Abstract
Fog may continue to inhibit industry in the future. Here, we focused on a specific advection fog event in Shanghai, China, and applied a pseudo global warming method to examine advection fog under the RCP8.5 high-emission scenario. The method involved downscaling the future atmospheric conditions over the ensemble average of 19 global climate models from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We used the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model (WRF—UCM) to run four sensitivity experiments and examined the advection fog and its relationship to changes in meteorological conditions. The results showed that: 1) The advection fog event tended to remain in Shanghai despite global warming; 2) advection fog will not change greatly in the future; however, the onset and dissipation times will change slightly; 3) relative humidity (RH) locally increases prior to the onset of the advection fog, and decreases at the dissipating stage, despite the current and future experiments having the same RH initial and boundary conditions; 4) a small increase in surface air temperature and an increase in RH contribute to the early advection fog onset, and vice versa. Windspeed facilitates the early onset and dissipation of advection fog.
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Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 52175103). We would like to thank Lidia Lazarova Vitanova from Nikken Sekkei Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan for assistance in postprocessing of the simulations.
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Ying Gu has a B.Sc. in Geographical Science in 2004 and Ph.D. Sc. in physical geography in 2010 from East China Normal University, Shanghai, China. She is a lecturer at Shanghai University of Engineering Science, Shanghai, China. Her research focuses on urban atmospheric environment and numerical analyzing and modeling. She has published 10 peer-reviewed articles related to fog, anthropogenic heat, air pollution, data assimilation.
Hiroyuki Kusaka has a Ph.D. in Science in 2002 from University of Tsukuba, Japan. He is a Professor at University of Tsukuba and studies urban climate and local winds. He is best known worldwide for designing the WRF model’s first urban canopy scheme. He has published over 120 peer-reviewed articles in urban climatology, mountain meteorology, and applied meteorology. Prof. Kusaka is the recipient of the Helmut E. Landsberg Award 2021 of the American Meteorological Society (AMS).
Quang-Van Doan has Ph.D. in science from the University of Tsukuba, Japan, in 2016. He is working as an assistant professor at the Center for Computational Sciences, the University of Tsukuba since 2019. He is known as an expert in urban climatology with a focus on the impacts of urbanization on urban heat island and rainfall processes, statistical and numerical modeling. He has published over 30 peer-reviewed articles on urban climate, urban canopy modeling, machine learning, applied meteorology. Prof. Quang-Van Doan is a member of multiple professional societies, such as the Meteorological Society of Japan, the American Meteorological Society, the American Geophysical Union, Asia Oceania Geosciences Society. He is currently serving on the Board on Urban Environment of the American Meteorological Society.
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Gu, Y., Kusaka, H. & Doan, QV. An advection fog event response to future climate forcing in the 2030s–2080s: a case study for Shanghai. Front. Earth Sci. 17, 527–546 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-022-1002-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-022-1002-5