Abstract
In this study, the control simulations of two general circulation model (GCM) experiments are assessed in terms of their ability to reproduce realistic ‘real world’ weather. The models examined are the UK Meteorological Office high-resolution atmospheric model (UKHI) and a coupled ocean/atmosphere model of the Max Planck Institut für Meteorologic, Hamburg (MPI). An objective classification of daily airflow patterns over the British Isles is used as a basis for comparing the frequencies of model-generated weather types with the frequencies derived from 110 years of observed mean-sea-level pressure (MSLP) fields. The weather-type frequencies generated by the GCMs, and their relationships with simulated monthly mean temperatures and total precipitation over the UK, are compared, season by season, with similar results derived using the observational data. An index of gale frequencies over the British Isles, derived from a similar objective analysis of daily MSLP fields, is used to evaluate the ability of the GCMs to simulate the observed frequency of storm events. One advantage of using 110 years of observational data is that the observed decadal-scale variability of climate can be introduced into this type of validation exercise. Both the GCMs assessed here are too cyclonic in winter. The seasonality of both anticyclonic and cyclonic types is much too strong in MPI and summer precipitation in this model is greatly underestimated. MPI simulates the annual cycle of temperature well, while UKHI successfully reproduces the annual cycle of precipitation. The analysis also indicates that the summer temperature variability of the two models is not driven by circulation changes.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Arnell NW (1992) Factors controlling the effects of climate change on river flow regimes in a humid temperate environment. J Hydr 132:321–342
Beersma JJ (1992) GCM control run of the UK Meteorological Office compared with the real climate in the NW European winter. Wetenschappelijke Rapporten 92–02, Department of Physical Meteorolgy, Kononklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Institut (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands
Briffa KR, Jones PD, Kelly PM (1990) Principal components analysis of the Lamb catalogue of daily weather types: Part 2, seasonal frequencies and update to 1987. Int J Climatol 10:549–564
Carter T, Parry ML, Nishioka S, Harasawa H (1992) Preliminary guidelines for assessing impacts of climate change. Environmental Change Unit (Oxford)/Center for Global Environmental Research (Tsukuba), Oxford (UK)
Cubasch U, Hasselmann K, Hock H, Maier-Reimer E, Mikolajewicz U, Sauter BD, Sausen R (1992) Time-dependent greenhouse warming computations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Clim Dyn 8:55–70
Davies TD, Farmer G, Barthelmie RJ (1989) Use of simple daily atmospheric circulation types for the interpretation of precipitation composition at a site (Eskdalemuir) in Scotland, 1978–1984. Atmos Environ 24 (A):63–72
Farmer G, Davies TD, Barthelmie RJ, Kelly PM, Brimblecombe P (1989) The control by atmospheric pressure of sulphate concentrations in precipitation at Eskdalemuir, Scotland. J Climatol 9:181–190
Finkelstein PL, Truppi LE (1991) Spatial distribution of precipitation seasonality in the United States. J Clim 4:373–385
Giorgi F, Mearns LO (1991) Approaches to the simulation of regional climate change: a review. J Geophys Res 29:191–216
Gordon HB, Whetton PH, Pittock AB, Fowler AM, Haylock MR (1992) Simulated changes in daily rainfall intensity due to the enhanced greenhouse effect: implications for extreme rainfall events. Clim Dyn 8:83–102
Gregory JM, Jones PD, Wigley TML (1991) Precipitation in Britain: an analysis of area-average data updated to 1989. Int J Climatol 11:331–345
Grotch SL (1991) A statistical intercomparison of temperature and precipitation predicted by four general circulation models with historical data. In: Schlesinger ME (ed) Greenhouse-gasinduced climatic change: a critical appraisal of simulations and observations. Elsevier, Amsterdam pp 3–16
Grotch SL, MacCracken MC (1991) The use of general circulation models to predict regional climatic change. J Clim 4:286–303
Hay LE, McCabe GJ, Wolock DM, Ayers MA (1992) Use of weather types to disaggregate General Circulation Model predictions. J Geophys Res 97:2781–2790
Hewitson BS, Crane RG (1992) Regional-scale climate prediction from the GISS GCM. Glob Planet Change 5:249–267
Hulme M (1991) An intercomparison of model and observed global precipitation climatologies. Geophys Res Lett 18:1715–1718
Hulme M, Jones PD (1991) Temperatures and windiness over the UK during the winters of 1988/89 and 1989/90 compared to previous years. Weather 46:126–135
Hulme M, Wigley TML, Jiang T, Zhao Z-C, Wang F, Ding Y, Leemans R, Markham A (1992) Climate change due to the greenhouse effect and its implications for China. WWF International, Gland, Switzerland
Jenkinson AF, Collison FP (1977) An initial Clmatology of gales over the North Sea Synoptic Climatology Branch Memorandum No 62. Meteorological Office, Bracknell
Jones PD (1987) The early twentieth century Arctic high — fact or fiction? Clim Dyn 1:63–75
Jones PD, Kelly PM (1982) Principal component analysis of the Lamb Catalogue of Daily Weather Types: Part I, annual frequencies. J Climatol 2:147–157
Jones PD, Hulme M, Briffa KR (1993) A comparison of Lamb circulation types with an objective classification derived from grid-point mean-sea-level pressure data. Int J Climatol (in press)
Lamb HH (1950) Types and spells of weather around the year in the British Isles. Q J R Meteorol Soc 76:393–438
Lamb HH (1972) British Isles weather types and a register of the daily sequence of circulation patterns 1861–1971. Geophys Mem Vol 16
Manabe S, Stouffer RJ, Spelman MJ, Bryan K (1991) Transient response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to gradual changes of atmospheric CO2. Part I: annual mean response. J Clim 4:785–818
Manley G (1974) Central England temperatures: monthly means 1659 to 1973. Q J R Meteorol Soc 100:389–405
Mearns LO, Schneider SH, Thompson SL, McDaniel LR (1990) Analysis of climate variability in general circulation models: comparison with observations and changes in variability in 2 × CO2 experiments. J Geophys Res 95:20, 469–20, 490
Mitchell JFB, Manabe S, Meleshko V, Tokioka T (1990) Equilibrium climate change and its implications for the future. In: Houghton JT, Jenkins GJ, Ephraims JJ (eds) Climate change: the IPCC scientific assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 137–164
Mitchell JFB, Senior CA, Ingram WJ (1989) CO2 and climate: a missing feedback. Nature 341:132–134
Murphy J (1992) Transient response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to a gradual increase in CO2. In: Boer GJ (ed) Research activities in atmospheric and oceanic modelling, CAS/JSC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation, Report No 17. WMO/TD 467, Geneva, pp 9.1–9.3
Murray R, Lewis RPW (1966) Some aspects of the synoptic climatology of the British Isles as measured by simple indices. Meteorol Mag 95:192–203
Parker DE, Legg TP, Folland CK (1992) A new daily Central England temperature series, 1772–1991 Int J Climatol 12:317–342
Pitman AJ, Giorgi F, Henderson-Sellers A (1991) Southeast Australia's wintertime precipitation: sensitivity of climate predictions to model resolution. Australian Meteorol Mag 39:21–36
Portman DA, Wang W-C, Karl TR (1992) Comparison of general circulation model and observed regional climates: daily and seasonal variability. J Clim 5:343–353
Reed DN (1986) Simulation of time series of temperature and precipitation over eastern England by an atmospheric GCM. J Climatol 6:233–254
Roeckner E, Arpe K, Bengtsson L, Brinkop S, Dümenil L, Esch M, Kirk E, Lunkeit F, Ponater M, Rockel B, Sausen R, Schlese U, Schubert S, Windelband M (1992) Simulation of the present-day climate with the ECHAM model: impact of model physics and resolution. Max Planck Institute fur Meteorologie, Report No 93, Hamburg FRG
Santer BD (1988) Regional validation of General Circulation Models Climatic Research Unit Publication No 9. Climatic Research Unit, Norwich
Santer BD, Wigley TML (1990) Regional validation of means, variances and spatial patterns in GCM control runs. J Geophys Res 95:829–850
Walsh JE, Crane RG (1992) A comparison of GCM simulations of Arctic climate. Geophys Res Lett 19:29–32
Washington WM, Meehl GA (1989) Climate sensitivity due to increased CO2: experiments with a coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation model. Clim Dyn 4:1–38
Whetton PH, Fowler AM, Haylock MR, Pittock AB (1993) Implications of climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on floods and droughts in Australia. Clim Change (in press)
Wigley TML, Lough JM, Jones PD (1984) Spatial patterns of precipitation in England and Wales and a revised homogenous England and Wales precipitation series. J Climatol 4:1–26
Wilson CA, Mitchell JFB (1987) A doubled CO2 climate sensitivity experiment with a global climate model including a simple ocean. J Geophys Res 92:13315–13343
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Hulme, M., Briffal, K.R., Jones, P.D. et al. Validation of GCM control simulations using indices of daily airflow types over the British Isles. Climate Dynamics 9, 95–105 (1993). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00210012
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00210012