Abstract
Although a significant number of studies have evaluated the trends in different characteristics of precipitation in Iran, the trends in precipitation indicators related to bioclimate are still not explored. The 0.5° spatial resolution gauge-based gridded monthly precipitation data of global precipitation climatology centre (GPCC) for the period 1901–2016 was used in this study for the evaluation of the geographical distribution of the trends of bioclimatic precipitation indicators of Iran. The trends in the indicators due to global warming were estimated using modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) trend test which can estimate unidirectional trend by separating the natural variability in climate. Obtained results were compared with that found using classical Mann-Kendall (MK) test. Besides, gridded temperature data of climate research unit (CRU) was used to identify the warm/cold periods at each grid point to assess the trends in precipitation during warm/cold periods, considering a wide spatial variation in the onset time of different seasons in Iran. The results revealed that many of the trends in some of the precipitation indicators obtained in earlier studies were due to natural fluctuation of climate. Annual precipitation in Iran was found decreasing only in the northwest semi-arid region at a rate of − 12.1 to − 14.05 mm/decade, while the precipitation in the wettest month was found increasing in a large area in the southwest semi-arid region at a rate of 3.1 to 5.3 mm/decade. The most significant changes were observed in precipitation seasonality, which was found to increase in 22.4% area, mostly in the central dry and northeast semi-dry regions and decrease in 11.3% area, mostly in the northern wetter region. The study indicates that the long-term natural variability in large-scale atmospheric phenomena that influences the precipitation of Iran may be the cause of many significant changes observed in precipitation in previous studies.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abghari H, Tabari H, Hosseinzadeh Talaee P (2013) River flow trends in the west of Iran during the past 40years: impact of precipitation variability. Glob Planet Chang 101:52–60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.12.003
Abolverdi J, Ferdosifar G, Khalili D, Kamgar-Haghighi AA, Abdolahipour Haghighi M (2014) Recent trends in regional air temperature and precipitation and links to global climate change in the Maharlo watershed, Southwestern Iran. Meteorog Atmos Phys 126:177–192. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-014-0341-5
Ahmed K, Shahid S, ES C, Ismail T, J WX (2017a) Spatial distribution of secular trends in annual and seasonal precipitation over Pakistan. Clim Res 74:95–107. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01489
Ahmed K, Shahid S, Nawaz N (2018) Impacts of climate variability and change on seasonal drought characteristics of Pakistan. Atmos Res 214:364–374. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.08.020
Ahmed K, Shahid S, Othman Ali R, Bin Harun S, Wang X (2017b) Evaluation of the performance of gridded precipitation products over Balochistan Province, Pakistan. Desalin Water Treat 79:73–86. https://doi.org/10.5004/dwt.2017.20859
Ahmed K, Shahid S, Wang X, Nawaz N, Khan N (2019) Evaluation of gridded precipitation datasets over arid regions of Pakistan. Water 11:210. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11020210
Alexander LV (2016) Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: a review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond. Weather Clim Extrem 11:4–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.10.007
Alizadeh-Choobari O, Najafi MS (2018) Climate variability in Iran in response to the diversity of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Int J Climatol 38:4239–4250. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5564
Alizadeh-Choobari O, Najafi MS (2017) Trends and changes in air temperature and precipitation over different regions of Iran. J Earth Sp Phys 43:569–584
Araghi A, Adamowski J, Jaghargh MR (2016) Detection of trends in days with thunderstorms in Iran over the past five decades. Atmos Res 172–173:174–185. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.12.022
Asakereh H (2017) Trends in monthly precipitation over the northwest of Iran (NWI). Theor Appl Climatol 130:443–451. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1893-8
Balling RC, Keikhosravi Kiany MS, Sen Roy S, Khoshhal J (2016) Trends in extreme precipitation indices in Iran: 1951-2007. Adv Meteorol 2016:1–8. https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/2456809
Batisani N, Yarnal B (2010) Rainfall variability and trends in semi-arid Botswana: implications for climate change adaptation policy. Appl Geogr 30:483–489. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2009.10.007
Black E, Brayshaw DJ, Rambeau CMC (2010) Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations. Philos Trans R Soc A Math Phys Eng Sci 368:5173–5184. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0199
Dhorde AG, Zarenistanak M, Kripalani RH, Preethi B (2014) Precipitation analysis over southwest Iran: trends and projections. Meteorog Atmos Phys 124:205–216. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-014-0313-9
El Kenawy AM, Mccabe MF (2016) A multi-decadal assessment of the performance of gauge- and model-based rainfall products over Saudi Arabia: climatology, anomalies and trends. Int J Climatol 36:656–674. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4374
Farajzadeh J, Fakheri Fard A, Lotfi S (2014) Modeling of monthly rainfall and runoff of Urmia lake basin using “feed-forward neural network” and “time series analysis” model. Water Resour Ind 7–8:38–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wri.2014.10.003
Farashi A, Shariati M (2017) Biodiversity hotspots and conservation gaps in Iran. J Nat Conserv 39:37–57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnc.2017.06.003
Fathian F, Dehghan Z, Bazrkar MH, Eslamian S (2016) Trends in hydrological and climatic variables affected by four variations of the Mann-Kendall approach in Urmia Lake basin, Iran. Hydrol Sci J 61:892–904. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.932911
Ghalhari GF, Roudbari AD, Asadi M (2016) Identifying the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of precipitation in Iran. Arab J Geosci 9:1–12. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-016-2606-4
Ghanghermeh A, Roshan GR, Al-Yahyai S (2015) The influence of Atlantic-Eurasian teleconnection patterns on temperature regimes in South Caspian Sea coastal areas: a study of Golestan Province, North Iran. Pollution 1:67–83
Ghanimatdan M, Chalechale A, Rezaei F, Rokni MB, Shahrokhi SR (2019) Bioclimatic analysis and spatial distribution of livestock Fascioliasis in Iran. Iran J Parasitol 14. https://doi.org/10.18502/ijpa.v14i1.716
Gonçalves GSR, Cerqueira PV, Brasil LS, Santos MPD (2017) The role of climate and environmental variables in structuring bird assemblages in the seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs). PLoS One 12:e0176066
Goswami BN, Kripalani RH, Borgaonkar HP, Preethi B (2015) Multi-decadal variability in Indian summer monsoon rainfall using proxy data, in: Climate change: multidecadal and beyond, world scientific series on Asia-Pacific weather and climate. Word Sci:327–345. https://doi.org/10.1142/9789814579933_0021
Hamed KH (2008) Trend detection in hydrologic data: the Mann–Kendall trend test under the scaling hypothesis. J Hydrol 349:350–363. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2007.11.009
Hamed KH, Rao AR (1998) A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. J Hydrol 204:182–196. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00125-X
Hu X-G, Jin Y, Wang X-R, Mao J-F, Li Y (2015) Predicting impacts of future climate change on the distribution of the widespread conifer Platycladus orientalis. PLoS One 10:e0132326
IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. In: Team CW, Pachauri RK, Meyer LA (eds) . IPCC, Geneva
Iqbal Z, Shahid S, Ahmed K, Ismail T, Nawaz N (2019) Spatial distribution of the trends in precipitation and precipitation extremes in the sub-Himalayan region of Pakistan. Theor Appl Climatol 137:2755–2769. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02773-4
Javanmard S, Yatagai A, Nodzu MI, BodaghJamali J, Kawamoto H (2010) Comparing high-resolution gridded precipitation data with satellite rainfall estimates of TRMM_3B42 over Iran. Adv Geosci 25:119–125. https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-25-119-2010
Javari M (2017) Spatial variability of rainfall trends in Iran. Arab J Geosci 10:78–39. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-017-2857-8
Javari M (2016) Trend and homogeneity analysis of precipitation in Iran. Climate 4. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli4030044
Javari M (2001) Climate changes of temperature and precipitation in Iran. PhD Thesis,Tehran University
Jones MC, Dye SR, Fernandes JA, Frölicher TL, Pinnegar JK, Warren R, Cheung WWL (2013) Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters. PLoS One 8:e54216
Katiraie-Boroujerdy P-S, Nasrollahi N, Hsu K-L, Sorooshian S (2016) Quantifying the reliability of four global datasets for drought monitoring over a semiarid region. Theor Appl Climatol 123:387–398. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1360-3
Kendall M (1948) Rank correlation methods. Griffin, Oxford
Khan N, Pour SH, Shahid S, Ismail T, Ahmed K, Chung E-S, Nawaz N, Wang X (2019a) Spatial distribution of secular trends in rainfall indices of Peninsular Malaysia in the presence of long-term persistence. Meteorol Appl 26:655–670. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1792
Khan N, Shahid S, Ahmed K, Ismail T, Nawaz N, Son M (2018) Performance assessment of general circulation model in simulating daily precipitation and temperature using multiple gridded datasets. Water:10. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10121793
Khan N, Shahid S, Ismail, Bin T, Wang X-J (2019b) Spatial distribution of unidirectional trends in temperature and temperature extremes in Pakistan. Theor Appl Climatol 136:899–913. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2520-7
Kim Y, Chung E-S (2012) Integrated assessment of climate change and urbanization impact on adaptation strategies: a case study in two small Korean watersheds. Clim Chang 115:853–872. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0612-4
Kousari MR, Ekhtesasi MR, Tazeh M, Naeini MAS, Zarch MAA (2011) An investigation of the Iranian climatic changes by considering the precipitation, temperature, and relative humidity parameters. Theor Appl Climatol 103:321–335. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0304-9
Koutsoyiannis D (2003) Climate change, the Hurst phenomenon, and hydrological statistics. Hydrol Sci J 48:3–24. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.48.1.3.43481
Koutsoyiannis D, Montanari A (2007) Statistical analysis of hydroclimatic time series: uncertainty and insights. Water Resour Res 43. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006WR005592
Li J, Wang JXL (2003) A new North Atlantic Oscillation index and its variability. Adv Atmos Sci 20:661–676. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02915394
Maghsood FF, Hashemi H, Hosseini SH, Berndtsson R (2020) Ground validation of GPM IMERG precipitation products over Iran. Remote Sens 12:48. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12010048
Malik A, Kumar A (2020) Spatio-temporal trend analysis of rainfall using parametric and non-parametric tests: case study in Uttarakhand, India. Theor Appl Climatol:1–25. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-03080-8
Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187
Masih I, Uhlenbrook S, Maskey S, Smakhtin V (2011) Streamflow trends and climate linkages in the Zagros Mountains, Iran. Clim Chang 104:317–338. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9793-x
Mianabadi A, Shirazi P, Ghahraman B, Coenders-Gerrits AMJ, Alizadeh A, Davary K (2019) Assessment of short- and long-term memory in trends of major climatic variables over Iran: 1966–2015. Theor Appl Climatol 135:677–691. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2410-z
Minaei M, Irannezhad M (2018) Spatio-temporal trend analysis of precipitation, temperature, and river discharge in the northeast of Iran in recent decades. Theor Appl Climatol 131:167–179. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1963-y
Modarres R (2007) Streamflow drought time series forecasting. Stoch Env Res Risk A 21:223–233. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-006-0058-1
Modarres R, Sarhadi A (2009) Rainfall trends analysis of Iran in the last half of the twentieth century. J Geophys Res Atmos 114. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010707
Najafi MR, Moazami S (2016) Trends in total precipitation and magnitude-frequency of extreme precipitation in Iran, 1969-2009. Int J Climatol 36:1863–1872. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4465
Nashwan MS, Shahid S (2019) Spatial distribution of unidirectional trends in climate and weather extremes in Nile river basin. Theor Appl Climatol 137:1181–1199. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2664-5
Nashwan MS, Shahid S, Abd Rahim N (2019a) Unidirectional trends in annual and seasonal climate and extremes in Egypt. Theor Appl Climatol 136–457:457–473. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2498-1
Nashwan MS, Shahid S, Wang X (2019b) Uncertainty in estimated trends using gridded rainfall data: a case study of Bangladesh. Water 11:349. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11020349
Nashwan SM, Shahid S, Chung E-S, Ahmed K, Song HY (2018) Development of climate-based index for hydrologic hazard susceptibility. Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10072182
Nasri M, Modarres R (2009) Dry spell trend analysis of Isfahan Province, Iran. Int J Climatol 29:1430–1438. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1805
Nazemosadat M, Cordery I (2000) The impact of ENSO on winter rainfall in Iran. In: Hydro 2000: Interactive Hydrology; Proceedings, p 538
Nazemosadat MJ (1999) The impact of ENSO on autumn rainfall in Iran. Drought News Netw 11:15–19
Nazemosadat MJ, Ghasemi AR (2004) Quantifying the ENSO-related shifts in the intensity and probability of drought and wet periods in Iran. J Clim 17:4005–4018. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<4005:QTESIT>2.0.CO;2
Nazeri Tahroudi M, Ramezani Y, Ahmadi F (2019) Investigating the trend and time of precipitation and river flow rate changes in Lake Urmia basin, Iran. Arab J Geosci 12:219–213. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-019-4373-5
Noroozi J, Talebi A, Doostmohammadi M, Rumpf SB, Linder HP, Schneeweiss GM (2018) Hotspots within a global biodiversity hotspot-areas of endemism are associated with high mountain ranges. Sci Rep 8:1–10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-28504-9
O’Donnell MS, Ignizio DA (2012) Bioclimatic predictors for supporting ecological applications in the conterminous United States. US Geol Surv Data Ser. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mimet.2011.04.001
Pour SH, Abd Wahab KA, Shahid S, Wang X (2019) Spatial pattern of the unidirectional trends in thermal bioclimatic indicators in Iran. Sustainability 11. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11082287
Pour SH, Wahab AKA, Shahid S (2020) Spatiotemporal changes in aridity and the shift of drylands in Iran. Atmos Res 233:104704. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104704
Raziei T (2018) An analysis of daily and monthly precipitation seasonality and regimes in Iran and the associated changes in 1951–2014. Theor Appl Climatol 134:913–934. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2317-0
Raziei T, Bordi I, Pereira LS (2011) An application of GPCC and NCEP/NCAR datasets for drought variability analysis in Iran. Water Resour Manag 25:1075–1086. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-010-9657-1
Raziei T, Daryabari J, Bordi I, Modarres R, Pereira LS (2014a) Spatial patterns and temporal trends of daily precipitation indices in Iran. Clim Chang 124:239–253. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1096-1
Raziei T, Daryabari J, Bordi I, Pereira LS (2014b) Spatial patterns and temporal trends of precipitation in Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 115:531–540. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0919-8
Roushangar K, Alizadeh F, Adamowski J (2018) Exploring the effects of climatic variables on monthly precipitation variation using a continuous wavelet-based multiscale entropy approach. Environ Res 165:176–192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2018.04.017
Salman SA, Shahid S, Ismail T, Al-Abadi AM, Wang X, Chung E-S (2019) Selection of gridded precipitation data for Iraq using compromise programming. Measurement 132:87–98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.measurement.2018.09.047
Salman SA, Shahid S, Ismail T, Rahman N, Bin A, Wang X, Chung ES (2018) Unidirectional trends in daily rainfall extremes of Iraq. Theor Appl Climatol 134:1165–1177. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2336-x
Sarmadi F, Shokoohi A (2015) Regionalizing precipitation in Iran using GPCC gridded data via multivariate analysis and L-moment methods. Theor Appl Climatol 122:121–128. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1292-y
Schneider U, Becker A, Finger P, Meyer-Christoffer A, Ziese M, Rudolf B (2014) GPCC’s new land surface precipitation climatology based on quality-controlled in situ data and its role in quantifying the global water cycle. Theor Appl Climatol 115:15–40. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0860-x
Shahid S (2010) Recent trends in the climate of Bangladesh. Clim Res 42:185–193. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00889
Shahid S, Nath SK, Maksud Kamal ASM (2002) GIS integration of remote sensing and topographic data using fuzzy logic for ground water assessment in Midnapur District, India. Geocarto Int 17:69–74. https://doi.org/10.1080/10106040208542246
Shahid S, Pour SH, Wang X, Shourav SA, Minhans A, Ismail TB (2017) Impacts and adaptation to climate change in Malaysian real estate. Int J Clim Chang Strateg Manag 9. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-01-2016-0001
Shahid S, Wang XJ, Harun SB, Shamsudin SB, Ismail T, Minhans A (2016) Climate variability and changes in the major cities of Bangladesh: observations, possible impacts and adaptation. Reg Environ Chang 16:459–471. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0757-6
Sharifi E, Steinacker R, Saghafian B (2016) Assessment of GPM-IMERG and other precipitation products against gauge data under different topographic and climatic conditions in Iran: preliminary results. Remote Sens 8:135. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs8020135
Sheikh Z, Yazdani MR, Moghaddam Nia A (2020) Spatiotemporal changes of 7-day low flow in Iran’s Namak Lake Basin: impacts of climatic and human factors. Theor Appl Climatol 139:57–73. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02959-w
Shiru MS, Shahid S, Chung E-S, Alias N (2019) Changing characteristics of meteorological droughts in Nigeria during 1901–2010. Atmos Res 223:60–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.03.010
Sintayehu DW (2018) Impact of climate change on biodiversity and associated key ecosystem services in Africa: a systematic review. Ecosyst Heal Sustain 4:225–239. https://doi.org/10.1080/20964129.2018.1530054
Soltani M, Laux P, Kunstmann H, Stan K, Sohrabi MM, Molanejad M, Sabziparvar AA, Ranjbar SaadatAbadi A, Ranjbar F, Rousta I, Zawar-Reza P, Khoshakhlagh F, Soltanzadeh I, Babu CA, Azizi GH, Martin MV (2016) Assessment of climate variations in temperature and precipitation extreme events over Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 126:775–795. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1609-5
Some’e BS, Ezani A, Tabari H (2012) Spatiotemporal trends and change point of precipitation in Iran. Atmos Res 113:1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.04.016
Tabari H, AghaKouchak A, Willems P (2014) A perturbation approach for assessing trends in precipitation extremes across Iran. J Hydrol 519:1420–1427. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.09.019
Tabari H, Somee BS, Zadeh MR (2011) Testing for long-term trends in climatic variables in Iran. Atmos Res 100:132–140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.01.005
von Storch H, Navarra A (1995) Analysis of climate Variability:: Applications of Statistical Techniques. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-03167-4
Walsh RPD, Lawler DM (1981) Rainfall seasonality: description, spatial patterns and change through time. Weather 36:201–208. https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1981.tb05400.x
Wang X, Zhang J, Shahid S, Guan E, Wu Y, Gao J, He R (2016) Adaptation to climate change impacts on water demand. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 21:81–99. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-014-9571-6
Wang X, Zhang J, Wang J, He R, Amged E, Liu J, Wang X, David K, Shamsuddin S (2014) Climate change and water resources management in Tuwei river basin of Northwest China. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 19:107–120. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-012-9430-2
WMO (2004) WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 2003. WMO- No 966
Yue S, Pilon P, Cavadias G (2002) Power of the Mann–Kendall and Spearman’s rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series. J Hydrol 259:254–271. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00594-7
Yue S, Wang C (2004) The Mann-Kendall test modified by effective sample size to detect trend in serially correlated hydrological series. Water Resour Manag 18:201–218. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:WARM.0000043140.61082.60
Zarei AR, Eslamian S (2016) Trend assessment of precipitation and drought index (SPI) using parametric and non-parametric trend analysis methods (case study: arid regions of southern Iran). Int J Hydrol Sci Technol 7:12–38. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJHST.2017.080957
Zarenistanak M (2018) Historical trend analysis and future projections of precipitation from CMIP5 models in the Alborz mountain area, Iran. Meteorog Atmos Phys 1–22:1259–1280. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-018-0636-z
Funding
The Universiti Teknologi Malaysia provided financial support for this research through Post-Doctoral Fellowship Scheme of the Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Grant Number Q.J130000.21A2.04E38.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Pour, S.H., Wahab, A.K.A. & Shahid, S. Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation indicators related to bioclimate in Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 141, 99–115 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03192-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03192-6