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A seasonal study of the atmospheric dynamics over the Iberian Peninsula based on circulation types

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Abstract

A seasonal analysis of the atmospheric circulation over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) based on circulation types (CTs) obtained from sea level pressure and 500-hPa geopotential height is presented. The study covers the period of 1958–2008, when a high variability and important changes in winter and spring precipitation and temperature have been reported. Frequency, persistence, and the most probable transitions of the circulation types are analyzed. Among the clustering methods available in the literature, two of the most reliable classification methods have been tested, K-means and simulated annealing and diversified randomization. A comparison of both methods over the IP is presented for winter (DJF). The quality of the circulation types obtained through both methods as well as the better stability achieved by K-means suggest this method as more appropriated for our target area. Twelve CTs were obtained for each season and were analyzed. The patterns obtained were regrouped in five general situations: anticyclonic, cyclonic, zonal, summertime, and hybrid-mixed. The analysis of frequencies of these situations offers a similar characterization of the atmospheric circulation that others previously obtained by subjective methods. The analysis of the trends in frequency and persistence for each CT shows few significant trends, mainly in winter and spring with a general decrease of the cyclonic patterns and an increase of the anticyclonic situations. This can be related to the negative precipitation trends reported by other authors. Regarding the persistence, an interesting result is that there is a high interannual variability of the persistence in autumn and spring, when patterns can persist longer than in other seasons. An analysis of the most probable transitions between the CTs has been performed, revealing the existence of cyclic sequences in all seasons. These sequences are related to the high frequency of certain patterns such as the anticyclonic situations in winter. Finally, a clear seasonal dependence of the transitions between cyclonic situations associated with extratropical disturbances was found. This dependence suggests that the transitions of low-pressure systems towards the south of the IP are more likely in spring and autumn than in winter.

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Acknowledgements

This study received support from the Spanish Ministry of Environment (project ESCENA) and the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology (projects SPEQMORE-CGL2008-06558-C02-02/CLI and SPEQTRES-CGL2011-29672-C02-02). J.J. Gomez-Navarro thanks the Spanish Ministry of Education for his Doctoral scholarship (AP2006-04100), and P. Jimenez-Guerrero thanks the Ramon y Cajal Programme of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation. Thanks to Fidel Gonzalez-Rouco for the stimulating discussions. We would like to acknowledge the anonymous referees for their valuable comments, which improved the final version of this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Regional Atmospheric Modeling Group, Department of Physics, Universidad de Murcia, Murcia, Spain

    Juan Pedro Montavez, Sonia Jerez, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Raquel Lorente-Plazas & Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero

  2. Delegación Territorial de AEMET en Murcia, Murcia, Spain

    Juan Andrés García-Valero

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  1. Juan Andrés García-Valero
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Correspondence to Juan Pedro Montavez.

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García-Valero, J.A., Montavez, J.P., Jerez, S. et al. A seasonal study of the atmospheric dynamics over the Iberian Peninsula based on circulation types. Theor Appl Climatol 110, 291–310 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0623-0

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