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Empirical Estimates of the Contribution of Greenhouse Gases and Natural Climatic Variability to Surface Air Temperature Trends for Various Latitudes

  • PHYSICS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND HYDROSPHERE
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Abstract

Quantitative estimates of the contribution of anthropogenic forcing, characterized by changes in the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and key modes of natural climatic variability to the surface temperature trends in different latitudinal zones of the Northern (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) for various time horizons have been obtained using observational data. In particular, using three-component autoregressive models and data since the 19th century, the role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the El-Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, and the Antarctic Oscillation in the formation of temperature trends was assessed. The results of the analysis indicate the significant role of changes in the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in the formation of the global surface air temperature trend, which increases with an increase in the time horizon. At the same time, significant differences were noted for the latitudinal zones of the SH and NH, associated with the influence of different modes of natural climatic variability. At weaker temperature trends in the SH latitudinal zones with greater ocean coverage than in the NH, negative trends in the surface air temperature on intervals of several decades against the general background of long-period global warming be and are manifested due to natural climate fluctuations. One of the key climatic problems of recent years is the mutually opposite trends in the extent of Antarctic and Arctic sea ice, which is associated with the noted global and regional features of the temperature variations.

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Funding

This work was supported by the Russian Science Foundation, project no. 19-17-00240, using the results on the peculiarities of climate variability in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, obtained under an agreement with the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation, Agreement no. 075-15-2020-776.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Federal State Institution of Science, Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 119017, Moscow, Russia

    I. I. Mokhov & D. A. Smirnov

  2. Moscow State University, 119991, Moscow, Russia

    I. I. Mokhov

  3. Saratov Branch, Institute of Radioengineering and Electronics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 410019, Saratov, Russia

    D. A. Smirnov

Authors
  1. I. I. Mokhov
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  2. D. A. Smirnov
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Correspondence to I. I. Mokhov or D. A. Smirnov.

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The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

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Translated by V. Selikhanovich

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Mokhov, I.I., Smirnov, D.A. Empirical Estimates of the Contribution of Greenhouse Gases and Natural Climatic Variability to Surface Air Temperature Trends for Various Latitudes. Dokl. Earth Sc. 503, 114–118 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X22030084

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X22030084

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