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Contribution of Solar Irradiance Variations to Surface Air Temperature Trends at Different Latitudes Estimated from Long-term Data

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Abstract

Contributions of the insolation variations together with different natural and anthropogenic factors to the trends of the surface air temperatures at different latitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres on various temporal horizons are estimated from climate data since the nineteenth century with the use of empirical autoregressive models. As the natural climate variability modes, we take into account Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, El-Nino/Southern Oscillation, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Antarctic Oscillation. According to the obtained results, the contributions of the insolation variations to the trends of the surface air temperature are statistically insignificant on the time intervals under study, i.e. from a decade and longer. Taking into account the insolation variations in the autoregressive models weakly alters the estimates of the contributions of the greenhouse gases and natural variability modes to the temperature trends: the changes are not more than several per cent. Numerically, the estimated contributions of the insolation variations can considerably exceed the respective contributions of the natural variability modes both on short (less than two decades) and long (longer than a century) time intervals.

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Data availability statement

The data used for the analysis are available at (GISS, 2018; Huang et al., 2015; NCEI, 2022; PSL, 2022).

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Funding

This study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation project No. 19–17-00240. The results obtained within the framework of the RSF-NSFC project 23-47-00104 were also used

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 3 Pyzhevsky Per., 119017, Moscow, Russia

    Igor I. Mokhov & Dmitry A. Smirnov

  2. Department of Physics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Leninskie Gory, 119991, Moscow, Russia

    Igor I. Mokhov

  3. Saratov Branch, Kotelnikov Institute of Radioengineering and Electronics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 38 Zelyonaya Street, 410019, Saratov, Russia

    Dmitry A. Smirnov

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  1. Igor I. Mokhov
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Both authors contributed to the study design and data analysis. Both authors wrote the main manuscript text, reviewed the manuscript and approved the final manuscript.

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Mokhov, I.I., Smirnov, D.A. Contribution of Solar Irradiance Variations to Surface Air Temperature Trends at Different Latitudes Estimated from Long-term Data. Pure Appl. Geophys. 180, 3053–3070 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-023-03317-8

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