Patients
A total of 133 patients were included in the study: 47 NP-C EOA cases and 86 EOA controls (Table 1). The proportions of female patients in the NP-C EOA case and EOA control groups were similar (49 and 44 %, respectively). The mean (SD; range) age of NP-C EOA cases was lower [24 (13) years; 4–52] than that in the EOA control group [31 (12) years; 7–62].
Table 1 Patient demographics
In the EOA control group, 35/86 (41 %) of the index EOA cases remained genetically unexplained after screening for the panel of 122 known ataxia-related gene mutations, while a molecular diagnosis for causal ataxia gene mutations was established in 51/86 (59 %) cases (Supplementary Table 1).
Signs and symptoms: descriptive data
The frequencies of NP-C signs and symptoms included in the original NP-C SI tool [15] in both EOA groups are summarised in Fig. 1. Among neurological manifestations, VSGP, cognitive decline/dementia and dysarthria/dysphagia were all recorded in association with ataxia in >80 % of NP-C EOA cases. Among EOA controls, the most common neurological manifestations (observed in >50 % patients) were dysarthria/dysphagia (in 87 % patients) and spasticity (in 58 %).
Descriptive data analysis allowed identification of the most frequent NP-C disease manifestations that occurred substantially more frequently in NP-C EOA cases compared with EOA controls, and which could therefore potentially serve as differentiating features between these two specific patient groups. These included VSGP (in 94 % of NP-C EOA cases versus 8 % of EOA controls; p < 0.001), cognitive decline and/or dementia (94 versus 23 %, respectively; p < 0.001), splenomegaly (47 versus 0 %; p < 0.001), dystonia (49 versus 5 %; p < 0.001), any psychotic signs other than cognitive decline/dementia (6–30 versus 7 %; p values 0.101 to <0.001), and seizures (28 versus 8 %; p = 0.004).
Notably, dysarthria/dysphagia and delayed developmental milestones occurred in similar proportions of patients in the two patient groups. ‘Acquired and progressive spasticity’ was more common in the general EOA population compared with NP-C EOA cases (58 versus 32 %, respectively; p = 0.006).
Assessment of original NP-C SI performance
Findings from the descriptive analysis of the proportions of patients with low (0–39 points), moderate (40–69 points) or high (≥70 points) RPS are summarised in Fig. 2. A notable number of EOA control patients had a moderate [n = 16/86 (19 %)] or high [n = 8/86 (9 %)] RPS. However, the scores of the NP-C EOA cases were significantly higher (p < 0.001, Fisher’s exact test), and most of them had a high RPS [46/47 (98 %)].
Figure 3 illustrates findings from the analysis of RPS sensitivity and specificity in NP-C EOA cases versus EOA controls. Predictably, specificity increased and sensitivity decreased as total RPS rose. The cut-off RPS of 40 (for moderate suspicion) provided a sensitivity of 100 % and a specificity of 70 %. The cut-off RPS of 70 (for high suspicion) provided a sensitivity of 98 % and a specificity of 91 %.
Univariable linear regression modelling and ROC analysis of RPS revealed an AUC of 0.982 in NP-C EOA cases versus EOA controls (Supplementary Fig. S1), which compares well with findings from a post hoc subgroup analysis for patients aged ≥4 years who were included in the original SI development study (AUC 0.997) [15].
The discriminatory performance of the NP-C SI appeared unaffected by patient age (Fig. 4). Area under the curve values for subgroups of patients aged >4, >10 and >18 years were 0.982, 0.980 and 0.977, respectively, indicating excellent performance across all age groups.
Assessment of 2/3 SI performance
Given that clinical routine often requires very rapid and efficient bedside testing, we evaluated a shorter form of the NP-C SI that required assessment of only three clinical features, called the ‘2 out of 3’ tool (‘2/3’ SI). From the panel of 21 original SI items, VSGP, pre-senile cognitive decline and/or dementia, dystonia, and splenomegaly were identified as those with the greatest sensitivity and specificity for the detection of NP-C (Table 2). For the 2/3 SI only the first three features were selected (VSGP, pre-senile cognitive decline and/or dementia, and dystonia).
Table 2 Findings from sensitivity and specificity analyses of the five NP-C SI key signs and symptoms providing the best performance based on co-occurrence with ataxia
We observed a clear difference in the distribution of 2/3 SI scores between NP-C EOA cases and EOA controls (Fig. 5). In total, 90 % of NP-C EOA cases had 2/3 SI scores of 2 or 3. In contrast, 90 % of EOA controls had scores of 0 or 1 on this tool. Based on ROC analyses, the 2/3 SI tool was effective at discriminating NP-C EOA cases from EOA controls, providing an AUC of 0.961 in NP-C EOA cases versus EOA controls, which is comparable with the excellent value achieved with the original SI tool in this ataxia cohort.
From sensitivity and specificity analyses at different 2/3 SI score levels, a score of 1 point (indicating moderate suspicion) provided a sensitivity of 100 % and a specificity of 73 %, and a score of 2 points (indicating high suspicion) provided a sensitivity of 89 % and a specificity of 91 %. A score of 3 points provided 100 % specificity: sensitivity at this level was relatively low (47 %).
Post hoc statistical testing, taking 2 points on the 2/3 tool and a score of 70 on the original SI as cut-off values indicating high suspicion of NP-C, indicated that the original SI had the greatest overall sensitivity (0.89 versus 0.98; p = 0.0078).
Subgroup analysis excluding VSGP and Friedreich’s ataxia
We conducted subgroup analyses to assess the effect of absent VSGP on original SI and 2/3 SI performance, and the influence of Friedreich’s ataxia (FRDA) on the sensitivity and specificity of both SI scores. Predictably, the absence of VSGP rendered the 2/3 SI substantially less sensitive for the detection of NP-C, while the sensitivity of the original SI was relatively unaffected (Supplementary Fig. S2). The preponderance of FRDA in our cohort had no influence on the observed sensitivity or specificity of either the original SI or the 2/3 SI (Supplementary Fig. S2).