Abstract
According to the latest version (version 2.0) of the China global Merged Surface Temperature (CMST2.0) dataset, the global mean surface temperature (GMST) in the first half of 2023 reached its third warmest value since the period of instrumental observation began, being only slightly lower than the values recorded in 2016 and 2020, and historically record-breaking GMST emerged from May to July 2023. Further analysis also indicates that if the surface temperature in the last five months of 2023 approaches the average level of the past five years, the annual average surface temperature anomaly in 2023 of approximately 1.26°C will break the previous highest surface temperature, which was recorded in 2016 of approximately 1.25°C (both values relative to the global pre-industrialization period, i.e., the average value from 1850 to 1900). With El Niño triggering a record-breaking hottest July, record-breaking average annual temperatures will most likely become a reality in 2023.
摘 要
基于中山大学团队研发的全球表面温度数据集的集合重建升级版本China global Merge Surface Temperature 2.0(CMST2.0),文章评估指出:2023年上半年的全球平均表面温度达到了有观测记录以来的第三高值,仅略低于2016年和2020年。值得一提的是,5月至7月连续突破当月历史最高温度。进一步分析表明,如果剩余五个月的平均温度达到近五年(2018-2022年)的同期水平,2023年相对于工业化以前(用1850年至1900年的平均值代替)的增暖将达1.26°C,可望打破2016年的迄今最高增暖幅度(1.25°C)。结合目前厄尔尼诺的持续发展态势及7月已经成为观测到的历史最热月份的事实,2023年高温破纪录的情况极有可能成为现实。
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The authors acknowledge support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41975105 and 42375022).
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Li, Z., Li, Q. & Chen, T. Record-breaking High-temperature Outlook for 2023: An Assessment Based on the China Global Merged Temperature (CMST) Dataset. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 41, 369–376 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3200-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3200-9