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Spatiotemporal Variability, Trend, and Change-Point of Precipitation Extremes and Their Contribution to the Total Precipitation in Iran

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Abstract

The present study analyzes the observed extreme precipitation based on the daily precipitation records of 49 ground stations across Iran from 1980 to 2019. The present study aims to investigate the frequency, intensity, and trend of precipitation extremes in different climate zones. We computed the new extreme precipitation indices (EPI) recommended by the Expert Team on Sector–Specific Climate Indices (ET-SCI) and used two nonparametric tests, the modified Mann–Kendall (MM–K) test and Sen slope estimator (SSE), to identify the trend magnitude. Also, we applied the Buishand test for detecting the potential change-point of EPIs in Iran. The results showed that the consecutive wet days (CWD) are decreasing at 73.47% of the stations in Iran. The annual sum of precipitation in wet days (PRCPTOT) index in 87.76% of Iran showed a decreasing trend, indicating severe drought conditions in Iran. The simple daily intensity index (SDII) in 71.42% (30.23% at the level of 0.05 significance) has an increasing trend. The heavy precipitation index (R10mm) showed a decreasing trend in all zones. The most frequent change-point of extreme precipitation occurred in 1997 and 1998 on Iran’s west, southeast, and southern coasts. Increasing the intensity of precipitation along with decreasing in precipitation frequency has caused the increased contribution of extreme precipitation to the total annual precipitation in Iran.

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Availability of Data and Material

Not applicable.

Code Availability

The R package used in this paper is available on github (https://github.com/ECCC-CDAS/RClimDex).

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Acknowledgements

Abbasali Dadashi-Roudbari was supported by a grant from Ferdowsi University of Mashhad (no. FUM 14002794075). We would like to thank the Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) for providing the necessary data and information.

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Vice Chancellor for Research of Ferdowsi University of Mashhad.

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  1. Department of Geography, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Room 32, Azadi Square, Mashhad, Iran

    Azar Zarrin & Abbasali Dadashi-Roudbari

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Conceived and designed the analysis: Azar Zarrin and Abbasali Dadashi-Roudbari. Collected the data: Azar Zarrin and Abbasali Dadashi-Roudbari. Contributed data or analysis tools: Azar Zarrin and Abbasali Dadashi-Roudbari. Performed the analysis: Azar Zarrin and Abbasali Dadashi-Roudbari. Wrote the paper: Azar Zarrin and Abbasali Dadashi-Roudbari. Writing—review and editing: Azar Zarrin and Abbasali Dadashi-Roudbari.

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Zarrin, A., Dadashi-Roudbari, A. Spatiotemporal Variability, Trend, and Change-Point of Precipitation Extremes and Their Contribution to the Total Precipitation in Iran. Pure Appl. Geophys. 179, 2923–2944 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-022-03098-6

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