Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Decadal variation of ocean heat content and tropical cyclone activity over the Bay of Bengal

  • Published:
Journal of Earth System Science Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The upper ocean heat content up to 700 m depth (OHC700) is an important climatic parameter required for atmospheric and oceanographic studies like a cyclone. In this study, therefore, an attempt has been made to examine the inter-decadal variations of tropical cyclone (TC) activity and OHC700 over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) for the post-monsoon season (October–December) during 1955–2013 periods. The sea-surface temperature (SST), geopotential height at 500 hPa, low-level vorticity at 850 hPa, vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa, middle tropospheric humidity at 500 hPa and outgoing long-wave radiation are also being studied using seasonal mean data. The results show a significant inter-decadal variation during 1955–2013, with two distinct decadal periods: active decadal period (ADP) (1955–1988) and inactive decadal period (IDP) (1989–2013). The anomalies of these parameters are opposite in phase for two periods. It is found that the large scale atmospheric features and oceanic parameters have significant inter-decadal variability, but frequency of the tropical cyclone is attributed to the variation in the atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic conditions rather than the variation of oceanic parameters OHC700 and SSTs during the post-monsoon season.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
Figure 8
Figure 9

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ali M M, Jagadeesh P S V and Jain S 2007 Effects of eddies and dynamic topography on the Bay of Bengal cyclone intensity; EOS Trans. AGU 88 93–95.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Belanger J I, Webster P J, Curry J A and Jelinek M T 2012 Extended prediction of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclones; Wea. Forecasting 27 757–769.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bindoff N, Willebrand J, Artale V., and Cazenave A et al. 2007 Observations: Oceanic climate change and sea level; In: Climate change 2007: The physical science basis (eds) Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt K B, Tignor M and Miller H L, Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (Cambridge, UK and New York, USA: Cambridge University Press), pp. 385–431.

  • Chu P S 2002 Large-scale circulation features associated with decadal variations of tropical cyclone activity over the central North Pacific; J. Climate 15 2678–2689.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chu P S, Zhao X, Lee C T and Lu M M 2007 Climate prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the vicinity of Taiwan using the multivariate least absolute deviation regression method; Terres. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. 18 805–825. doi: 10.3319/TAO.2007.18.4.805(A).

  • Elsner J B, Jagger T and Niu X-F 2000 Changes in the rates of North Atlantic major hurricane activity during the 20th century; Geophys. Res. Lett. 27 1743–1746.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel K A 1999 Thermodynamic control of hurricane intensity; Nature 401 665–669.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gera A, Mitra A K, Mahapatra D K, Ali I, Rajagopal E N and Basu S 2013 Sea surface height and upper ocean heat content variability in Bay of Bengal during contrasting monsoons 2009 and 2010; Report: http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/NMRF_RR_OCN1-mar2013SSHA_UOHC.pdf.

  • Goni G, DeMaria M, Knaff J, Sampson C, Ginis I, Bringas F, Mavume A, Lauer C, Lin I-I, Ali M M, Sandery P, Ramos-Buarque S, Kang K, Mehra A, Chassignet E and Halliwell G 2009 Applications of satellite-derived ocean measurements to tropical cyclone intensity forecasting; Oceanography 22 (3) 190–197. doi: 10.5670/oceanog.2009.78.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gray W M 1968 Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms; Mon. Wea. Rev. 96 669–700.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gray W M 1975. Tropical cyclone genesis; Dept. Atmos. Sci., Paper No. 234, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO, 121p.

  • Gray W M 1977 Tropical cyclone genesis in the western North Pacific; J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan 55 465–482.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gray W M 1979 Hurricanes: Their formation structure and likely role in the tropical circulation; In: Meteorology over the tropical oceans (ed.) Shaw D B, Royal Meteorological Society, pp. 155–218.

  • Jayanthi N 1997 An objective analysis of tropical cyclones of the North Indian Ocean with special reference to track prediction capabilities over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea; PhD thesis, University of Madras.

  • Joseph P V and Xavier P. K 1999 Monsoon rainfall and frequencies of monsoon depressions and tropical cyclones of recent 100 years and an outlook for the first decades of the 21st century; Proceedings of TROPMET-1999 symposium, 364p.

  • Kotal S D, Roy Bhowmik S K, Kundu P K and Das A K 2008 A statistical cyclone intensity prediction (SCIP) model for Bay of Bengal; J. Earth Syst. Sci. 117 157–168.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kotal S D, Kundu P K and Roy Bhowmik S K 2009 Analysis of cyclogenesis parameter for developing and non-developing low-pressure systems over the Indian Sea; Nat. Hazards 50 389–402.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leipper D F and Volgenau D 1972 Hurricane heat potential of the Gulf of Mexico; J. Phys. Oceanogr. 2 218–224.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Levitus S, Antonov J and Boyer T 2005 Warming of the world ocean; Geophys. Res. Lett. 32 L02604.

    Google Scholar 

  • McBride J L 1995 Tropical cyclone formation: Global perspectives on tropical cyclones; WMO/TD No. 693, Rep. TCP-38, World Meteorological Organization, pp. 63–105.

  • McBride J L and Zehr R M 1981 Observational analysis of tropical cyclone formation. Part II: Comparison of non-developing versus developing systems; J. Atmos. Sci. 38 1132–1151, 10.1175/1520-0469(1981)038<1132:OAOTCF>2.0.CO;2.

  • Momin I M, Sharma R and Basu S 2011 Satellite derived heat content in the tropical Indian Ocean; Remote Sens. Lett. 2 269–277.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mandke S K and Bhide U V 2003 A study of decreasing storm frequency over Bay of Bengal; J. Indian Geophys. Union 7 53–58.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nath S, Kotal S D and Kundu P K 2013 Analysis of a genesis potential parameter during pre-cyclone watch period over the Bay of Bengal; Nat. Hazards 65 2253–2265.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Neumann C J 1993 Global overview: Global guide to tropical cyclone forecasting; WMO/TC No. 560, Report No. TCP-31, WMO Geneva 1.1–1.43.

  • Palmen E N 1948 On the formation and structure of the tropical hurricane; Geophysica 3 26–38.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rajeevan M, De U S and Prasad R K 2000 Decadal variation of sea surface temperatures, cloudiness and monsoon depressions in the North Indian Ocean; Curr. Sci. 79 283–285.

    Google Scholar 

  • Revelle R, Broecker W, Craig H, Keeling C D and Smagorinsky J 1965 Appendix Y4, in restoring the quality of our environment report of the environmental pollution panel; pp. 112–133.

  • Rossby C 1959 Current problems in meteorology in the atmosphere and sea in motion; Rockefeller Inst. Press, New York, pp. 9–50.

  • Royer J-F, Chauvin F, Tinbal B, Araspin P and Grimal D 1998 A GCM study of the impact of greenhouse gas increase in the frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclones; Clim. Change 38 307–343.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shay L K and Brewster J. K 2010 Oceanic heat content variability in the eastern Pacific Ocean for hurricane intensity forecasting; Mon. Wea. Rev. 138 2110–2131.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shay L K, Goni G J and Black P G 2000 Effects of a warm oceanic feature on Hurricane Opal; Mon. Wea. Rev. 128 1366–1383.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shyamala B and Iyer B G 1996 Statistical study of cyclonic disturbances in Arabian Sea; Proceedings of TROPMET.

  • Singh O P and Route R K 1999 Frequency of cyclonic disturbances over the North Indian Ocean during ENSO years; Proceedings of TROPMET-1999 Symposium 297.

  • Srivastava A K, Sinha Ray K and De U S 2000 Trends in the frequency of cyclonic disturbances and their intensification over Indian seas; Mausam 51 (2) 113–118.

    Google Scholar 

  • Swallow J C 1984 Some aspects of the physical oceanography of the Indian Ocean; Institute of Oceanography Sciences (NERC), Survey, UK 31 (6–8) 639–650.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang B and Chan J C L 2002 How strong Enso events affect tropical storm activity over the western north pacific; J. Climate 15 1643–1658.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wada A and Chan J C L 2008 Relationship between typhoon activity and upper ocean heat content; Geophys. Res. Lett. 35 L17603.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wada A and Usui N 2007 Importance of tropical cyclone heat potential for tropical cyclone intensity and intensification in the western North Pacific; J. Oceanogr. 63 427–447.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xavier P K and Joseph P V 2000 Vertical wind shear in relation to frequency of monsoon depressions and tropical cyclones of Indian seas; Proceedings of National Symposium Tropmet-2000, January 2000, Cochin, India.

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to the Director General of Meteorology, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi for providing all the facilities to carry out this research work. The authors acknowledge the use of NCEP and NCAR data in this research work.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. India Meteorological Department, Mausam Bhavan, Lodi Road, New Delhi, 110 003, India.

    SANKAR NATH & S D KOTAL

  2. Department of Mathematics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, 700 032, India.

    P K KUNDU

Authors
  1. SANKAR NATH
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. S D KOTAL
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. P K KUNDU
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to SANKAR NATH.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

NATH, S., KOTAL, S.D. & KUNDU, P.K. Decadal variation of ocean heat content and tropical cyclone activity over the Bay of Bengal. J Earth Syst Sci 125, 65–74 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-015-0651-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-015-0651-0

Keywords

Search

Navigation