Abstract
Knowledge of the historical changes in streamflow is essential for operating and planning water structures. Hence, the monthly mean streamflow trends of 20 streamflow gauge stations in Turkey’s Mediterranean basins, which are sensitive to climate change, are examined using the Mann–Kendall test, and trend slopes are calculated using Sen’s slope method. Furthermore, the innovative trend significance test (ITST) and recently proposed innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA) method are used to analyse the historical changes in streamflow values at the stations. The trend analysis results of a total of 240-time series between 1977 and 2015 are evaluated and compared with three different trend methods. As a result of the study, the MK method determined significant trends in only 24% (3 increasing, 55 decreasing), ITST in 83% (41 increasing, 158 decreasing), and IPTA in 82% (38 increasing, 158 decreasing) of the 240-time series. The IPTA and ITST methods are more sensitive to determining significant monthly streamflow trends than the MK method. In addition, there is a more significant decrease in the streamflow values of the stations located east of the basin, and the trend slope value reaches − 26%/decade. Therefore, the results of the streamflow trend in the Mediterranean basins will benefit decision-makers in planning the efficient use of water resources in the region.
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The datasets used and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on a reasonable request.
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The authors are thankful to the General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works in Turkey for providing the dataset.
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VG: conceptualization, coding, performing analysis, and writing the manuscript; OS: preparing the graphics, interpreting results, and writing the manuscript; and YA: interpreting results and writing the discussion.
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Gumus, V., Simsek, O. & Avsaroglu, Y. Evaluation of long-term monthly mean streamflow trend in the Mediterranean basins using different methods. Theor Appl Climatol 151, 1369–1382 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04293-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04293-0