Abstract
To better understand the characteristics of rivers and manage water resources, it is necessary to analyze the trend of runoff and sediment series under climate change. In this paper, the classic Mann–Kendall test, Spearman’s Rho test, and the two variance-corrected innovative trend analysis were used to analyze the annual, seasonal, and non-flood season runoff, sediment transport rate, and sediment content at three stations in the upper Weigan River Basin. The modified MOW method was used to whiten the series with high-order significant autocorrelation to meet the requirements of MK, SR, and other methods that require time series independence. The test statistic and slope using the 4 methods were compared. The results showed that (1) the modified MOW method can eliminate the significant autocorrelation of series under a low loss trend. (2) The runoff and sediment transport rate series in the upstream basin showed a significant increasing trend. The sediment transport rate increase in summer was the main factor causing the sediment to increase annually in the upstream basin. (3) The comparison of trend testing ability of the four methods was SR/MK > ITA_W > ITA_R. (4) For time series with extreme values, the trend slopes calculated by the TSM and ITA methods were quite different. The study showed that the two variance-corrected ITA methods did not obtain better results than the classic method. The advantage of the ITA_R method was that it does not consider the correlation of the series.
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The authors would like to acknowledge the Xinjiang Kizil Reservoir Management Bureau and Xinjiang Investigation and Design Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydropower for providing data.
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Kong, X., Shi, K., Yao, H. et al. A comparative study of runoff and sediment trends between the classical method and variance-corrected ITA method. Arab J Geosci 15, 1514 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-022-10802-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-022-10802-2