Abstract
Considering the sensitivity and importance of water resources in the Himalayan uplands, this study intended to assess the hydrological responses to climate change in the Jhelum basin. Representative concentration pathway (RCP)–based projections from six dynamically downscaled global circulation models (GCMs) were bias-corrected for developing the climatic projections over the twenty-first century. The uncertainty associated with GCM outputs was addressed by using multi-model ensemble projections developed through Bayesian model averaging (BMA) technique. The assessment reveals that compared to the baseline (1980–2010) values, the annual mean maximum temperature in the basin will rise by 0.41–2.31 °C and 0.63–4.82 °C, and the mean minimum temperature will increase by 1.39–2.37 °C and 2.14–4.34 °C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. While precipitation is expected to decrease by 7.2–4.57% and 4.75–2.47% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, correspondingly. BMA ensemble projections were coupled with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate the future hydrological scenarios of the drainage basin. With the changing climate, the discharge of rivers in the Jhelum basin is expected to witness reductions by about 23–37% for RCP4.5 and 19–46% for RCP8.5. Moreover, the water yield of the basin may also exhibit decreases of 17–25% for RCP4.5 and 18–42% for RCP8.5. The projected scenarios are likely to cause water stress, affect the availability of water for diverse uses, and trigger transboundary water-sharing-related conflicts. The impact of climate change on discharge demands early attention for the formulation of mitigation and adaptive measures at the regional level and beyond.
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Acknowledgements
The Working Group on Regional Climate of the World Climate Research Programme and the Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which served as CORDEX former coordinating body and was responsible for CMIP5, are respectfully recognized. The authors are grateful to the climate modeling groups for creating and making their model results public. CORDEX South Asia data was provided via the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) infrastructure and the Climate Data Portal at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) for Climate Change Research (CCCR). The authors would like to thank the developers of the CMIP5 climate models for keeping the data in the public domain. Acknowledgments are also due to the developers of the SWAT model and SWAT CUP software.
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This research has been funded by University Grants Commission, New Delhi, under the CPEPA scheme being currently carried out at the University of Kashmir, Srinagar-190006.
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The research was conceived and supervised by M. Sultan Bhat and Akhtar Alam. Shafkat Ahsan carried out the analysis and wrote the first draft. M. Sultan Bhat and Akhtar Alam edited the draft. Hilal Ahmed Sheikh and Hakim Farooq designed the artwork. All authors commented on the previous versions of the manuscript and approved the final manuscript.
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Ahsan, S., Bhat, M.S., Alam, A. et al. Complementary use of multi-model climate ensemble and Bayesian model averaging for projecting river hydrology in the Himalaya. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 38898–38920 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-24913-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-24913-6