Abstract
In summer 2018, a total of 18 tropical cyclones (TCs) formed in the western North Pacific (WNP) and South China Sea (SCS), among which 8 TCs landed in China, ranking respectively the second and the first highest since 1951. Most of these TCs travelled northwest to northward, bringing in heavy rainfall and strong winds in eastern China and Japan. The present study investigates the impacts of decaying La Niña and intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) on the extremely active TCs over the WNP and SCS in summer 2018 by use of correlation and composite analyses. It is found that the La Niña episode from October 2017 to March 2018 led to above-normal sea surface temperature (SST) over central-western Pacific, lower sea level pressure and 500-hPa geopotential height over WNP, and abnormally strong convective activities over the western Pacific in summer 2018. These preceding oceanic thermal conditions and their effects on circulation anomalies are favorable to TC genesis in summer. Detailed examination reveals that the monsoon trough was located further north and east, inducing more TCs in northern and eastern WNP; and the more east-ward WNP subtropical high as well as the significant wave train with a “ − + − +” height anomaly pattern over the midlatitude Eurasia-North Pacific region facilitated the northwest to northward TC tracks. Further analyses reveal that two successively active periods of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) occurred in summer 2018 and the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) was also active over WNP, propagating northward significantly, corresponding to the more northward TC tracks. The MJO was stagnant over the Maritime Continent to western Pacific, leading to notably enhanced convection in the lower troposphere and divergence in the upper troposphere, conducive to TC occurrences. In a word, the extremely active TC activities over the WNP and SCS in summer 2018 are closely linked with the decaying La Niña, and the MJO and BSISO; their joint effects result in increased TC occurrences and the TC tracks being shifted more northwest to northward than normal.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Chan, J. C. L., 1985: Tropical cyclone activity in the northwest Pacific in relation to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 599–606, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113<0599:TCAITN>2.0.CO;2.
Chan, J. C. L., 2000: Tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific associated with El Niño and La Niña events. J. Climate, 13, 2960–2972, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2960:TCAOTW>2.0.CO;2.
Chan, J. C. L., 2005: Interannual and interdecadal variations of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 89, 143–152, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-005-0126-y.
Chen, G. H., and R. H. Huang, 2009: Dynamical effects of low frequency oscillation on tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific and the physical mechanisms. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 33, 205–214, doi: https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.02.01. (in Chinese)
Chen, L. J., W. Gu and W. J. Li, 2019: Why is the East Asian summer monsoon extremely strong in 2018? — Collaborative effects of SST and snow cover anomalies J. Meteor. Res., 33, 593–608, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-019-8200-4.
Chen, L. S., 1965: The relationship of middle-high latitude circulation pattern over Asia and typhoon track over western Pacific in late summer. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 35, 476–185, doi: https://doi.org/10.11676/qxxb1965.055. (in Chinese)
Chen, L. S., and Y. H. Ding, 1979: Introduction to Typhoons over West Pacific. Science Press, Beijing, 491 pp. (in Chinese)
Chen, T. C., S. P. Weng, N. Yamazaki, et al., 1998: Interannual variation in the tropical cyclone formation over the western North Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 1080–1090, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<1080:IVITTC>2.0.CO;2.
Chen, T. C., S. Y. Wang, and M. C. Yen, 2006: Interannual variation of the tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. J. Climate, 19, 5709–5720, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3934.1.
Ding, Y. H., and E. R. Reiter, 1981a: Some conditions Influencing the variability of typhoon formation over the West Pacific ocean. Arch. Meteor. Geophys. Bioclim. Ser. A, 30, 327–342, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02280644.
Ding, Y. H., and E. R. Reiter, 1981b: Large-scale circulation conditions affecting the variability in the frequency of tropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and the West Pacific. Environmental Research Paper No. 33, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, 25 pp.
Emanuel, K., 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686–688, doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03906.
Fan, K., 2007: North Pacific sea ice cover, a predictor for the western North Pacific typhoon frequency? Sci. China Ser. D Earth Sci., 37, 851–856. (in Chinese)
Gong, Z. S., and L. J. Chen, 2013: Analysis of anomalous tropical cyclone activities over the western North Pacific and South China Sea in 2010. Climatic Environ. Res., 88, 342–352, doi: https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.11063. (in Chinese)
He, M., W. L. Song, and X. F. Chen, 1999: Typhoon activity in Northwest Pacific in relation with El Niño and La Niña events. J. Trop. Meteor., 5, 153–162.
Hu, C. M., Y. H. Duan, H. Yu, et al., 2005: The diagnostic analysis of the rapid change in tropical cyclones intensity before landfall in South China. J. Trop. Meteor., 21, 377–382, doi: https://doi.org/10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2005.04.005. (in Chinese)
Hu, J., and Y. Q. Wang, 1992: Atmosphere and ocean low-frequency oscillation and their effects on tropical cyclone tracks over the northwestern Pacific. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 50, 420–428, doi: https://doi.org/10.11676/qxxb1992.053. (in Chinese)
Huang, B. Y., P. W. Thorne, V. F. Banzon, et. al., 2017: Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature, version 5 (ERSSTv5): Upgrades, validations, and intercomparisons. J. Climate, 30, 8179–8205, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0836.1.
Huang, P., C. Chou, and R. H. Huang, 2011: Seasonal modulation of tropical intraseasonal oscillations on tropical cyclone geneses in the western North Pacific. J. Climate, 24, 6339–6352, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4200.1.
Huang, R. H., 1992: The East Asia/Pacific pattern teleconnection of summer circulation and climate anomaly in East Asia. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 6, 25–37.
Huang, R. H., and W. J. Li, 1987: Influence of the heat source anomaly over the tropical western Pacific on the subtropical high over East Asia. Proceedings of International Conference on the General Circulation of East Asia, Chengdu, 10–15 April, 40–51.
Huang, R. H., and G. H. Chen, 2007: Research on interannual variations of tracks of tropical cyclones over Northwest Pacific and their physical mechanism. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 65, 683–694, doi: https://doi.org/10.11676/qxxb2007.064. (in Chinese)
Kalnay, E., M. Kanamitsu, R. Kistler, et al., 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437–171, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2.
Kim, H.-M., P. J. Webster, and J. A. Curry, 2011: Modulation of North Pacific tropical cyclone activity by three phases of ENSO. J. Climate, 24, 1839–1849, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3939.1.
Kim, J. H., C. H. Ho, H. S. Kim, et al., 2008: Systematic variation of summertime tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific in relation to the Madden-Jullian oscillation. J. Climate, 21, 1171–1191, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1493.1.
Kistler, R., E. Kalnay, W. Collins, et al., 2001: The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis: Monthly mean CD-ROM and documentation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 882, 247–268, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<0247:TNNYRM>2.3.CO;2.
Lander, M. A., 1994: An exploratory analysis of the relationship between tropical storm formation in the western North Pacific and ENSO. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 636–651, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<0636:AEAOTR>2.0.CO;2.
Lee, J. Y., B. Wang, M. C. Wheeler, et al., 2013: Real-time multivariate indices for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the Asian summer monsoon region. Climate Dyn., 40, 493–509, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1544-4.
Li, C. Y., 1987: A study on the influence of El Niño upon typhoon action over the western Pacific. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 45, 229–236, doi: https://doi.org/10.11676/qxxb1987.028. (in Chinese)
Li, C. Y., J. Pan, H. Tian, et al., 2012: Typhoon activities over the western North Pacific and atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation. Meteor. Mon., 38, 1–16. (in Chinese)
Li, R. C. Y. and W. Zhou, 2012: Changes in western Pacific tropical cyclones associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle. J. Climate, 25, 5864–5878, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00430.1.
Li, R. C. Y., and W. Zhou, 2013a: Modulation of western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity by the ISO. Part I: Genesis and intensity. J. Climate, 26, 2904–2918, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00210.1.
Li, R. C. Y., and W. Zhou, 2013b: Modulation of western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity by the ISO. Part II: Tracks and landfalls. J. Climate, 26, 2919–2930, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00211.1.
Li, T., 2012: Synoptic and climatic aspects of tropical cyclogenesis in western North Pacific. Chap. 3, Cyclones: Formation, Triggers and Control, K. Oouchi, and H. Fudeyasu, Eds., Nova Science Publishers, Inc., Hauppauge, 61–94.
Li, W. J., R. N. Zhang, C. H. Sun, et al., 2016: Recent research advances on the interannual-interdecadal variations of drought/flood in South China and associated causes. J. Appl. Meteor. Sci., 27, 577–591. (in Chinese)
Liu, G., Q. Y. Zhang, and S. Q. Sun, 2007: A preliminary study on activities of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific during the summer of 2006. Climatic Environ. Res., 12, 738–750, doi: https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1006-9585.2007.06.004. (in Chinese)
Liu, G., S. Q. Sun, Q. Y. Zhang, et al., 2009: Characteristics of the intraseasonal oscillation of intertropical convergence zone and its influence on the periodical tropical cyclogenesis. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 33, 879–889, doi: https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.04.20. (in Chinese)
Liu, Q., T. Li, and W. C. Zhou, 2018: Impact of 10–60-day low-frequency steering flows on straight northward-moving typhoon tracks over the western North Pacific. J. Meteor. Res., 32, 394–109, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-018-7035-8.
Madden, R. A., and P. R. Julian, 1971: Detection of a 40–50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific. J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 702–708, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<0702:DOADOI>2.0.CO;2.
Nitta, T., 1987: Convective activities in the tropical western Pacific and their impact on the Northern Hemisphere summer circulation. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 65, 373–432, doi: https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.65.3_373.
Pan, J., C. Y. Li, and J. Song, 2010: The modulation of Madden-Julian Oscillation on typhoons in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 34, 1059–1070, doi: https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2010.06.03. (in Chinese)
Ren, H.-L., B. Lu, J. H. Wan, et al., 2018: Identification standard for ENSO events and its application to climate monitoring and prediction in China. J. Meteor. Res., 32, 923–936, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-018-8078-6.
Reynolds, R. W., N. A. Rayner, T. M. Smith, et al., 2002: An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J. Climate, 15, 1609–1625, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1609:AIISAS>2.0.CO;2.
Sadler, J. C., 1978: Mid-season typhoon development and intensity changes and the tropical upper tropospheric trough. Mon. Wea. Rev., 106, 1137–1152, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1978)106<1137:MSTDAI>2.0.CO;2.
Sobel, A. H., and D. E. Maloney, 2000: Effect of ENSO and the MJO on western North Pacific tropical cyclones. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 1739–1742, doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL011043.
Sun, Z., J. Y. Mao, and G. X. Wu, 2009: Influences of intraseasonal oscillations on the clustering of tropical cyclone activities over the western North Pacific during boreal summer. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 33, 950–958, doi: https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.05.06. (in Chinese)
Tian, H., C. Y. Li, and H. Yang, 2010a: Modulation of typhoon genesis over the western North Pacific by intraseasonal oscillation. J. Trop. Meteor., 26, 283–292, doi: https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2010.03.004. (in Chinese)
Tian, H., C. Y. Li, and H. Yang, 2010b: Modulation of typhoon tracks over the western North Pacific by the intraseasonal oscillation. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 34, 559–579, doi: https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2010.03.09. (in Chinese)
Wang, B., and J. C. L. Chan, 2002: How strong ENSO events affect tropical storm activity over the western North Pacific. J. Climate, 15, 1643–1658, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1643:HSEEAT>2.0.CO;2.
Wang, H., Y. H. Ding, and J. H. He, 2006: Influence of western North Pacific summer monsoon changes on typhoon genesis. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 64, 345–356, doi: https://doi.org/10.11676/qxxb2006.033. (in Chinese)
Wang, H. J., and K. Fan, 2006: Relationship between the Antarctic Oscillation and typhoon frequency in the western North Pacific. Chinese Sci. Bull., 51, 2910–2914, doi: https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:0023-074X.2006.24.015. (in Chinese)
Wang, H. J., J. Q. Sun, and K. Fan, 2007: Relationships between the North Pacific Oscillation and the typhoon/hurricane frequencies. Sci. China Ser. D Earth Sci., 50, 1409–1416. (in Chinese)
Wang, Z.-L., 1981: The infuence of the westerly belt long wave trough over Asia on the western Pacific typhoon tracks. Scientia Atmos. Sinica, 5, 198–206. (in Chinese)
Wang, Z. Y., Y. J. Liu, T. Ding, et al., 2018: Features and possible causes for the climate anomalies in spring 2018. Meteor. Mon., 44, 1360–1369. (in Chinese)
Webster, P. J., G. H. Holland, I. A. Curry, et al., 2005: Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science, 309, 1844–1846, doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1116448.
Wheeler, M., and G. N. Kiladis, 1999: Convectively coupled equatorial waves: Analysis of clouds and temperature in the wave-number-frequency domain. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 374–399, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1999)056<0374:CCEWAO>2.0.CO;2.
Wheeler, M. C., and H. H. Hendon, 2004: An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: Development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1917–1932, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1917:AARMMI>2.0.CO;2.
Wu, G. X., and N.-C. Lau, 1992: A GCM simulation of the relationship between tropical storm formation and ENSO. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 958–977, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1992)120<0958:AGSOTR>2.0.CO;2.
Wu, J., H.-L. Ren, C. B. Zhao, et al., 2016: Research and application of operational MJO monitoring and prediction products in Beijing Climate Center. J. Appl. Meteor. Sci., 27, 641–653, doi: https://doi.org/10.11898/1001-7313.20160601. (in Chinese)
Xie, P. Y., L. Tao, J. H. Li, et al., 2018: Variation of tropical cyclone track in the western North Pacific during ENSO developing and decaying years. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 987–999, doi: https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1708.17118. (in Chinese)
Ying, M., W. Zhang, H. Yu, et al., 2014: An overview of the China Meteorological Administration tropical cyclone database. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 31, 287–301, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-12-00119.1.
Yoshida, R., Y. Kajikawa, and H. Ishikawa, 2014: Impact of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on environment of tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific. SOLA, 10, 15–18, doi: https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2014-004.
You, L. J., J. Y. Gao, H. Lin, et al., 2019: Impact of the intra-seasonal oscillation on tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific. Int. J. Climatol., 39, 1969–1984, doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5927.
Yu, J. H., T. Li, Z. M. Tan, et al., 2016a: Effects of tropical North Atlantic SST on tropical cyclone genesis in the western North Pacific. Climate Dyn., 46, 865–877, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2618-x.
Yu, J. H., C. Chen, T. Li, et al., 2016b: Contribution of major SSTA modes to the climate variability of tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 1171–1181, doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2722.
Zhan, R. F., Y. Q. Wang, and X. T. Lei, 2011: Contributions of ENSO and east Indian Ocean SSTA to the interannual variability of Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone frequency. J. Climate, 24, 509–521, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3808.1.
Zhan, R. F., Y. H. Ding, L. G. Wu, et al., 2016: Role of ENSO in the interannual relationship between Tibetan Plateau winter snow cover and Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone genesis frequency. Sci. China Earth Sci., 59, 2009–2021, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-015-5559-y. (in Chinese)
Zhao, C., and T. Li, 2019: Basin dependence of the MJO modulating tropical cyclone genesis. Climate Dyn., 52, 6081–6096, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4502-y.
Zhu, C. W., T. Nakazawa, and J. P. Li, 2004: Modulation of tropical depression/cyclone over the Indian-western Pacific oceans by Madden-Julian oscillation. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 62, 42–51, doi: https://doi.org/10.11676/qxxb2004.005. (in Chinese)
Acknowledgments
We thank the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments that led to improvements to this paper.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFC1506001), National Basic Research (973) Program of China (2015CB453203), and National Natural Science Foundation of China (41275073 and 41805067).
Electronic supplementary material
13351_2019_9009_MOESM1_ESM.pdf
Extremely Active Tropical Cyclone Activities over the Western North Pacific and South China Sea in Summer 2018: Joint Effects of Decaying La Niña and Intraseasonal Oscillation
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Chen, L., Gong, Z., Wu, J. et al. Extremely Active Tropical Cyclone Activities over the Western North Pacific and South China Sea in Summer 2018: Joint Effects of Decaying La Niña and Intraseasonal Oscillation. J Meteorol Res 33, 609–626 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-019-9009-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-019-9009-x