Comparison of the radiomics-based predictive models using machine learning and nomogram for epidermal growth factor receptor mutation status and subtypes in lung adenocarcinoma

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to develop the predictive models for epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutation status and subtypes [exon 21-point mutation (L858R) and exon 19 deletion mutation (19Del)] and evaluate their clinical usefulness. Total 172 patients with lung adenocarcinoma were retrospectively analyzed. The analysis of variance and the least absolute shrinkage were used for feature selection from plain computed tomography images. Then, radiomic score (rad-score) was calculated for the training and test cohorts. Two machine learning (ML) models with 5-fold were applied to construct the predictive models with rad-score, clinical features, and the combination of rad-score and clinical features. The nomogram was developed using rad-score and clinical features. The prediction performance was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Finally, decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed using the best ML and nomogram models. In the test cohorts, the AUC of the best ML and the nomogram model were 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.59–0.87) and 0.79 (0.65–0.92) in the EGFR mutation groups, 0.83 (0.67–0.99) and 0.85 (0.72–0.97) in the L858R mutation groups, as well as 0.77 (0.58–0.97) and 0.77 (0.60–0.95) in the 19Del groups. The DCA showed that the nomogram models have comparable results with ML models. We constructed two predictive models for EGFR mutation status and subtypes. The nomogram models had comparable results to the ML models. Because the superiority of the performance of ML and nomogram models varied depending on the prediction groups, appropriate model selection is necessary.