Abstract
In this paper, we investigate the influence of the winter NAO on the multidecadal variability of winter East Asian surface air temperature (EASAT) and EASAT decadal prediction. The observational analysis shows that the winter EASAT and East Asian minimum SAT (EAmSAT) display strong in-phase fluctuations and a significant 60–80-year multidecadal variability, apart from a long-term warming trend. The winter EASAT experienced a decreasing trend in the last two decades, which is consistent with the occurrence of extremely cold events in East Asia winters in recent years. The winter NAO leads the detrended winter EASAT by 12–18 years with the greatest significant positive correlation at the lead time of 15 years. Further analysis shows that ENSO may affect winter EASAT interannual variability, but does not affect the robust lead relationship between the winter NAO and EASAT. We present the coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge (COAB) mechanism of the NAO influences on winter EASAT multidecadal variability through its accumulated delayed effect of ∼15 years on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Africa–Asia multidecadal teleconnection (AAMT) pattern. An NAO-based linear model for predicting winter decadal EASAT is constructed on the principle of the COAB mechanism, with good hindcast performance. The winter EASAT for 2020–34 is predicted to keep on fluctuating downward until ∼2025, implying a high probability of occurrence of extremely cold events in coming winters in East Asia, followed by a sudden turn towards sharp warming. The predicted 2020/21 winter EASAT is almost the same as the 2019/20 winter.
摘要
本文研究了冬季北大西洋涛动 (NAO)对冬季东亚地面气温多年代际变率的影响, 并对冬季东亚地面气温做了年代际预测. 观测分析表明, 除了具有长期的增温趋势外, 冬季东亚地面气温和东亚最低气温表现出很强的同相波动和显著的60–80年的多年代际变率. 在过去20年, 冬季东亚地面气温呈下降趋势, 这为近年来东亚冬季极寒事件的发生提供了有利背景. 冬季NAO超前冬季东亚地面气温约12–18年, 在超前15年时正相关最大. 进一步分析表明, 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动 (ENSO) 对冬季东亚地面气温的年际变率有一定影响, 但不影响冬季NAO与东亚地面气温之间的超前关系. 我们提出了海气耦合桥 (COAB) 机制, 即NAO通过对大西洋多年代际振荡 (AMO) 和北非-东亚多年代际遥相关 (AAMT) 的累积延迟效应, 来影响冬季地面气温的多年代际变率. 基于COAB机制, 建立了以NAO为预报因子的冬季地面气温年代际预测模型, 该模型后报性能良好. 该预测模型显示, 在2020–34年, 冬季东亚地面气温将继续向下小幅波动直至2025年, 这意味着东亚未来发生冬季极寒事件的可能性很大, 然后, 将转向急剧变暖. 预测的2020/21年冬季地面气温与2019/20年冬季接近.
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Acknowledgements
This work was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) Project (Grant No. 41790474), Shandong Natural Science Foundation Project (Grant No. ZR2019ZD12), and Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. 201962009). The authors wish to thank the support from Center for High Performance Computing and System Simulation, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), and all data providers.
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Article Highlights
• Winter EASAT displays a significant 60–80-year multidecadal variability and experienced a decreasing trend in the last two decades.
• The winter NAO leads the detrended winter EASAT by 12–18 years, and the relationship is unaffected by ENSO.
• The coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge (COAB) mechanism of the NAO influences on winter EASAT multidecadal variability is proposed.
• An NAO-based model predicts the winter EASAT for 2020–34 keeps on fluctuating fall until ∼2025 and then turns towards sharp warming.
This paper is a contribution to the special issue on Extreme Cold Events from East Asia to North America in Winter 2020/21.
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Li, J., Xie, T., Tang, X. et al. Influence of the NAO on Wintertime Surface Air Temperature over East Asia: Multidecadal Variability and Decadal Prediction. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 39, 625–642 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1075-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1075-1
Key words
- winter East Asian surface air temperature
- North Atlantic Oscillation
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
- Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection pattern
- coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge
- multidecadal variability
关键词
- 冬季东亚地面气温
- 北大西洋涛动
- 大西洋多年代际振荡
- 北非-东亚多年代际遥相关
- 海气耦合桥
- 多年代际变率
- 年代际预测