Abstract
Understanding the distribution and abundance of organisms can be exceedingly difficult for pelagic fish species that live in estuarine environments. This is particularly so for fish that cannot be readily marked and released or otherwise tracked, such as the diminutive delta smelt, Hypomesus transpacificus, endemic to the San Francisco Estuary. The environmental factors that influence their distribution operate at multiple scales, from daily tidal cycles and local perceptual fields to seasonal and annual changes in dominant environmental gradients spanning the entire San Francisco Estuary. To quantify scale-specific patterns and factors shaping the spatiotemporal abundance dynamics of adult delta smelt, we fit a suite of models to an extensive, spatially resolved, catch survey time series from 13 annual cohorts. The best model included cohort-specific abundance indicators and daily mortality rates, a regional spatial adjustment, and haul-specific environmental conditions. The regional adjustment identified several density hot spots that were persistent across cohorts. While this model did include local environmental conditions, the gain in explained variation was relatively slight compared to that explained by the regional adjustment. Total abundance estimates were derived by multiplying habitat volume by catch density (design-based) and modeled density (model-based), with both showing severe declines in the population over the time period studied. The design-based approaches had lower uncertainty but potentially higher bias. We discuss the implications of our results for advancing the science and improving management of delta smelt, and future data collection needs.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Arreguín-Sánchez, Francisco. 1996. Catchability: A key parameter for fish stock assessment. Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries 6: 221–242.
Augustin, Nicole H., Verena M. Trenkel, Simon N. Wood, and Pascal Lorance. 2013. Space-time modelling of blue ling for fisheries stock management. Environmetrics 24: 109–119.
Bennett, William A. 2005. Critical assessment of the delta smelt population in the San Francisco Estuary, California. San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science 3: 1–71.
Bennett, William A., and Jon R. Burau. 2015. Riders on the storm: Selective tidal movements facilitate the spawning migration of threatened delta smelt in the San Francisco Estuary. Estuaries and Coasts 38: 826–835.
Bennett, William A., Wim J. Kimmerer, and Jon R. Burau. 2002. Plasticity in vertical migration by native and exotic estuarine fishes in a dynamic low-salinity zone. Limnology and Oceanography 47: 1496–1507.
Bever, Aaron J., Michael L. MacWilliams, Bruce Herbold, Larry R. Brown, and Frederick V. Feyrer. 2016. Linking hydrodynamic complexity to delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) distribution in the San Francisco Estuary, USA. San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science 14: 1–25.
Brown, Larry R., Wim J. Kimmerer, and Randall Brown. 2009. Managing water to protect fish: A review of California’s environmental water account, 2001–2005. Environmental Management 43: 357–368.
Burnham, Kenneth P., and David Anderson. 2002. Model selection and multimodel inference: A practical information-theoretic approach. New York: Springer.
Clark, James S. 2007. Models for ecological data: An introduction. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Cloern, James E., and Alan D. Jassby. 2012. Drivers of change in estuarine-coastal ecosystems: Discoveries from four decades of study in San Francisco Bay. Reviews of Geophysics 50: 1–33.
Feyrer, Frederick, Ken B. Newman, Matthew Nobriga, and Ted Sommer. 2011. Modeling the effects of future outflow on the abiotic habitat of an imperiled estuarine fish. Estuaries and Coasts 34: 120–128.
Feyrer, Frederick, Donald Portz, Darren Odum, Ken B. Newman, Ted Sommer, Dave Contreras, Randall Baxter, Steven B. Slater, Deanna Sereno, and Erwin Van Nieuwenhuyse. 2013. SmeltCam: Underwater video codend for trawled nets with an application to the distribution of the imperiled delta smelt. PloS One 8: e67829.
Hastie, Trevor, and Robert Tibshirani. 1986. Generalized additive models (with discussion). Statistical Science 1: 297–318.
Kimmerer, Wim J. 2008. Losses of Sacramento River Chinook salmon and delta smelt to entrainment in water diversions in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science 6.
Kimmerer, Wim J. 2011. Modeling delta smelt losses at the south delta export facilities. San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science 9.
Kimmerer, Wim J., and A.D. McKinnon. 1987. Zooplankton in a marine bay. II. Vertical migration to maintain horizontal distributions. Marine Ecology Progress Series 41: 53–60.
Komoroske, L.M., R.E. Connon, J. Lindberg, B.S. Cheng, G. Castillo, M. Hasenbein, and N.A. Fangue. 2014. Ontogeny influences sensitivity to climate change stressors in an endangered fish. Conservation Physiology 2: 1–13.
Komoroske, Lisa M., Ken M. Jeffries, Richard E. Connon, Jason Dexter, Matthias Hasenbein, Christine Verhille, and Nann A. Fangue. 2016. Sublethal salinity stress contributes to habitat limitation in an endangered estuarine fish. Evolutionary Applications 9: 963–981.
Krebs, Charles J. 1994. Ecology: The experimental analysis of distribution and abundance. 4th ed. New York: HarperCollins College Publishers.
Mac Nally, Ralph, James R. Thomson, Wim J. Kimmerer, Frederick Feyrer, Ken B. Newman, Andy Sih, William A. Bennett, et al. 2010. Analysis of pelagic species decline in the upper San Francisco Estuary using multivariate autoregressive modeling (MAR). Ecological Applications 20: 1417–1430.
Maunder, Mark N., and Richard B. Deriso. 2011. A state–space multistage life cycle model to evaluate population impacts in the presence of density dependence: Illustrated with application to delta smelt (Hyposmesus transpacificus). Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 68: 1285–1306.
Maunder, M.N., P.R. Crone, J.L. Valero, and B.X. Semmens. 2014. Selectivity: Theory, estimation, and application in fishery stock assessment models. Fisheries Research 158: 1–4.
Merz, Joseph E., Scott Hamilton, Paul S. Bergman, and Bradley Cavallo. 2011. Spatial perspective for delta smelt: A summary of contemporary survey data. California Fish and Game 97: 164–189.
Moyle, Peter B., Larry R. Brown, John R. Durand, and James A. Hobbs. 2016. Delta smelt: Life history and decline of a once-abundant species in the San Francisco Estuary. San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science 14: 1–30.
Murphy, Dennis D., and Scott A. Hamilton. 2013. Eastward migration or marshward dispersal: Exercising survey data to elicit an understanding of seasonal movement of delta smelt. San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science 11: 1–21.
Nobriga, Matthew L., Ted R. Sommer, Frederick Feyrer, and Kevin Fleming. 2008. Long-term trends in summertime habitat suitability for delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus). San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science 6: 1–13.
Odum, William E. 1988. Comparative ecology of tidal freshwater and salt marshes. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 19: 147–176.
Peebles, Ernst B., Scott E. Burghart, and David J. Hollander. 2007. Causes of interestuarine variability in bay anchovy (Anchoa mitchilli) salinity at capture. Estuaries and Coasts 30: 1060–1074.
Polansky, L., Matt Nobriga, Ken Newman, Matt Dekar, Kim Webb, and Mike Chotkowski. 2014. Delta smelt movement during and extreme drought: Intensive Kodiak trawling at Jersey Point. Interagency Ecological Newsletter 4: 5–13.
R Core Team. 2016. R: A language and environment for statistical computing (version 3.3.0). Vienna: R Foundation for Statistical Computing.
Reum, Jonathan C.P., Timothy E. Essington, Correigh M. Greene, Casimir A. Rice, and Kurt L. Fresh. 2011. Multiscale influence of climate on estuarine populations of forage fish: The role of coastal upwelling, freshwater flow and temperature. Marine Ecology Progress Series 425: 203–215.
Rose, Kenneth A., Wim J. Kimmerer, Karen P. Edwards, and William A. Bennett. 2013. Individual-based modeling of delta smelt population dynamics in the upper San Francisco Estuary: I. Model description and baseline results. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 142: 1238–1259.
Swanson, Christina, Turid Reid, Patricia S. Young, Joseph J. Cech, and Jr. 2000. Comparative environmental tolerances of threatened delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) and introduced wakasagi (H. nipponensis) in an altered California estuary. Oecologia 123: 384–390.
Sweetnam, Dale A. 1999. Status of delta smelt in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Estuary. California: California Department of Fish and Game.
Thomson, James R., Wim J. Kimmerer, Larry R. Brown, Ken B. Newman, Ralph Mac Nally, William A. Bennett, Frederick Feyrer, and Erica Fleishman. 2010. Bayesian change point analysis of abundance trends for pelagic fishes in the upper San Francisco Estuary. Ecological Applications 20: 1431–1448.
Venables, W.N., and B.D. Ripley. 2002. Modern applied statistics with S. Fourth ed. New York: Springer.
Wood, Simon N. 2004. Stable and efficient multiple smoothing parameter estimation for generalized additive models. Journal of the American Statistical Association 99: 673–686.
Wood, Simon N. 2006. Generalized additive models: An introduction with R. Boca Raton: Chapman & Hall.
Wood, Simon N. 2008. Soap film smoothing. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 70: 931–955.
Wood, Simon N. 2011. Fast stable restricted maximum likelihood and marginal likelihood estimation of semiparametric generalized linear models. Journal of the Royal Society: Series B 73: 3–36.
Acknowledgements
Two reviewers and Associate Editor Dr. W. J. Kimmerer provided extensive comments that substantially improved earlier versions of this manuscript. The viewpoints expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the U.S. Department of the Interior or the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Communicated by Wim J. Kimmerer
Electronic supplementary material
ESM 1
Supplementary material with additional details, figures and code is provided. Data and code are available from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. (PDF 3741 kb)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Polansky, L., Newman, K.B., Nobriga, M.L. et al. Spatiotemporal Models of an Estuarine Fish Species to Identify Patterns and Factors Impacting Their Distribution and Abundance. Estuaries and Coasts 41, 572–581 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-017-0277-3
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-017-0277-3