Abstract
Quantifying the extent of change in climatic and hydrological variables in the past and the future is essential for climate change-resilient development, especially in the climate change sensitive region of Nepal. This paper analyzed future climatic trends and extremes, historical hydrological extremes and their linkage with historical precipitation extremes, and discussed the impacts of climate change on various sectors in the less-studied Small and Medium-sized Eastern River Basins (SMERB) of Nepal. Applying an ensemble of five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models (GCMs), we evaluated 10 precipitation and 13 temperature extreme indices using Climpact2 for the historical (1979–2020), near-future (2021–2045), mid-future (2046–2070) and far-future (2071–2100) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP), SSP245 and SSP585. Hydrological extreme indices were assessed using Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration tool. Projected climate revealed significant increase (9–73%) in annual and seasonal rainfall except winter; frequent intense rainfall extremes but prolonged dry spells; significant increasing minimum and maximum temperature trends (0.4–5 °C); rise in extreme heat events; increasing minimum and maximum discharge extreme trends in most hydrological stations; as well as strong association between maximum 1 day precipitation (Rx1day) and 1 day max flow for all stations. Growing dry periods but intense rainfall in few wet days, coupled with warming pattern all-over SMERB with frequent extreme events indicate high risk for future climate-related disasters. The harsher climate will potentially have damaging implications, especially in climate-induced disasters, food security, and water and sanitation infrastructure.
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Data availability
The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), Government of Nepal provided precipitation, temperature and discharge data for selected stations, which can be purchased from http://www.dhm.gov.np. GCM outputs were obtained from Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) archive through ESGF data portals (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/).
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Acknowledgements
The authors would like to extend their heartfelt gratitude towards the Department of Civil Engineering, Pulchowk Campus, Tribhuvan University, Nepal. The authors would also like to thank the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), Government of Nepal for providing hydro-meteorological data.
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AS, BS, BS, AS, and AM contributed equally by means of actual implementing the ideas and framework suggested by supervisors. They prepared first draft of the manuscript under guidance of supervisors. PKB and VPP supervised the study, along with formulation of framework, setting-up research questions, structuring framework of manuscript, and reviewing and refining draft of manuscripts.
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Shrestha, A., Subedi, B., Shrestha, B. et al. Projected trends in hydro-climatic extremes in small-to-mid-sized watersheds in eastern Nepal based on CMIP6 outputs. Clim Dyn 61, 4991–5015 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06836-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06836-1