Abstract
How atmospheric and oceanic processes control North American precipitation variability has been extensively investigated, and yet debates remain. Here we address this question in a 50 km-resolution flux-adjusted global climate model. The high spatial resolution and flux adjustment greatly improve the model’s ability to realistically simulate North American precipitation, the relevant tropical and midlatitude variability and their teleconnections. Comparing two millennium-long simulations with and without an interactive ocean, we find that the leading modes of North American precipitation variability on seasonal and longer timescales exhibit nearly identical spatial and spectral characteristics, explained fraction of total variance and associated atmospheric circulation. This finding suggests that these leading modes arise from internal atmospheric dynamics and atmosphere-land coupling. However, in the fully coupled simulation, North American precipitation variability still correlates significantly with tropical ocean variability, consistent with observations and prior literature. We find that tropical ocean variability does not create its own type of atmospheric variability but excites internal atmospheric modes of variability in midlatitudes. This oceanic impact on North American precipitation is secondary to atmospheric impacts based on correlation. However, relative to the simulation without an interactive ocean, the fully coupled simulation amplifies precipitation variance over southwest North America (SWNA) during late spring to summer by up to 90%. The amplification is caused by a stronger variability in atmospheric moisture content that is attributed to tropical Pacific sea surface temperature variability. Enhanced atmospheric moisture variations over the tropical Pacific are transported by seasonal mean southwesterly winds into SWNA, resulting in larger precipitation variance.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Barsugli JJ, Sardeshmukh PD (2002) Global atmospheric sensitivity to tropical sst anomalies throughout the Indo-Pacific Basin. J Clim 15:3427–3442. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015%3c3427:GASTTS%3e2.0.CO;2
Bates GT, Hoerling MP, Kumar A (2001) Central U.S. springtime precipitation extremes: teleconnections and relationships with sea surface temperature. J Clim 14:3751–3766. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014%3c3751:CUSSPE%3e2.0.CO;2
Bjerknes J (1966) A possible response of the atmospheric Hadley circulation to equatorial anomalies of ocean temperature. Tellus 18:820–829. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1966.tb00303.x
Bjerknes J (1969) Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon Weather Rev 97:163–172. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1969)097%3c0163:ATFTEP%3e2.3.CO;2
Bretherton CS, Battisti DS (2000) An interpretation of the results from atmospheric general circulation models forced by the time history of the observed sea surface temperature distribution. Geophys Res Lett 27:767–770. https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL010910
Castro CL, McKee TB, Pielke RA (2001) The relationship of the North American Monsoon to Tropical and North Pacific Sea Surface temperatures as revealed by observational analyses. J Clim 14:4449–4473. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014%3c4449:TROTNA%3e2.0.CO;2
Chen P, Newman M (1998) Rossby wave propagation and the rapid development of upper-level anomalous anticyclones during the 1988 U.S. Drought J Clim 11:2491–2504. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011%3c2491:RWPATR%3e2.0.CO;2
Chen Z, Gan B, Wu L, Jia F (2018) Pacific-North American teleconnection and North Pacific Oscillation: historical simulation and future projection in CMIP5 models. Clim Dyn 50:4379–4403. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3881-9
Compo GP, Whitaker JS, Sardeshmukh PD et al (2011) The Twentieth Century reanalysis project. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:1–28. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.776
Cook BI, Miller RL, Seager R (2009) Amplification of the North American “Dust Bowl” drought through human-induced land degradation. PNAS 106:4997–5001. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0810200106
Cook BI, Seager R, Miller RL (2011) Atmospheric circulation anomalies during two persistent north american droughts: 1932–1939 and 1948–1957. Clim Dyn 36:2339–2355. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0807-1
Dai Y, Feldstein SB, Tan B, Lee S (2017) Formation mechanisms of the Pacific-North American Teleconnection with and without Its canonical tropical convection pattern. J Clim 30:3139–3155. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0411.1
Deser C, Simpson IR, McKinnon KA, Phillips AS (2017) The northern hemisphere extratropical atmospheric circulation response to ENSO: how well do we know it and how do we evaluate models accordingly? J Clim 30:5059–5082. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0844.1
Enfield DB, Mestas-Nuñez AM, Trimble PJ (2001) The Atlantic Multidecadal oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S. Geophys Res Lett 28:2077–2080. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012745
Geisler JE, Blackmon ML, Bates GT, Muñoz S (1985) Sensitivity of january climate response to the magnitude and position of equatorial pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. J Atmos Sci 42:1037–1049. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1985)042%3c1037:SOJCRT%3e2.0.CO;2
Harris I, Jones P, Osborn T, Lister D (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations—the CRU TS3.10 Dataset. Int J Climatol 34:623–642. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3711
He J, Deser C, Soden BJ (2017) Atmospheric and oceanic origins of tropical precipitation variability. J Clim 30:3197–3217. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0714.1
He J, Johnson NC, Vecchi GA et al (2018a) Precipitation sensitivity to local variations in tropical sea surface temperature. J Clim 31:9225–9238. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0262.1
He J, Kirtman B, Soden BJ et al (2018b) Impact of Ocean Eddy resolution on the sensitivity of precipitation to CO2 increase. Geophys Res Lett 45:7194–7203. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078235
Henderson SA, Vimont DJ, Newman M (2020) The critical role of non-normality in partitioning tropical and extratropical contributions to PNA growth. J Clim 33:6273–6295. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0555.1
Herweijer C, Seager R, Cook ER (2006) North American droughts of the mid to late nineteenth century: a history, simulation and implication for Mediaeval drought. The Holocene
Hoerling M, Kumar A (2003) The perfect ocean for drought. Science 299:691–694. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1079053
Hoerling M, Quan X-W, Eischeid J (2009) Distinct causes for two principal US droughts of the 20th century. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL039860
Hoerling MP, Kumar A (1997) Why do North American climate anomalies differ from one El Niño event to another? Geophys Res Lett 24:1059–1062. https://doi.org/10.1029/97GL00918
Hoerling MP, Kumar A (2002) Atmospheric response patterns associated with tropical forcing. J Clim 15:2184–2203. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015%3c2184:ARPAWT%3e2.0.CO;2
Horel JD, Wallace JM (1981) Planetary-scale atmospheric phenomena associated with the southern oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 109:813–829. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109%3c0813:PSAPAW%3e2.0.CO;2
Hoskins BJ, Karoly DJ (1981) The Steady linear response of a spherical atmosphere to thermal and orographic forcing. J Atmos Sci 38:1179–1196. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1981)038%3c1179:TSLROA%3e2.0.CO;2
Johnson NC, Krishnamurthy L, Wittenberg AT et al (2020) The impact of sea surface temperature biases on North American precipitation in a high-resolution climate model. J Clim 33:2427–2447. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0417.1
Kumar A, Chen M (2020) Understanding skill of seasonal mean precipitation prediction over California during Boreal Winter and role of predictability limits. J Climate 33:6141–6163. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0275.1
Kushnir Y, Seager R, Ting M et al (2010) Mechanisms of tropical Atlantic SST influence on North American precipitation variability. J Clim 23:5610–5628. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3172.1
Lau N-C, Nath MJ (1994) A modeling study of the relative roles of tropical and extratropical SST anomalies in the variability of the global atmosphere-ocean system. J Clim 7:1184–1207. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007%3c1184:AMSOTR%3e2.0.CO;2
Leathers DJ, Yarnal B, Palecki MA (1991) The Pacific/North American teleconnection pattern and United States Climate. Part I: regional temperature and precipitation associations. J Clim 4:517–528. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004%3c0517:TPATPA%3e2.0.CO;2
Linkin ME, Nigam S (2008) The North Pacific Oscillation-West Pacific teleconnection pattern: mature-phase structure and winter impacts. J Clim 21:1979–1997. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI2048.1
Liu AZ, Ting M, Wang H (1998) Maintenance of Circulation Anomalies during the 1988 Drought and 1993 Floods over the United States. J Atmos Sci 55:2810–2832. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1998)055%3c2810:MOCADT%3e2.0.CO;2
Liu Z, Tang Y, Jian Z et al (2017) Pacific North American circulation pattern links external forcing and North American hydroclimatic change over the past millennium. PNAS 114:3340–3345. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1618201114
Lyon B, Dole RM (1995) A diagnostic comparison of the 1980 and 1988 U.S. Summer Heat Wave Droughts J Clim 8:1658–1675. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008%3c1658:ADCOTA%3e2.0.CO;2
McCabe GJ, Palecki MA, Betancourt JL (2004) Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States. PNAS 101:4136–4141. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0306738101
Mejia JF, Koračin D, Wilcox EM (2018) Effect of coupled global climate models sea surface temperature biases on simulated climate of the western United States. Int J Climatol 38:5386–5404. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5817
North GR, Bell TL, Cahalan RF, Moeng FJ (1982) Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon Weather Rev 110:699–706. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110%3c0699:SEITEO%3e2.0.CO;2
Palmer TN (1993) Extended-range atmospheric prediction and the lorenz model. Bull Am Meteor Soc 74:49–65. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1993)074%3c0049:ERAPAT%3e2.0.CO;2
Palmer TN, Branković Č (1989) The 1988 US drought linked to anomalous sea surface temperature. Nature 338:54–57. https://doi.org/10.1038/338054a0
Palmer TN, Mansfield DA (1984) Response of two atmospheric general circulation models to sea-surface temperature anomalies in the tropical East and West Pacific. Nature 310:483–485. https://doi.org/10.1038/310483a0
Palmer TN, Mansfield DA (1986) A study of wintertime circulation anomalies during past El Niño events using a high resolution general circulation model. I: influence of model climatology. Q J R Meteorol Soc 112:613–638. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711247304
Pendergrass AG, Knutti R, Lehner F et al (2017) Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate. Sci Rep 7:1–9. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-17966-y
Rasmusson EM, Wallace JM (1983) Meterological aspects of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Sci New Ser 222:1195–1202
Rayner NA (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108:4407. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670
Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS (1986) North American precipitation and temperature patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Mon Weather Rev 114:2352–2362. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1986)114%3c2352:NAPATP%3e2.0.CO;2
Ruprich-Robert Y, Delworth T, Msadek R et al (2018) Impacts of the Atlantic multidecadal variability on North American summer climate and heat waves. J Clim 31:3679–3700. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0270.1
Ruprich-Robert Y, Msadek R, Castruccio F et al (2016) Assessing the climate impacts of the observed Atlantic Multidecadal variability using the GFDL CM2.1 and NCAR CESM1 global coupled models. J Clim 30:2785–2810. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0127.1
Saravanan R (1998) Atmospheric Low-frequency variability and its relationship to midlatitude SST variability: studies using the NCAR climate system model. J Clim 11:1386–1404. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011%3c1386:ALFVAI%3e2.0.CO;2
Schneider U, Becker A, Finger, Peter, et al (2011) GPCC full data reanalysis version 6.0 at 0.5°: monthly land-surface precipitation from rain-gauges built on GTS-based and historic data. https://doi.org/10.5676/DWD_GPCC/FD_M_V7_050
Schubert S, Gutzler D, Wang H et al (2009) A U.S. CLIVAR project to assess and compare the responses of global climate models to drought-related SST forcing patterns: overview and results. J Clim 22:5251–5272. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3060.1
Schubert SD, Suarez MJ, Pegion PJ et al (2004a) Causes of long-term drought in the U.S. Great Plains. J Clim 17:485–503. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017%3c0485:COLDIT%3e2.0.CO;2
Schubert SD, Suarez MJ, Pegion PJ et al (2004b) On the cause of the 1930s dust bowl. Science 303:1855–1859. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1095048
Seager R, Harnik N, Kushnir Y et al (2003) Mechanisms of hemispherically symmetric climate variability. J Clim 16:2960–2978. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016%3c2960:MOHSCV%3e2.0.CO;2
Seager R, Harnik N, Robinson WA et al (2005a) Mechanisms of ENSO-forcing of hemispherically symmetric precipitation variability. Q J R Meteorol Soc 131:1501–1527. https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.04.96
Seager R, Hoerling M (2014) Atmosphere and ocean origins of North American droughts. J Clim 27:4581–4606. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00329.1
Seager R, Kushnir Y, Herweijer C et al (2005b) Modeling of tropical forcing of persistent droughts and Pluvials over Western North America: 1856–2000. J Clim 18:4065–4088. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3522.1
Seager R, Naik N, Vogel L (2011) Does global warming cause intensified interannual hydroclimate variability? J Clim 25:3355–3372. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00363.1
Seager R, Ting M (2017) Decadal drought variability over North America: mechanisms and predictability. Curr Clim Change Rep. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-017-0062-1
Simmons AJ, Wallace JM, Branstator GW (1983) Barotropic wave propagation and instability, and atmospheric teleconnection patterns. J Atmos Sci 40:1363–1392. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1983)040%3c1363:BWPAIA%3e2.0.CO;2
Stevenson S, Timmermann A, Chikamoto Y et al (2014) Stochastically generated North American Megadroughts. J Clim 28:1865–1880. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00689.1
Straus DM, Shukla J (2000) Distinguishing between the SST-forced variability and internal variability in mid latitudes: analysis of observations and GCM simulations. Q J R Meteorol Soc 126:2323–2350. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712656716
Suarez MJ (1985) Chapter 43 A GCM study of the atmospheric response to tropical SST Anomalies. In: Nihoul JCJ (ed) Elsevier oceanography series. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp 749–764
Sutton RT, Hodson DLR (2005) Atlantic ocean forcing of North American and European Summer Climate. Science 309:115–118. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1109496
Sutton RT, Hodson DLR (2007) Climate response to basin-scale warming and cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean. J Clim 20:891–907. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4038.1
Trenberth KE, Branstator GW (1992) Issues in establishing causes of the 1988 drought over North America. J Clim 5:159–172. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1992)005%3c0159:IIECOT%3e2.0.CO;2
Trenberth KE, Branstator GW, Arkin PA (1988) Origins of the 1988 North American Drought. Science 242:1640–1645. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.242.4886.1640
Trenberth KE, Guillemot CJ (1996) Physical Processes Involved in the 1988 Drought and 1993 Floods in North America. J Clim 9:1288–1298. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009%3c1288:PPIITD%3e2.0.CO;2
Vecchi GA, T. DELWORTH, R. GUDGEL, et al (2014) On the seasonal forecasting of regional tropical cyclone activity. J Clim 27:7994–8016. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00158.1
Walker GT (1924) Correlation in seasonal variations of weather, IX. A further study of world weather. Mem Indian Meteor Dep 24:275–332
Wallace J, Gutzler D (1981) Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Mon Weather Rev 109:784–812
Wang C, Lee S-K, Enfield DB (2008) Climate response to anomalously large and small atlantic warm pools during the summer. J Clim 21:2437–2450. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI2029.1
Zhang H (2020) Tropical Pacific intensifies June extreme rainfall over Southwestern United States/Northwestern Mexico. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05291-6
Acknowledgements
This work is supported by NSF awards OCE-16-57209 and AGS-19-34363. Discussions with Tom Delworth are much appreciated. Comments from three anonymous reviewers help clarify some overlooked issues. GPCC Precipitation data and NOAA-CIRES-DOE Twentieth Century reanalysis products are provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/. All modeling data used here will be available upon request.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Appendix
Appendix
See Figs. 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22 and 23.
Biases of monthly precipitation climatology (mm/day) in FLOR compared to the 1980–2010 CRU and GPCC observations. Shown here is FLOR–CRU. Stippling is a measure of insignificance, indicating either CRU or GPCC climatology is inside the range of a synthetic 33-member FLOR ensemble, which is constructed by sampling the 1000-year FLOR simulation with a 30-year non-overlapping period
Biases in year-to-year standard deviation of monthly precipitation (mm/day) over North America in FLOR compared to the 1980–2010 CRU and GPCC observations. Stippling is a measure of insignificance, indicating either CRU or GPCC standard deviation is inside the range of a synthetic 33-member FLOR ensemble, which is constructed by sampling the 1000-year FLOR simulation with a 30-year non-overlapping period
Correlation of monthly surface temperature with monthly precipitation averaged over southwestern North America (19°–40° N, 125°–96° W, indicated by a red box in each panel) as a function of calendar months in FLOR. Gray stippling denotes that the correlation is not significant at 5% level (based on a two-sided student t test). Note that this figure has been published in Zhang (2020, Fig. 13)
Fractional change (%) in year-to-year standard deviation of monthly precipitation in Globe_1-12 relative to AM2.5, (Globe_1-12—AM2.5)/Globe_1-12*100%, as a function of calendar month. Gray stippling indicates changes are not significant at the 1% level based on a two-sided Fisher test
The same as Fig. 20 but for CWV in Globe_1-12
The same as Fig. 20 but for Tropic_1-12
The same as Fig. 22 but for CWV in Tropic_1-12
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Zhang, H., Seager, R., He, J. et al. Quantifying atmosphere and ocean origins of North American precipitation variability. Clim Dyn 56, 4051–4074 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05685-0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05685-0