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Future Climate Change Scenario over Maharashtra, Western India: Implications of the Regional Climate Model (REMO-2009) for the Understanding of Agricultural Vulnerability

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Abstract

The present investigation attempts to understand the near-term (up to 2050) and distant (up to 2100) future climatic changes over Maharashtra. Trend analysis of projected monsoon rainfall and temperature was carried out with the use of parametric and non-parametric statistical techniques. All the meteorological sub-divisions in Maharashtra reveal a significant increase in monsoon rainfall during 2015–2100 (by 150–210 mm), except Konkan. In a near-term future, parts of the Vidarbha Sub-division and Western Ghats exhibit a significant increase in rainfall by 82–225 mm. Almost the entire state is very likely to experience a rise in annual mean temperature (AMT) by 0.5–2.5 °C up to 2050. The state is very likely to experience considerably warmer conditions post-2033. In particular, parts of Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra Sub-divisions will register significant warming (by 1–2.5 °C). The estimations also signify a marginal increase in AMT during the post-2070 period. The annual maximum temperature (AMXT) does not show a considerable rise; however, the annual minimum temperature (AMNT) is expected to increase (by < 1.2 °C) significantly over about 80% of the districts in Maharashtra. These climatic changes are very likely to affect the productivity of principal crops in Maharashtra including sorghum, pearl millet, sugarcane, wheat, rice and cotton. Under the future climate change scenario, therefore, it will be a great challenge for agronomist and policymakers to formulate a judicial plan for sustainable agriculture.

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Acknowledgements

The author would like to express his sincere gratitude to Mr. Sudhir Sabade (Ret. Scientist), Mr. Sandip Ingle (Project Scientist C), Dr. Koteswara Rao (Project Scientist C) and the Director, IITM, for their valuable support and guidance to carry out the present work. The author thanks Mr. Nitin Atkare for his assistance in carrying out the statistical analysis. The author is also grateful to the anonymous reviewers for their comments and suggestions which helped in improving this manuscript. The World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Regional Climate and the Working Group on Coupled Modelling former coordinating body of CORDEX and responsible panel for CMIP5 are gratefully acknowledged. The climate modelling groups are sincerely thanked for producing and making available their model output. The authors thank the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) infrastructure and the Climate Data Portal hosted at the Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) and Indian Meteorology Department (IMD) for providing CORDEX South Asia data and observed data.

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  1. Department of Geography, Vidya Pratishthan’s ASC College, Baramati, 413 133, India

    Rahul S. Todmal

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Todmal, R.S. Future Climate Change Scenario over Maharashtra, Western India: Implications of the Regional Climate Model (REMO-2009) for the Understanding of Agricultural Vulnerability. Pure Appl. Geophys. 178, 155–168 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-020-02642-6

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