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Seismic Hazard Evaluation in Western Turkey as Revealed by Stress Transfer and Time-dependent Probability Calculations

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Abstract

Western Turkey has a long history of destructive earthquakes that are responsible for the death of thousands of people and which caused devastating damage to the existing infrastructures, and cultural and historical monuments. The recent earthquakes of Izmit (Kocaeli) on 17 August, 1999 (M w  = 7.4) and Düzce (M w  = 7.2) on 12 November, 1999, which occurred in the neighboring fault segments along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), were catastrophic ones for the Marmara region and surroundings in NW Turkey. Stress transfer between the two adjacent fault segments successfully explained the temporal proximity of these events. Similar evidence is also provided from recent studies dealing with successive strong events occurrence along the NAF and parts of the Aegean Sea; in that changes in the stress field due to the coseismic displacement of the stronger events influence the occurrence of the next events of comparable size by advancing their occurrence time and delimiting their occurrence place. In the present study the evolution of the stress field since the beginning of the twentieth century in the territory of the eastern Aegean Sea and western Turkey is examined, in an attempt to test whether the history of cumulative changes in stress can explain the spatial and temporal occurrence patterns of large earthquakes in this area. Coulomb stress changes are calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in elastic half space, taking into account both the coseismic slip in large (M ≥ 6.5) earthquakes and the slow tectonic stress buildup along the major fault segments. The stress change calculations were performed for strike-slip and normal faults. In each stage of the evolutionary model the stress field is calculated according to the strike, dip, and rake angles of the next large event, whose triggering is inspected, and the possible sites for future strong earthquakes can be assessed. A new insight on the evaluation of future seismic hazards is given by translating the calculated stress changes into earthquake probability using an earthquake nucleation constitutive relation, which includes permanent and transient effects of the sudden stress changes.

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Acknowledgments

The paper greatly benefited from insightful comments of two anonymous reviewers and the editorial assistance of Martha Savage. The stress tensors were calculated using a program written by J. Deng (Deng and Sykes, 1997), based on the DIS3D code of S. Dunbar, which later improved (Erikson, 1986) and the expressions of G. Converse. Paradisopoulou P. M. wishes to express her sincere and profound thanks to Professor Stanislaw Lasocki and Assistant Professors Janusz Mirek and Beata Orlecka–Sikora from the Faculty of Geology, Geophysics and Environmental Protection, AGH University of Science and Technology, Krakow Poland, for many useful suggestions, ideas and assistance for the preparation of the useful application for our calculations. Part of this undertaking entailed a 2-month visit of the first author to AGH University in the frame of PENED grand. Critical reading of the manuscript by Rodolfo Console, from Istituto Nazionale Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma, Italy, is greatly appreciated. The GMT system (Wessel and Smith, 1998) was used to plot the figures. The first author is a grantee of the 03ED375 research project implemented within the framework of the “Reinforcement Programme of Human Research Manpower” (PENED) and co-financed by the National and Community Funds (25% from the Greek Ministry of Development-General Secretariat of Research and Technology and 75% from E.U.-European Social Fund) (Grant No. 03EΔ815 61585 23-09-05). Geophysics Department contribution 742.

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  1. Department of Geophysics, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124, Thessaloniki, Greece

    P. M. Paradisopoulou, E. E. Papadimitriou & V. G. Karakostas

  2. Department of Geophysics, The Faculty of Mines, İstanbul Technical University, Maslak, 34469, Istanbul, Turkey

    T. Taymaz & S. Yolsal

  3. Department of Geology, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124, Thessaloniki, Greece

    A. Kilias

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Appendix: Events (M ≥ 6.5) Included in the Stress Evolutionary Model

Appendix: Events (M ≥ 6.5) Included in the Stress Evolutionary Model

1904, Samos earthquake (M w  = 6.8): A rupture length equal to 46 km (Papazachos and Papazachou, 2003) and an average displacement of 1.2 m estimated from relation (4) were considered for this oblique normal faulting event (strike = 91°, dip = 45°, rake = −115°) for calculating the Coulomb stress changes due to its coseismic displacement.

1912, Ganos (Mürefte) earthquake (M w  = 7.4): This earthquake occurred between the Gulf of Saros and the Sea of Marmara at the western part of the North Anatolian Fault. The main earthquake was followed by two aftershocks, the first one (M = 6.2) on August 10 and the second (M = 6.7) on September 13 at the SE of the main shock (Papazachos and Papazachou, 2003). Maps, reports and photographs taken just after the earthquake are available (Macovei, 1912; Mihailovic, 1927, 1933). Surface expressions on the 50-km-long strike-slip fault were observed with ENE direction linking the Marmara and the Saros fault systems (Ates and Tabban, 1976; Barka 1992). The surface rupture pattern was complex with a substantial right-lateral strike-slip component (up to 3 m) (Ambraseys and Finkel, 1987). Nalbant et al. (1998) modeled this event with a rupture length of 90 km extended the rupture seen on land by 15 km to the east and 25 km to the west. Papadimitriou and Sykes (2001) use 110 km length and 3.32 m slip derived from scaling laws. In the present study a rupture equal to 116 km and an average slip of 2.8 m were estimated from Eqs. 5 to 6, respectively.

1914, Burdur earthquake (M w  = 7.0): This event occurred near the Burdur Lake and is associated with a 52-km-long normal fault (strike = 230°, dip = 35°, rake = −105°) dipping to NW (Papazachos and Papazachou, 2003), with a calculated mean displacement of 1.66 m (Eq. 4).

1919, Soma earthquake (M w  = 6.9): This earthquake occurred at Bakircay Graben (strike = 253˚, dip = 45˚, rake = −115˚, Taymaz et al., 1991b) on a segment adjacent to the 1939 rupture. A 43-km-fault length was estimated from relation (3) and a mean displacement of 0.63 m from the event’s scalar moment.

1928, Torbali earthquake (M w  = 6.5): This earthquake caused considerable damage in Torbali, Izmir and Kücük Menderes Graben (Papazachos and Papazachou, 2003). It is associated with a normal fault (strike = 83°, dip = 45°, rake = −94°) with 25-km length and a mean displacement of 0.72 m calculated by using Eqs. 3 and 4.

1933, Kos earthquake (M w  = 6.6): This earthquake is associated with a fault segment almost parallel to the south coastline of the Kos Island (strike = 65°, dip = 50°, rake = −90°). An average displacement of 0.85 m and a fault length equal to 28 km were estimated using Eqs. 4 and 5, respectively.

1939, Dikili earthquake (M w  = 6.6): The Dikili earthquake occurred near the coastal Aegean area south of the Edremit Gulf. The isoseismal maps indicate that this event was located at the western extremity of the Bakırcay Graben, a normal fault zone (Arpat and Bingöl, 1969; Westaway, 1990). The event is associated with a NE–SW trending normal faulting dipping to the north (strike = 211°, dip = 45°, rake = −115°). An estimated coseismic displacement of 0.85 m and a rupture length of 26 km were assigned for this event, from Eqs. 4 and 3, respectively.

1944, Ayvacık earthquake (M w  = 6.8): The earthquake occurred near the Edremit Gulf, where the southern branch of the North Anatolian Fault reaches the Aegean Sea through the Edremit Gulf (strike = 74°, dip = 46°, rake = −114° after Taymaz et al., 1991b). A fault length equal to 35 km and an average displacement equal to 1.4 m were estimated from Eqs. 3 and 4, respectively.

1949, Chios earthquake (M w  = 6.7): This earthquake occurred to the north of Chios Island, associated with normal faulting (strike = 84°, dip = 36°, rake = −80°) with an estimated fault length of 31 km, from scaling law (3), and a mean coseismic displacement equal to 1.03 m (Eq. 4).

1953, Yenice earthquake (M w  = 7.2): The Yenice earthquake occurred between the Sea of Marmara to the north and the Edremit Gulf to the south. The rupture took place at the southern branch of NAF over 60 km (Pinar, 1952; Ambraseys, 1970). The earthquake focal mechanism parameters (McKenzie, 1972; Taymaz et al., 1991a) indicate pure southwest–northeast trending right-lateral strike-slip faulting (strike = 250°, dip = 70°, rake = −160°). The slip reaches 3.5 m in the eastern part and diminishes to 1.5 m at both ends (Ketin and Roesli, 1953; Ambraseys, 1970). Nalbant et al. (1998) modeled this event using the observed slip distribution and the geometry (length of 60 km) of the mapped surface rupture. Based on the above information the fault length is taken equal to 60 km and the mean displacement, derived from the event’s scalar moment, is equal to 3.78 m.

1955, Agathonisi earthquake (M w  = 6.9): The earthquake occurred in the Büyük Menderes graben, near Agathonisi Island. The focal mechanism (McKenzie, 1972) shows NE–SW normal faulting (strike = 55°, dip = 51°, rake = −113°). We have modeled this event using a 38-km-fault length with a mean displacement of 1.19 m (Eqs. 3, 4, respectively).

1956, Amorgos earthquake (M w  = 7.7): This is the strongest event that occurred in the backarc Aegean area during the instrumental era. It occurred on an ENE-trending normal fault that is seated parallel to the Island’s southern coastline and was followed by a strong event in an adjacent fault to its southwest, which most probably was triggered by the first occurrence. Its fault plane solution (strike = 65o, dip = 40o, rake = −90o) was determined by Shirokova (1972). A fault length of 75 km, in accordance with the submarine topography, and a mean displacement of 5.30 m, were estimated for this large earthquake from Eqs. 3 and 4, respectively.

1957, Rhodes earthquake (M w  = 7.2): A preshock (M = 6.8) took place before the main earthquake (M = 7.2) near the Rhodes Island and many aftershocks followed, from which the largest one registered magnitude M = 6.1 (Papazachos and Papazachou, 2003). The main shock is associated with a left-lateral strike-slip faulting with a NE–SW strike direction (strike = 30°, dip = 80°, rake = −41°). The fault length is estimated equal to 67 km from Eq. 5 and the mean displacement equal to 1.34 m from Eq. 6.

1957, Abant earthquake (M w  = 7.0): The Abant event occurred on the North Anatolian fault at the eastern part of the study area. The 40-km-long surface faulting was mapped by Ambraseys (1970). The focal mechanism (McKenzie, 1972; Taymaz et al., 1991a) indicates strike-slip faulting (strike = 265°, dip = 78°, rake = 179°). The slip is not well constrained, being measured at only two localities (1.4 and 1.6 m). Taking into account the morphology, a fault length of 40 km was estimated from Eq. 5 in accordance with the morphology, and a mean displacement of 1.47 was calculated from (6), in good agreement with the reported values.

1964, Manyas earthquake (M w  = 6.9): The Manyas earthquake occurred at the south of the Sea of Marmara in the southern branch of NAF between the Lakes Manyas and Uluabat. The focal mechanism (strike = 280°, dip = 45°, rake = −90°) (Taymaz et al., 1991b) indicates a WNW–ESE normal faulting although strike-slip faulting prevails in this part of our study area. The 40-km surface normal faulting (Nalbant et al., 1998) (en echelon surface rupture and fissuring over a wide zone) was interpreted as resulting from the right-lateral strike-slip motion (Erentöz and Kurtman, 1965; Ketin, 1966). A 35-km-long WNW–ESE normal fault dipping to the north is considered here with a mean displacement of 1.4 m (Eq. 6).

1967, Mudurnu earthquake (M w  = 7.2): The Mudurnu earthquake occurred on the NAF at the easternmost part of the Sea of Marmara, Mudurnu Valley, and extended towards the west. Its fault plane solution (strike = 275°, dip = 45°, rake = −178°) based on teleseismic body-waveform (P- and SH-) inversion (Taymaz et al., 1991a) shows a E–W dextral strike-slip faulting mechanism. A large aftershock (July 30, 1967, m b  = 5.6) occurred at its western extremity with NW–SE striking and normal fault plane solution (Stewart and Kanamori, 1982; McKenzie, 1972; Jackson and McKenzie, 1984). This illustrates the change on the NAF in this area between strike–slip motion to the east and normal and strike–slip motion on several branches to the west. Nalbant et al. (1998) used detailed maps of the 80-km-long surface rupture and the fault slip distribution for the event modeling (Ambraseys and Zatopek, 1969; Güçlü, 1969) which is greatest, 2.5 m, in the east and decreases steadily to the west. A fault length of 80 km is taken and a calculated mean displacement from Eq. 6, equal to 2.02 m.

1969, Alaşehir earthquake (M w  = 6.6): The Alaşehir earthquake occurred in the Gediz River Valley, associated with about 30–36 km of surface rupture and extending from NW through Alaşehir to SE (Ambraseys and Tchalenko, 1972). The strike of the surface varied from N85°W in the NW to N50°W in the SE (Ketin and Abdussselamoğlu 1969). Displacements at the surface measured an average of about 20 cm. The fault plane solution of the main earthquake shows a normal faulting with a dip of 32°NNE and a strike of N79°W, consistent with the strike observed at the NW end of surface ruptures (Eyidoğan and Jackson, 1985; Braunmiller and Nabelek, 1996). We model this event using the reported fault plane solution of Eyidoğan and Jackson (1985) (strike = 281°, dip = 34°, rake = −90°) as a normal fault with a length of 25 km, estimated from the Eqs. 3, and a mean displacement of 0.61 m, from Eq. 4.

1970, Gediz earthquakes (M w  = 7.1): About 45 km of complicated surface normal faulting was associated with this earthquake, trending both NNW–SSE and E–W down thrown to the east and north (Ambraseys and Tchalenko, 1972). The aftershock sequence defined a 40-km-wide, 200-km-long, E–W zone (Ambraseys and Tchalenko, 1972). The observed seismograms show complexity and were modeled using three main subevents (Eyidoğan and Jackson, 1985). The first subevent occurred on a 15-km-long NNW–SSE segment with a mean displacement of 1.6 m and a dip of 35°. The second subevent, of the same magnitude (M w 7.1), triggered by the first shock and ruptured about the 24-km-long E–W segment with a mean displacement of 2.4 m and a dip pf 35°. The third subevent, much smaller in magnitude (M 5.7), occurred on a ~15° dipping fault extending the second fault segment from 12.5 to 17.5 km depth (Eyidoğan and Jackson, 1985). We modeled this event as comprising the two major subevents.

1975, Saros earthquake (M w  = 6.6): The Saros segment is located in the prolongation of the Ganos (Gaziköy) fault zone at the western part of the North Anatolian Fault, where the 1975 earthquake occurred. It is an oblique right-lateral strike-slip fault as the focal mechanism indicates (strike = 68°, dip = 55°, rake = −145°) (Taymaz et al., 1991a) with ENE–WSW strike consistent with the orientation of NAF at this particular location. The rupture length is taken equal to 40 km and the mean displacement equal to 0.86 m from Eqs. 5 and 6, respectively.

1999 Izmit (Kocaeli) earthquake (M w  = 7.4): The Izmit earthquake, one of the most destructive earthquakes in Turkey, occurred at the western part of NAF. About 115 km of surface strike-slip faulting was associated with its occurrence, trending E–W from Sapanca–Akyazi at the east to Hersek Delta to the west (Barka et al., 2002). A rupture constituted from four segments (with lengths equal to 35, 20, 26 and 35 km, going from west to east) is considered for modeling this event, according to Barka et al. (2002). Details of the geometry and coseismic slip of each segment are given in Table 2.

1999 Düzce earthquake (M w  = 7.2): This event occurred in Bolü basin, in the adjacent fault segment associated with the previous Izmit earthquake and with in <3 months afterwards. The fault length is about 40–56 km long (Kiratzi and Louvari, 2001; Akyüz et al., 2002; Aydin and Kalafat, 2002) and the focal mechanism indicates a right-lateral strike-slip faulting with E–W strike and dip to the north (strike = 262°, dip = 53°, rake = −177°). We model this event according to Kiratzi and Louvari (2001), who suggested a fault length of 56 km and a mean displacement of 2.60 m.

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Paradisopoulou, P.M., Papadimitriou, E.E., Karakostas, V.G. et al. Seismic Hazard Evaluation in Western Turkey as Revealed by Stress Transfer and Time-dependent Probability Calculations. Pure Appl. Geophys. 167, 1013–1048 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-010-0085-1

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