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Nomogram predicting the cancer-specific survival of early-onset colorectal cancer patients with synchronous liver metastasis: a population-based study

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International Journal of Colorectal Disease Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Purpose

This research aimed to explore prognostic factors for early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) patients with liver metastasis (LM) and develop nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS) probability quantitatively.

Methods

Our study included 4368 EO-CRC patients with LM registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2017. Potential prognostic factors for EO-CRC patients with LM were identified by multivariable Cox regression analysis. Prognostic nomogram was subsequently constructed based on these prognostic factors. The discriminative ability, calibration, and clinical usefulness of the nomogram were assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

In the training cohort, marital status, primary tumor location, histopathological grade, T stage, number of metastatic organs, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), perineural invasion (PI), surgery of primary site, chemotherapy, radiation therapy, and metastatic lymph nodes ratio (LNR) were prognostic factors for cancer-specific mortality of EO-CRC patients with LM. The 1-, 2-, and 3-year AUC values of the prognostic nomogram were 0.777, 0.781, and 0.788, respectively. Calibration curves indicated acceptable agreement between nomogram-predicted survival and actual observed survival at 1, 2, and 3 years. DCA curves exhibited good positive net benefits in the prognostic model in most threshold probabilities at different time points. All of these results were reproducible in the validation cohort.

Conclusions

This study identified prognostic factors for EO-CRC patients with LM and developed a prognostic nomogram with good performance and clinical usability, which may help clinicians make better treatment decisions.

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Availability of data and material

The data used in this study can be obtained from the SEER*Stat software (version 8.3.9; https://seer.cancer.gov/seerstat/).

Code availability

Not applicable.

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Acknowledgements

We thank the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program for their generous provision of clinical data.

Funding

This work was supported by the Natural Science Foundation Program of China Programs (81900533 and 82103457).

Author information

Author notes

  1. Xueliang Ding and Xiaodong Yang contribute equally to this work.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Clinical Laboratory, Affiliated Renhe Hospital of China Three Gorges University, Yichang, 443001, China

    Xueliang Ding, Xiaodong Yang, Dafu Wu, Yaguang Huang & Yanwen Dai

  2. Department of Pathology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450052, China

    Jiajing Li

  3. Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450052, China

    Weilong Chang

  4. Department of Scientific Research, Affiliated Renhe Hospital of China Three Gorges University, Yichang, 443001, China

    Mozhen Chi

  5. Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430022, China

    Shaobo Tian

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  1. Xueliang Ding
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Contributions

XD and XY: data acquisition and processing, statistical analysis, and manuscript drafting. DW, YH, YD, and JL: manuscript’s critical revision, technique assistance, and data curation. WC, MC, and ST: research design, results interpretation, and critical revision of the manuscript.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Weilong Chang, Mozhen Chi or Shaobo Tian.

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Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

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Data used in this study were obtained from publicly available database. Therefore, this study did not require the approval of the Ethics Committee of Affiliated Renhe Hospital of China Three Gorges University, China.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Ding, X., Yang, X., Wu, D. et al. Nomogram predicting the cancer-specific survival of early-onset colorectal cancer patients with synchronous liver metastasis: a population-based study. Int J Colorectal Dis 37, 1309–1319 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00384-022-04175-x

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