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Tsunami hazard assessment of Canada

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Abstract

We present a preliminary probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment of Canadian coastlines from local and far-field, earthquake, and large submarine landslide sources. Analyses involve published historical, palaeotsunami and palaeoseismic data, modelling, and empirical relations between fault area, earthquake magnitude, and tsunami run-up. The cumulative estimated tsunami hazard for potentially damaging run-up (≥1.5 m) of the outer Pacific coastline is ~40–80 % in 50 years, respectively one and two orders of magnitude greater than the outer Atlantic (~1–15 %) and the Arctic (<1 %). For larger run-up with significant damage potential (≥3 m), Pacific hazard is ~10–30 % in 50 years, again much larger than both the Atlantic (~1–5 %) and Arctic (<1 %). For outer Pacific coastlines, the ≥1.5 m run-up hazard is dominated by far-field subduction zones, but the probability of run-up ≥3 m is highest for local megathrust sources, particularly the Cascadia subduction zone; thrust sources further north are also significant, as illustrated by the 2012 Haida Gwaii event. For Juan de Fuca and Georgia Straits, the Cascadia megathrust dominates the hazard at both levels. Tsunami hazard on the Atlantic coastline is dominated by poorly constrained far-field subduction sources; a lesser hazard is posed by near-field continental slope failures similar to the 1929 Grand Banks event. Tsunami hazard on the Arctic coastline is poorly constrained, but is likely dominated by continental slope failures; a hypothetical earthquake source beneath the Mackenzie delta requires further study. We highlight areas susceptible to locally damaging landslide-generated tsunamis, but do not quantify the hazard.

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Acknowledgments

We acknowledge helpful discussions and input from John Adams, Jan Bednarski, Calvin Campbell, Josef Cherniawsky, Scott Dallimore, Isaac Fine, Phil Hill, Sabine Hippchen, Roy Hyndman, Carmel Lowe, Brian MacLean, David Mazzucchi, David Mosher, David Piper, Alexander Rabinovich, Alan Ruffman, Franck Saint-Ange, Fred Stephenson, and Kelin Wang. The manuscript was improved by useful comments from three anonymous reviewers. Several figures were prepared with the aid of GMT software (Wessel and Smith 1995). This is Earth Sciences Sector contribution 20130130.

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  1. Lucinda J. Leonard

    Present address: School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, PO Box 1700 Station CSC, Victoria, BC, V8W 2Y2, Canada

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Geological Survey of Canada, Natural Resources Canada, 9860 West Saanich Road, P.O. Box 6000, Sidney, BC, V8L 4B2, Canada

    Lucinda J. Leonard & Garry C. Rogers

  2. Geosciences Montpellier, UMR 5243, Université Montpellier 2, Montpellier, France

    Stéphane Mazzotti

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Leonard, L.J., Rogers, G.C. & Mazzotti, S. Tsunami hazard assessment of Canada. Nat Hazards 70, 237–274 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0809-5

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