknowledgements

This work received financial support from the French research program on air quality (PRIMEQUAL) through the Grant No 12-MRES-PRIMEQUAL-4-CVS-09. The autors are grateful to the reviewers who contributed to the manuscript quality improvement.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University Paris-Est, Center for Study and Research on Thermics, Environment and Systems (CERTES, EA3481), University Paris-Est, Créteil 61, avenue du Général de Gaulle, Créteil Cedex, 94010, France

    Rachid Ouaret, Anda Ionescu & Yves Candau

  2. French Indoor Air Quality Observatory, Scientific and Technical Center for Building (CSTB), University Paris-Est, 84 Avenue Jean Jaurès, Champs-sur-Marne, 77420, France

    Olivier Ramalho

  3. Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Civil Engineering of Bucharest, Lacul Tei Bvd., no. 122 - 124. RO 020396, sector 2., Bucharest, Romania

    Viorel Petrehus

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  1. Rachid Ouaret
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  2. Anda Ionescu
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  3. Viorel Petrehus
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  4. Yves Candau
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  5. Olivier Ramalho
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Correspondence to Rachid Ouaret.

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Ouaret, R., Ionescu, A., Petrehus, V. et al. Spectral band decomposition combined with nonlinear models: application to indoor formaldehyde concentration forecasting. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 32, 985–997 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-017-1510-0

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