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Stochastic Source Modelling and Tsunami Hazard Analysis of the 2012 Mw7.8 Haida Gwaii Earthquake

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Abstract

The 2012 Mw7.8 Haida Gwaii earthquake triggered a tsunami that highlighted the importance of tsunami hazard assessments along Canada’s Pacific coast. Stochastic source modelling offers a valuable method to assess future tsunami hazard and has not been previously performed for this region. The stochastic source models characterize the variability of earthquake ruptures by accounting for uncertain fault geometry and slip heterogeneity, allowing the consideration a wide range of possible tsunami scenarios. The model predictions are constrained by observational data and past source inversion studies. A total of 1500 stochastic tsunami models are generated using the stochastic source modelling method to assess tsunami hazard via Monte Carlo tsunami simulations of the target region and conduct sensitivity analyses of tsunami height variability. 500 stochastic models are synthesized by reflecting the key features of the observed tsunami wave profiles as well as ground deformations during the 2012 event, whereas 1,000 stochastic models are generated to represent future potential rupture scenarios of Mw7.7 to Mw8.1 in the Haida Gwaii region. The comparison of the offshore tsunami data based on the 2012 observations and the stochastic tsunami simulations matched reasonably well, while the comparison of the run-up measurements with the simulation results showed that the latter is generally smaller than the former. To improve the tsunami simulation, accurate bathymetry and elevation data are necessary. Since the prospective evaluations of regional tsunami hazards using the stochastic source models capture both moderate and extreme tsunami hazard scenarios, the developed models can be used to perform future probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis in this region to promote better-informed risk management decisions.

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Fig. 1
Fig. 2

source models for the 2012 Haida Gwaii earthquake: a Shao and Ji (2012), b Wei (2012), c Lay et al. (2013), d Fine et al. (2015), e Gusman et al. (2016), and f Hayes (2017). The reported rake parameters are the representative values

Fig. 3

source parameters based on the existing source models for the 2012 Haida Gwaii earthquake and simulated parameters for the refined 2012 Mw7.8 stochastic source models with scaling relationships by Goda et al. (2016): a length, b along-strike correlation length, c mean slip, d width, e along-dip correlation length, and f maximum slip. The existing source models are shown in Fig. 2

Fig. 4

source models for the 2012 Haida Gwaii earthquake. The observed deformation data are also shown in Fig. 1. The six source models are shown in Fig. 2

Fig. 5
Fig. 6

source models for the refined 2012 Mw7.8 scenario, d average source model for the refined 2012 Mw7.8 scenario, e average source model for the prospective Mw7.7–7.9 scenario, and f average source model for the prospective Mw7.9–8.1 scenario

Fig. 7
Fig. 8

source models, and b comparison of observed and simulated wave profiles at the Queen Charlotte station. For (b), the observed wave is processed in the same way as mentioned in Sect. 2.1, whereas the simulated tsunami wave profiles have temporal resolution of 1 s

Fig. 9

source models for the refined 2012 Mw7.8 scenario and based on the Gusman et al. (2016) source model: a Henslung Cove, b DART 46,419, c Barkley Canyon, and d La Push. The simulated tsunami wave profiles have temporal resolution of 1 s

Fig. 10

source models (286, 350, and 369; a, b, and d, respectively) and based on the Gusman et al. (2016) source model (e), (c) observed run-up heights, and (f) maximum wave height along the Haida Gwaii coast for the top 20 refined 2012 Mw7.8 stochastic source models and the Gusman et al. (2016) source model. The earthquake slip distributions of the three stochastic models for the results displayed in (a), (b), and (d) are shown in Fig. 6a–c. The wave height is defined with respect to the mean sea level

Fig. 11

source models: a, b source models 286, c, d source model 350, and e, f source model 369. The water depths at P1, P2, and P3 are 9.4 m, 9.0 m, and 15.0 m, respectively. For b, d, f), the simulated tsunami wave profiles have temporal resolution of 0.1 s

Fig. 12

source models and b 500 Mw7.9–8.1 source models. The median, 10th, and 90th percentiles of the simulated maximum wave heights are shown in red (solid and broken curves)

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Funding

The work is funded by the Canada Research Chair program (950-232015) and the NSERC Discovery Grant (RGPIN-2019-05898). The authors are grateful to two anonymous reviewers who provided detailed comments and suggestions to improve the original version of the manuscript.

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  1. Department of Earth Sciences, Western University, London, ON, Canada

    Katsuichiro Goda & Karina Martínez Alcala

  2. Department of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, Western University, London, ON, Canada

    Katsuichiro Goda

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  1. Katsuichiro Goda
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Correspondence to Katsuichiro Goda.

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Goda, K., Martínez Alcala, K. Stochastic Source Modelling and Tsunami Hazard Analysis of the 2012 Mw7.8 Haida Gwaii Earthquake. Pure Appl. Geophys. 180, 1599–1621 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-022-03061-5

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