Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Relative impacts of increased greenhouse gas concentrations and land cover change on the surface climate in arid and semi-arid regions of China

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Four dynamical downscaling simulations are performed with different combinations of land cover maps and greenhouse gas (GHG) levels using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model nested in the Community Earth System (CESM) model. A pseudo-global warming downscaling method is used to effectively separate the anthropogenic signals from the internal noises of climate models. Based on these simulations, we investigate the impacts of anthropogenic increase in GHG concentrations and land use and land cover change (LULCC) on mean climate and extreme events in the arid and semi-arid regions of China. The results suggest that increased GHG concentrations lead to significant increases in the surface air temperature at 2 m height (T2m) by 1–1.5 °C and greater increase in the warm day temperature (TX90p) than the cold day temperature (TX10p) in the arid and semi-arid regions. Moreover, precipitation increases by 30–50% in the arid region in cold season (November to March) due to the GHG-induced increase in moisture recycling rate and precipitation efficiency. LULCC leads to significant decreases in the T2m, TX90p, and TX10p by approximately 0.3 °C. The regional LULCC accounts for 66 and 68% decrease in T2m in warm and cold seasons, respectively. The rest changes in T2m results from the changes in lateral boundary condition induced by the global LULCC. In response to LULCC, both the warm and cold day temperatures show a significant decrease in cold seasons, which primarily results from the regional LULCC. LULCC-induced changes in precipitation are generally weak in the arid and semi-arid regions of China.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Avila FB, Pitman AJ, Dona MG, Alexander LV, Abramowitz G (2012) Climate model simulated changes in temperature extremes due to land cover change. J Geophys Res 117:D04108. doi:10.1029/2011JD016382

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bruyère CL, Done JM, Holland GJ, Fredrick S (2013) Bias corrections of global models for regional climate simulations of high-impact weather. Clim Dyn 43:1847–1856. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-2011-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Budyko MI (1974) Climate and life. Academic Press, Cambridge 508 pp

    Google Scholar 

  • Collins WD, et al (2004) Description of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.0). NCAR Tech.Note NCAR/TN-4641STR, 214 pp.

  • Dai Y, Zeng X, Dickinson RE, Baker I, Bonan GB, Bosilovich MG et al (2003) The common land model. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 84:1013–1023

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ding YH, Ren GY, Shi GY et al (2006) National assessment report of climate change (I): climate change in China and its future trend. Adv Clim Chang Res 2(1):3–8 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Flato G, Marotzke J, Abiodun B et al (2013) Evaluation of climate models. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Fu C (2003) Potential impacts of human-induced land cover change on East Asia monsoon. Glob Planet Chang 37:219–229

    Google Scholar 

  • Gao X, Zhao Z, Ding Y et al (2001) Climate change due to greenhouse effects in China as simulated by a regional climate model. Adv Atmos Sci 18(6):1224–1230

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gao X, Zhao Z, Giorgi F (2002) Changes of extreme events in regional climate simulations over East Asia. Adv Atmos Sci 19(5):927–942

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gao X, Luo Y, Lin W et al (2003) Simulation of effects of land use change on climate in China by a regional climate model. Adv Atmos Sci 20:583–559

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gent PR et al (2011) The community climate system model version 4 (CCSM4). J Clim 24:4973–4991

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ, Lister DH (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations—the CRU TS3.10 dataset. Int J Climatol 34:623–642

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hong S-Y, Noh Y, Dudhia J (2006) A new vertical diffusion package with an explicit treatment of entrainment processes. Mon Weather Rev 134:2318–2341

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hua W, Chen H (2013a) Impacts of regional-scale land use/land cover change on diurnal temperature range. Adv Clim Chang Res 4(3):166–172. doi:10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.166

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hua W, Chen H (2013b) Recognition of climatic effects of land use/land cover change under global warming. Chin Sci Bull 58:3852–3858. doi:10.1007/s11434-013-5902-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hua W, Chen H, Li X (2015) Effects of future land use change on the regional climate in China. Sci China Earth Sci 58(10):1840–1848. doi:10.1007/s11430-015-5082-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hua L, Zhong L, Ke Z (2016) Precipitation recycling and soil-precipitation interaction across the arid and semi-arid regions of China. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.4586

  • Kain JS (2004) The Kain–Fritsch convective parameterization: an update. J Appl Meteorol 43:170–181

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kanamitsu M, Ebisuzaki W, Woollen J, Yang S-K, Hnilo JJ, Fiorino M, Potter GL (2002) NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83:1631–1643

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kawase H, Yoshikane T, Hara M et al (2009) Intermodel variability of future changes in the Baiu rainband estimated by the pseudo global warming downscaling method. J Geophys Res 114:D24110. doi:10.1029/2009JD011803

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li X, Chen H, Liao H, Hua W, Sun S, Ma H, Li X, Gao C, Zhu S (2017) Potential effects of land cover change on temperature extremes over Eurasia: current versus historical experiments. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.4976

  • Ma Z, Fu C (2006) Some evidence of drying trend over northern China from 1951 to 2004. Chin Sci Bull 51(23):2913–2925

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Min S-K, Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Hegerl GC (2011) Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes. Nature 470:378–381

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Myhre G, Shindell D, Bréon F-M, et al (2013) Anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, et al (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, pp 1535

  • Pitman AJ, Avila FB, Abramowitz G et al (2011) Importance of background climate in determining impact of land-cover change on regional climate. Nat Clim Chang 1:472–475. doi:10.1038/nclimate1294

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pitman AJ, de Noblet-Ducoudré N, Avila FB, Alexander LV, Boisier J-P, Brovkin V, Delire C, Cruz F, Donat MG, Gayler V, van den Hurk B, Reick C, Voldoire A (2012) Effects of land cover change on temperature and rainfall extremes in multi-model ensemble simulations. Earth Syst Dynam 3:213–231. doi:10.5194/esd-3-213-2012

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramankutty N, Foley JA (1999) Estimating historical changes in global land cover: croplands from 1700 to 1992. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 13(4):997–1027

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ren GY, Feng GL, Yan ZW (2010) Progresses in observation studies of climate extremes and changes in mainland China. Clim Environ Res 15(4):337–353 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Sato T, Kimura F, Kitoh A (2007) Projection of global warming onto regional precipitation over Mongolia using a regional climate model. J Hydrol 333:144–154

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schär C, Frei C, Lüthi D, Davies HC (1996) Surrogate climate-change scenarios for regional climate models. Geophys Res Lett 23(6):669–672

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schär C, Lüthi D, Beyerle U, Heise E (1999) The soil-precipitation feedback: a process study with a regional climate model. J Clim 12:722–741

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schneider U, Becker A, Finger P, Meyer-Christoffer A, Ziese M, Rudolf B (2014) GPCC’s new land surface precipitation climatology based on quality-controlled in situ data and its role in quantifying the global water cycle. Theor Appl Climatol 115:15–40. doi:10.1007/s00704-013-0860-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Skamarock WC, Klemp JB, Dudhia J, Gill DO, Barker DM, Duda MG, Huang XY, Wang W, Powers JG (2008) A description of the Advanced Research WRF version 3, NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-4751STR, 113 pp

  • Tang J, Chen X, Zhao M, Su B (2009) Numerical simulation of regional climate change under IPCC A2 scenario in China. Acta Meteorol Sin 23(1):29–42

    Google Scholar 

  • von Storch H, Zwiers F (1999) Statistical analysis in climate research. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 484pp

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Xu Z, Yang Z-L (2012) An improved dynamical downscaling method with GCM bias corrections and its validation with 30 years of climate simulation. J Clim 25:6271–6282

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu Z, Yang Z-L (2015) A new dynamical downscaling approach with GCM bias corrections and spectral nudging. J Geophys Res Atmos 120. doi:10.1002/2014JD022958

  • Xu Z, Mahmood R, Yang Z-L, Fu C, Su H (2015) Investigating diurnal and seasonal climatic response to land use and land cover change over monsoon Asia with the Community Earth System Model. J Geophys Res Atmos 120:1137–1152. doi:10.1002/2014JD022479

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang Q, Ma Z (2014) Comparison of different precipitation observations in Xinjiang and its possible cause analysis. Clim Environ Res 19(4):452–462 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhai P, Pan X (2003) Trends in temperature extremes during 1951–1999 in China. Geophys Res Lett 30(17):1913–1916

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhai P, Zhang X, Wan H et al (2005) Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China. J Clim 18:1096–1108

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang W, Xu Z, Guo W (2016) The impacts of land use and land cover change on tropospheric temperatures at global and regional scales. Earth Interact. doi:10.1175/EI-D-15-0029.1

  • Zhao Z, Luo Y, Huang J (2011) Written in the IPCC special report published relating to extreme climate event assessments. Adv Clim Chang Res 7(6):455–457 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhou L, Dickinson RE, Dai AG, Dirmeyer P (2010) Detection and attribution of anthropogenic forcing to diurnal temperature range changes from 1950 to 1999: comparing multi-model simulations with observations. Clim Dyn 35:1289–1307

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zwiers F, von Storch H (1995) Taking serial correlation into account in tests of the mean. J Clim 8:336–351

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

NCEP_Reanalysis 2 data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/. This research is jointly sponsored by the “National Basic Research Program of China” Project 2012CB956203, The National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFA0600403), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41675080), and the Major Research Plan of the National Science Foundation of China (91637103).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. CAS Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 40 Hua Yan Li, Qi Jia Huo Zi, Beijing, 100029, China

    Zhongfeng Xu & Zong-Liang Yang

  2. Department of Geological Sciences, The Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA

    Zong-Liang Yang

Authors
  1. Zhongfeng Xu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Zong-Liang Yang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Zhongfeng Xu.

Additional information

This article is part of a Special Issue on “Decadal Scale Drought in Arid Regions” edited by Zong-Liang Yang and Zhuguo Ma.

Electronic supplementary material

ESM 1

(DOCX 9771 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Xu, Z., Yang, ZL. Relative impacts of increased greenhouse gas concentrations and land cover change on the surface climate in arid and semi-arid regions of China. Climatic Change 144, 491–503 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2025-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2025-x

Keywords

Search

Navigation