Abstract
Remaining useful life (RUL) refers to the remaining service life of a mechanical system after it runs for a period. Predicting the remaining service life of the system accurately can greatly reduce the loss caused by system downtime and improve the reliability of system operation. Various RUL prediction methods are discussed in this paper. According to the analysis and discussion of various articles, the RUL prediction methods commonly used in the literature can be divided into four categories: physics model-based approaches, statistical model-based approaches, AI approaches, and hybrid approaches. Then the definition and common methods of these classifications are systematically introduced. Finally, the advantages and disadvantages of each method are analyzed and summarized.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
X.S. Si, W. Wang, C.H. Hu, D.H. Zhou, Remaining useful life estimation—a review on the statistical data driven approaches. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 213, 1–14 (2011)
N. Li, Y. Lei, J. Lin, S.X. Ding, An improved exponential model for predicting remaining useful life of rolling element bearings. IEEE Trans. Industr. Electron. 62, 7762–7773 (2015)
N.Z. Gebraeel, M.A. Lawley, R. Li, J.K. Ryan, Residual-life distributions from component degradation signals: a Bayesian approach. IIE Trans. 37, 543–557 (2005)
X.S. Si, W.B. Wang, C.H. Hu, M.Y. Chen, D.H. Zhou, A Wiener-process-based degradation model with a recursive filter algorithm for remaining useful life estimation. Mech. Syst. Signal Process. 35, 219–237 (2013)
ISO 13381-1, Condition Monitoring and Diagnostics of Machines-Prognostics-Part 1: General Guidelines (2015)
A.K.S. Jardine, D.M. Lin, D. Banjevic, A review on machinery diagnostics and prognostics implementing condition-based maintenance. Mech. Syst. Signal Process. 20, 1483–1510 (2006)
A. Heng, S. Zhang, A.C.C. Tan, J. Mathew, Rotating machinery prognostics: state of the art, challenges and opportunities. Mech. Syst. Signal Process. 23, 724–739 (2009)
J.Z. Sikorska, M. Hodkiewicz, L. Ma, Prognostic modelling options for remaining useful life estimation by industry. Mech. Syst. Signal Process. 25, 1803–1836 (2011)
J. Lee, F.J. Wu, W.Y. Zhao, M. Ghaffari, L.X. Liao, D. Siegel, Prognostics and health management design for rotary machinery systems—reviews, methodology and applications. Mech. Syst. Signal Process. 42, 314–334 (2014)
M.S. Kan, A.C.C. Tan, J. Mathew, A review on prognostic techniques for non-stationary and non-linear rotating systems. Mech. Syst. Signal Process. 62–63, 1–20 (2015)
S. Cubillo, M. Perinpanayagam, Esperon-Miguez, a review of physics-based models in prognostics: application to gears and bearings of rotating machinery. Adv. Mech. Eng. 8, 1–21 (2016)
J. Wang, R.X. Gao, Z. Yuan, Z. Fan, L. Zhang, A joint particle filter and expectation maximization approach to machine condition prognosis. J. Intell. Manuf. 25, 1–17 (2016)
J. Sun, H. Zuo, W. Wang, M.G. Pecht, Prognostics uncertainty reduction by fusing on-line monitoring data based on a state-space-based degradation model. Mech. Syst. Signal Process. 45, 396–407 (2014)
C.H. Oppenheimer, K.A. Loparo, Physically Based Diagnosis and Prognosis of Cracked Rotor Shafts, in: Component and Systems Diagnostics, Prognostics, and Health Management II, (Orlando, 2002), pp. 1–11
W. Ostachowicz, M. Krawczuk, Coupled torsional and bending vibrations of a rotor with an open crack. Arch. Appl. Mech. 62, 191–201 (1992)
P. Baraldi, F. Mangili, E. Zio, A Kalman filter-based ensemble approach with application to turbine creep prognostics. IEEE Trans. Reliab. 61, 966–977 (2012)
P. Baraldi, F. Mangili, E. Zio, Investigation of uncertainty treatment capability of model-based and data-driven prognostic methods using simulated data. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safety. 112, 94–108 (2013)
Y. Hu, P. Baraldi, F.D. Maio, E. Zio, Online performance assessment method for a model-based prognostic approach. IEEE Trans. Reliab. 65, 718–735 (2016)
K.S. Chan, M.P. Enright, J.P. Moody, B. Hocking, S.H.K. Fitch, Life prediction for turbopropulsion systems under dwell fatigue conditions. J. Eng. Gas Turbines Power. 134, 1–8 (2012)
K. El-Tawil, A.A. Jaoude, Stochastic and nonlinear-based prognostic model. Syst. Sci. Control Eng. 1, 66–81 (2013)
D. Barraza-Barraza, V.G. Tercero-Gómez, M.G. Beruvides, J. Limón-Robles, An adaptive ARX model to estimate the RUL of aluminum plates based on its crack growth. Mech. Syst. Signal Process. 82, 519–536 (2017)
R. Gumiński, S. Radkowski, The use of logistic model in RUL assessment. J. Phys.: Conf. Ser. (2017). https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/936/1/012080
H. TzuHsuan, C. YuanJen, H. HeKai, C. TsungTi, H. PoWen, Predicting the remaining useful life of landing gear with prognostics and health management (PHM). Aerospace. 9(8), 646 (2022)
T. Escobet, J. Quevedo, V. Puig, A Fault/Anomaly System Prognosis Using a Data-Driven Approach Considering Uncertainty, in International Joint Conference on Neural Networks, (IEEE, 2012), pp. 1–7
C.J. Lu, W.Q. Meeker, Using degradation measures to estimate a time-to-failure distribution. Technometrics. 35, 161–174 (1993)
W.Q. Meeker, L.A. Escobar, C.J. Lu, Accelerated degradation tests: modeling and analysis. Technometrics. 40, 89–99 (1998)
J.I. Park, S.J. Bae, Direct prediction methods on lifetime distribution of organic light-emitting diodes from accelerated degradation tests. IEEE Trans. Reliab. 59, 74–90 (2010)
F.C. Zegarra, J. Vargas-Machuca, A.M. Coronado, Tool wear and remaining useful life (RUL) prediction based on reduced feature set and Bayesian hyperparameter optimization. Prod. Eng. 16(4), 465–480 (2022)
R. Zhou, N. Gebraeel, N. Serban, Degradation modeling and monitoring of truncated degradation signals. IIE Trans. 44, 793–803 (2012)
T. Yan, D. Wang, T. Xia, L. Xi, A generic framework for degradation modeling based on fusion of spectrum amplitudes. IEEE Trans. Autom. Sci. Eng. PP(99), 1–12 (2020)
W. Wang, B. Hussin, T. Jefferis, A case study of condition based maintenance modelling based upon the oil analysis data of marine diesel engines using stochastic filtering. Int. J. Prod. Econ. 136, 84–92 (2012)
W. Wang, A two-stage prognosis model in condition based maintenance. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 182, 1177–1187 (2007)
M.J. Carr, W. Wang, Modeling failure modes for residual life prediction using stochastic filtering theory. IEEE Trans. Reliab. 59, 346–355 (2010)
M.J. Carr, W. Wang, An approximate algorithm for prognostic modelling using condition monitoring information. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 211, 90–96 (2011)
K.A. Doksum, A. Hbyland, Models for variable-stress accelerated life testing experiments based on Wener processes and the inverse Gaussian distribution. Technometrics. 34, 74–82 (1992)
G.A. Whitmore, F. Schenkelberg, Modelling accelerated degradation data using Wiener diffusion with a time scale transformation. Lifetime Data Anal. 3, 27–45 (1997)
S.-T. Tseng, J. Tang, I.-H. Ku, Determination of burn-in parameters and residual life for highly reliable products. Naval Res. Logist. 50, 1–14 (2003)
S.-T. Tseng, C.-Y. Peng, Optimal burn-in policy by using an integrated Wiener process. IIE Trans. 36, 1161–1170 (2004)
W.J. Park, Padgett, accelerated degradation models for failure based on geometric Brownian motion and gamma processes. Lifetime Data Anal. 11, 511–527 (2005)
W.J. Park, Padgett, New cumulative damage models for failure using stochastic processes as initial damage. IEEE Trans. Reliab. 54, 530–540 (2005)
W.J. Park, Padgett, Stochastic degradation models with several accelerating variables. IEEE Trans. Reliab. 55, 379–390 (2006)
X.S. Si, W.B. Wang, C.H. Hu, D.H. Zhou, M.G. Pecht, Remaining useful life estimation based on a nonlinear diffusion degradation process. IEEE Trans. Reliab. 61, 50–67 (2012)
X. Fang, R. Zhou, N. Gebraeel, An adaptive functional regression-based prognostic model for applications with missing data. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safety. 133, 266–274 (2015)
C. Paroissin, Inference for the Wiener process with random initiation time. IEEE Trans. Reliab. 65, 147–157 (2016)
Z.X. Zhang, X.S. Si, C.H. Hu, An age- and state-dependent nonlinear prognostic model for degrading systems. IEEE Trans. Reliab. 64, 1214–1228 (2015)
L. Bian, N. Gebraeel, Stochastic modeling and real-time prognostics for multi-component systems with degradation rate interactions. IIE Trans. 46, 470–482 (2014)
B. Yan, X. Ma, G. Huang, Y. Zhao, Two-stage physics-based Wiener process models for online RUL prediction in field vibration data. Mech. Syst. Signal Process. 152, 107378 (2020)
Y. Wen, J. Wu, D. Das, T.L.B. Tseng, Degradation modeling and RUL prediction using Wiener process subject to multiple change points and unit heterogeneity. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. (2018). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2018.04.005
J.P. Kharoufeh, Explicit results for wear processes in a Markovian environment. Oper. Res. Lett. 31, 237–244 (2003)
J.P. Kharoufeh, S.M. Cox, Stochastic models for degradation-based reliability. IIE Trans. 37, 533–542 (2005)
J.P. Kharoufeh, C.J. Solo, M.Y. Ulukus, Semi-Markov models for degradation-based reliability. IIE Trans. 42, 599–612 (2010)
M. Kurt, J.P. Kharoufeh, Optimally maintaining a Markovian deteriorating system with limited imperfect repairs. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 205, 368–380 (2010)
M. Giorgio, M. Guida, G. Pulcini, An age- and state-dependent Markov model for degradation processes. IIE Trans. 43, 621–632 (2011)
Y. Liu, M.J. Zuo, Y.-F. Li, H.-Z. Huang, Dynamic reliability assessment for multi-state systems utilizing system-level inspection data. IEEE Trans. Reliab. 64, 1287–1299 (2015)
D. Ying, D. Chaoqun, W. Tonghai, Lubricating oil deterioration modeling and remaining useful life prediction based on hidden semi-Markov modeling. Proc. Inst. Mech. Eng. Part J: J. Eng. Tribol. (2022). https://doi.org/10.1177/13506501211038106
Z. Yunshui, C. Weimin, Health indicator construction and life prediction of the point switch machine. J. Failure Anal. Prevent. (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/S11668-022-01382-0
H. Zhang, M. Chen, J. Shang, C. Yang, Y. Sun, Stochastic process-based degradation modeling and RUL prediction: from Brownian motion to fractional Brownian motion. Sci. China (Inf. Sci.). 64(07), 5–24 (2021)
C. Bunks, D. McCarthy, T. Al-Ani, Condition-based maintenance of machines using hidden Markov models. Mech. Syst. Signal Process. 14, 597–612 (2000)
D. Lin, V. Makis, Recursive filters for a partially observable system subject to random failure. Adv. Appl. Probab. 35, 207–227 (2003)
R.B. Camci, Chinnam, Health-state estimation and prognostics in machining processes. IEEE Trans. Automat. Sci. Eng. 7, 581–597 (2010)
S.S.H. Zaidi, S. Aviyente, M. Salman, K.-K. Shin, E.G. Strangas, Prognosis of gear failures in DC starter motors using hidden Markov models. IEEE Trans. Industr. Electron. 58, 1695–1706 (2011)
S.-Z. Yu, Hidden semi-Markov models. Artif. Intell. 174, 215–243 (2010)
M. Dong, D. He, Hidden semi-Markov model-based methodology for multi-sensor equipment health diagnosis and prognosis. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 178, 858–878 (2007)
M. Dong, D. He, A segmental hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM)-based diagnostics and prognostics framework and methodology. Mech. Syst. Signal Process. 21, 2248–2266 (2007)
K. Medjaher, D.A. Tobon-Mejia, N. Zerhouni, Remaining useful life estimation of critical components with application to bearings. IEEE Trans. Reliab. 61, 292–302 (2012)
D.A. Tobon-Mejia, K. Medjaher, N. Zerhouni, G. Tripot, A data-driven failure prognostics method based on mixture of gaussians hidden Markov models. IEEE Trans. Reliab. 61, 491–503 (2012)
Y. Peng, M. Dong, A prognosis method using age-dependent hidden semi-Markov model for equipment health prediction. Mech. Syst. Signal Process. 25, 237–252 (2011)
V. Makis, A.K. Jardine, Optimal replacement in the proportional hazards model, INFOR: Inform. Syst. Oper. Res. 30, 172–183 (1992)
V. Makis, X. Jiang, Optimal replacement under partial observations. Math. Oper. Res. 28, 382–394 (2003)
D. Kumar, B. Klefsjö, Proportional hazards model: a review. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safety. 44, 177–188 (1994)
D. Jardine, V. Banjevic, Makis, Optimal replacement policy and the structure of software for condition-based maintenance. J. Qual. Maint. Eng. 3, 109–119 (1997)
D. Banjevic, A. Jardine, V. Makis, M. Ennis, A control-limit policy and software for condition-based maintenance optimization, INFOR: Inform. Syst. Oper. Res. 39, 32–50 (2001)
P. Vlok, J. Coetzee, D. Banjevic, A. Jardine, V. Makis, Optimal component replacement decisions using vibration monitoring and the proportionalhazards model. J. Oper. Res. Soc. 53, 193–202 (2002)
Y. Gu, Q. Bi, G. Qiu, Practical health indicator construction methodology for bearing ensemble remaining useful life prediction with ISOMAP-DE and ELM-WPHM. Measure. Sci. Technol. (2022). https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6501/AC3855
D. Banjevic, A. Jardine, Calculation of reliability function and remaining useful life for a Markov failure time process. IMA J. Manage. Math. 17, 115–130 (2006)
E.A. Elsayed, H. Zhang, Design of PH-based accelerated life testing plans under multiple-stress-type. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safety. 92, 286–292 (2007)
J. Van Noortwijk, A survey of the application of gamma processes in maintenance. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safety. 94, 2–21 (2009)
S.P. Kuniewski, J.A. van der Weide, J.M. van Noortwijk, Sampling inspection for the evaluation of time-dependent reliability of deteriorating systems under imperfect defect detection. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safety. 94, 1480–1490 (2009)
V. Bagdonavicius, M.S. Nikulin, Estimation in degradation models with explanatory variables. Lifetime Data Anal. 7, 85–103 (2001)
J. Lawless, M. Crowder, Covariates and random effects in a gamma process model with application to degradation and failure. Lifetime Data Anal. 10, 213–227 (2004)
S. Chakraborty, N. Gebraeel, M. Lawley, H. Wan, Residual-life estimation for components with non-symmetric priors. IIE Trans. 41, 372–387 (2009)
C.-C. Tsai, S.-T. Tseng, N. Balakrishnan, Optimal burn-in policy for highly reliable products using gamma degradation process. IEEE Trans. Reliab. 60, 234–245 (2011)
C.-C. Tsai, S.-T. Tseng, N. Balakrishnan, Mis-specification analyses of gamma and Wiener degradation processes. J. Stat. Plan. Infer. 141, 3725–3735 (2011)
C.-C. Tsai, S.-T. Tseng, N. Balakrishnan, Optimal design for degradation tests based on gamma processes with random effects. IEEE Trans. Reliab. 61, 604–613 (2012)
X. Wang, D. Xu, An inverse Gaussian process model for degradation data. Technometrics. 52, 188–197 (2010)
Z.-S. Ye, N. Chen, The inverse Gaussian process as a degradation model. Technometrics. 56, 302–311 (2014)
Z.-S. Ye, L.-P. Chen, L.C. Tang, M. Xie, Accelerated degradation test planning using the inverse Gaussian process. IEEE Trans. Reliab. 63, 750–763 (2014)
N. Chen, Z.-S. Ye, Y. Xiang, L. Zhang, Condition-based maintenance using the inverse Gaussian degradation model. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 243, 190–199 (2015)
H. Qin, S. Zhang, W. Zhou, Inverse Gaussian process-based corrosion growth modeling and its application in the reliability analysis for energy pipelines. Front. Struct. Civil Eng. 7, 276–287 (2013)
S. Zhang, W. Zhou, H. Qin, Inverse Gaussian process-based corrosion growth model for energy pipelines considering the sizing error in inspection data. Corros. Sci. 73, 309–320 (2013)
C.-Y. Peng, Inverse Gaussian processes with random effects and explanatory variables for degradation data. Technometrics. 57, 100–111 (2015)
Z. Liu, X. Ma, J. Yang, Y. Zhao, Reliability modeling for systems with multiple degradation processes using inverse Gaussian process and copulas. Math. Probl Eng. 2014, 1–10 (2014)
W. Peng, Y.-F. Li, Y.-J. Yang, S.-P. Zhu, H.-Z. Huang, Bivariate analysis of incomplete degradation observations based on inverse Gaussian processes and copulas. IEEE Trans. Reliab. 65, 624–639 (2016)
G. Giner, G.K. Smyth, Statmod: Probability calculations for the inverse Gaussian distribution. The R J. 8, 1–18 (2016)
J.-B. Pan, J. Liu, Cao, Remaining useful life estimation using an inverse Gaussian degradation model. Neurocomputing. 185, 64–72 (2016)
N.Z. Gebraeel, M.A. Lawley, A neural network degradation model for computing and updating residual life distributions. IEEE Trans. Autom. Sci. Eng. 5, 154–163 (2008)
S.-J. Wu, N. Gebraeel, M.A. Lawley, Y. Yih, A neural network integrated decision support system for condition-based optimal predictive maintenance policy, IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern-Part A: Syst. Hum. 37, 226–236 (2007)
Z. Tian, An artificial neural network method for remaining useful life prediction of equipment subject to condition monitoring. J. Intell. Manuf. 23, 227–237 (2012)
Z. Tian, A Neural Network Approach for Remaining Useful Life Prediction Utilizing Both Failure and Suspension Data, in Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, (IEEE, 2010), pp. 1–6
M. Elforjani, Estimation of remaining useful life of slow speed bearings using acoustic emission signals. J. Nondestr. Eval. 35, 32–62 (2016)
B. Oguz, J.A. Jones, S. Sankararaman, I. Roychoudhury, K. Goebel, A neural network framework for similarity-based prognostics. MethodsX (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mex.2019.02.015
C. Sbarufatti, M. Corbetta, A. Manes, M. Giglio, Sequential Monte-Carlo sampling based on a committee of artificial neural networks for posterior state estimation and residual lifetime prediction. Int. J. Fatigue. 83, 10–23 (2016)
D. She, M. Jia, A BiGRU method for remaining useful life prediction of machinery. Measurement (2021). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.measurement.2020.108277
R. Zemouri, D. Racoceanu, N. Zerhouni, Recurrent radial basis function network for time-series prediction. Eng. Appl. Artif. Intell. 16, 453–463 (2003)
D. Liu, W. Xie, H. Liao, Y. Peng, An integrated probabilistic approach to lithium-ion battery remaining useful life estimation. IEEE Trans. Instrum. Meas. 64, 660–670 (2014)
J.-S.R. Jang, C.-T. Sun, Neuro-Fuzzy and Soft Computing. (Prentice-Hall Inc, Englewood, 1997)
W. Wang, M.F. Golnaraghi, F. Ismail, Prognosis of machine health condition using neuro-fuzzy systems. Mech. Syst. Signal Process. 18, 813–831 (2004)
M. He, Y. Zhou, Y. Li, W. Gaofeng, G. Tang, Long short-term memory network with multi-resolution singular value decomposition for prediction of bearing performance degradation. Measurement (2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.measurement.2020.107582
Y. Zijian, Z. Qiang, S. Siyu, N. Tianlin, Z. Yuwei, Rolling bearing health indicator extraction and RUL prediction based on multi-scale convolutional autoencoder. Appl. Sci. (2022). https://doi.org/10.3390/APP12115747
M. Sayah, D. Guebli, Z.A. Masry, N. Zerhouni, Robustness testing framework for RUL prediction Deep LSTM networks. ISA Trans. (2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isatra.2020.07.003
C. Dingliang, Q. Yi, W. Yi, Z. Jianghong, Health indicator construction by quadratic function-based deep convolutional auto-encoder and its application into bearing RUL prediction. ISA Trans. (2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ISATRA.2020.12.052
H. Cheng-Geng, H. Hong-Zhong, L. Yan-Feng, P. Weiwen, A novel deep convolutional neural network-bootstrap integrated method for RUL prediction of rolling bearing. J. Manuf. Syst. (2021). https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JMSY.2021.03.012
C. Han, K. Xianguang, W. Qibin, M. Hongbo, Y. Shengkang, The two-stage RUL prediction across operation conditions using deep transfer learning and insufficient degradation data. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safety. (2022). https://doi.org/10.1016/J.RESS.2022.108581
W. Chenyang, J. Wanlu, Y. Xukang, Z. Shuqing, RUL prediction of rolling bearings based on a DCAE and CNN. Appl. Sci. 11(23), 974 (2021). https://doi.org/10.3390/APP112311516
C. Wenbai, C. Weizhao, L. Huixiang, W. Yiqun, G.Y. Bi Chunli, A RUL prediction method of small sample equipment based on DCNN-BiLSTM and domain adaptation. Mathematics. 10(7), 5485 (2022). https://doi.org/10.3390/MATH10071022
T. Lin, H. Wang, X. Guo, P. Wang, L. Song, A novel prediction network for remaining useful life of rotating machinery. Int. J. Adv. Manuf. Technol. (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/S00170-021-08351-1
K. Ziqiu, C. Cagatay, T. Bedir, Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of equipment in production lines using artificial neural networks. Sensors. 21(3), 567 (2021). https://doi.org/10.3390/S21030932
Y. Lei, Z. He, Y. Zi, Q. Hu, Fault diagnosis of rotating machinery based on multiple ANFIS combination with GAS. Mech. Syst. Signal Process. 21, 2280–2294 (2007)
W. Wang, An adaptive predictor for dynamic system forecasting. Mech. Syst. Signal Process. 21, 809–823 (2007)
W. Wang, J. Vrbanek, An evolving fuzzy predictor for industrial applications. IEEE Trans. Fuzzy Syst. 16, 1439–1449 (2008)
T. Marios, S. Chrysostomos, Introducing fuzzy cognitive map for predicting engine’s health status. IFAC PapersOnLine (2022). https://doi.org/10.1016/J.IFACOL.2022.04.201
J. Liu, W. Wang, F. Golnaraghi, A multi-step predictor with a variable input pattern for system state forecasting. Mech. Syst. Signal Process. 23, 1586–1599 (2009)
Z. Fagang, C. Jin, G. Lei, L. Xinglin, Neuro-fuzzy based condition prediction of bearing health. J. Vib. Control. 15, 1079–1091 (2009)
V.T. Tran, B.-S. Yang, A.C.C. Tan, Multi-step ahead direct prediction for the machine condition prognosis using regression trees and neuro-fuzzy systems. Expert Syst. Appl. 36, 9378–9387 (2009)
C. Chen, B. Zhang, G. Vachtsevanos, M. Orchard, Machine condition prediction based on adaptive neuro–fuzzy and high-order particle filtering. IEEE Trans. Industr. Electron. 58, 4353–4364 (2011)
C. Chen, G. Vachtsevanos, M.E. Orchard, Machine remaining useful life prediction: an integrated adaptive neuro-fuzzy and high-order particle filtering approach. Mech. Syst. Signal Process. 28, 597–607 (2012)
S. Hussain, H.A. Gabbar, Vibration analysis and time series prediction for wind turbine gearbox prognostics. IJPHM Spec. Issue Wind Turbine PHM. 1, 69–80 (2013)
V.N. Vapnik, An overview of statistical learning theory. IEEE Trans. Neural Netw. 10, 988–999 (1999)
A. Widodo, B.-S. Yang, Machine health prognostics using survival probability and support vector machine. Expert Syst. Appl. 38, 8430–8437 (2011)
V.T. Tran, B.-S. Yang, An intelligent condition-based maintenance platform for rotating machinery. Expert Syst. Appl. 39, 2977–2988 (2012)
J. Liu, V. Vitelli, E. Zio, R. Seraoui, A novel dynamic-weighted probabilistic support vector regression-based ensemble for prognostics of time series data. IEEE Trans. Reliab. 64, 1203–1213 (2015)
J. Liu, E. Zio, An adaptive online learning approach for support vector regression: Online-SVR-FID. Mech. Syst. Signal Process. 76–77, 796–809 (2016)
L. Yuxiong, H. Xianzhen, Z. Chengying, D. Pengfei, A novel remaining useful life prediction method based on multi-support vector regression fusion and adaptive weight updating. ISA Trans. (2022). https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ISATRA.2022.04.042
L. Yifan, X. Yongyong, P. Baisong, S. Luojie, A hybrid remaining useful life prediction method for cutting tool considering the wear state. Int. J. Adv. Manuf. Technol. (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/S00170-022-09417-4
M. Yan, X. Wang, B. Wang, M. Chang, I. Muhammad, Bearing remaining useful life prediction using support vector machine and hybrid degradation tracking model. ISA Trans. (2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isatra.2019.08.058
C.M. Bishop, M.E. Tipping, Variational Relevance Vector Machines, in 16th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, (Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 2000), pp. 46–53
M.E. Tipping, Sparse Bayesian learning and the relevance vector machine. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 1, 211–244 (2001)
Y. Xianxian, K. Linlin, W. Xiukun, Z. Haichao, Side wear prediction of a subway outer rail on small radius curves based on system dynamics of discrete supported track. Discrete Dyn. Nat. Soc. (2022). https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/7037655
X. Wang, B. Jiang, L. Ningyun, Adaptive relevant vector machine based RUL prediction under uncertain conditions. ISA Trans. (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isatra.2018.11.024
W.J. Padgett, M.A. Tomlinson, Inference from accelerated degradation and failure data based on Gaussian process models. Lifetime Data Anal. 10, 191–206 (2004)
C.E. Rasmussen, Gaussian Processes in Machine Learning Advanced Lectures on Machine Learning. (Springer, Berlin, 2004)
K. Goebel, B. Saha, A. Saxena, N. Mct, N. Riacs, A comparison of three data-driven techniques for prognostics, in 62nd Meeting of the Society For Machinery Failure Prevention Technology, 2008, pp. 119–131
S. Saha, B. Saha, A. Saxena, K. Goebel, Distributed Prognostic Health Management with Gaussian Process Regression, in IEEE Aerospace Conference, (IEEE, 2010), pp. 1–8
M.F. Huber, Recursive Gaussian process: on-line regression and learning. Pattern Recogn. Lett. 45, 85–91 (2014)
D. Liu, J. Pang, J. Zhou, Y. Peng, M. Pecht, Prognostics for state of health estimation of lithium-ion batteries based on combination Gaussian process functional regression. Microelectron. Reliab. 53, 832–839 (2013)
S. Aye, P. Heyns, An integrated Gaussian process regression for prediction of remaining useful life of slow speed bearings based on acoustic emission. Mech. Syst. Signal Process. 84, 485–498 (2017)
B. Saha, K. Goebel, S. Poll, J. Christophersen, Prognostics methods for battery health monitoring using a Bayesian framework. IEEE Trans. Instrum. Meas. 58, 291–296 (2009)
J. Liu, W. Wang, F. Ma, Y.B. Yang, C.S. Yang, A data-model-fusion prognostic framework for dynamic system state forecasting. Eng. Appl. Artif. Intell. 25, 814–823 (2012)
P. Baraldi, M. Compare, S. Sauco, E. Zio, Ensemble neural network-based particle filtering for prognostics. Mech. Syst. Signal Process. 41, 288–300 (2013)
B.P. Wang, Prognostics using an adaptive self-cognizant dynamic system approach. IEEE Trans. Reliab. 65, 1427–1437 (2016)
Q. Tian, H. Wang, An ensemble learning and RUL prediction method based on bearings degradation indicator construction. Appl. Sci. (2020). https://doi.org/10.3390/app10010346
I. Remadna, S.L. Terrissa, M. Sayah, S. Ayad, N. Zerhouni, Boosting RUL prediction using a hybrid deep CNN-BLSTM architecture. Autom. Control Comput. Sci. (2022). https://doi.org/10.3103/S014641162204006X
Z. Lefa, Z. Yafei, Z. Tianyu, Deep learning-based remaining useful life prediction method with transformer module and random forest. Mathematics (2022). https://doi.org/10.3390/MATH10162921
B. Christoph, K. Eckhard, V. Andreas, K. Marian, On the importance of temporal information for remaining useful life prediction of rolling bearings using a random forest regressor. Lubricants (2022). https://doi.org/10.3390/LUBRICANTS10040067
Z. Ming, A. Nasser, Xu. Wang Zezhong, M.A. Yuchun, P. Michael, T. Dimitrios, Predictive maintenance for remanufacturing based on hybrid-driven remaining useful life prediction. Appl. Sci. (2022). https://doi.org/10.3390/APP12073218
Y. Ming, L. Dun, Xu. Jiang Canghua, W.D. Bin, Z. Rensheng, Hybrid condition monitoring of nonlinear mechatronic system using biogeography-based optimization particle filter and optimized extreme learning machine. ISA Trans. (2022). https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ISATRA.2021.03.018
L. Junqi, C. Chuanhai, L. Zhifeng, G. Jinyan, C. Weizheng, Stochastic hybrid system approach to task-orientated remaining useful life prediction under time-varying operating conditions. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safety. (2022). https://doi.org/10.1016/J.RESS.2022.108568
C. Sankavaram, B. Pattipati, A. Kodali, K. Pattipati, M. Azam, S. Kumar, M. Pecht, Model-Based and Data-Driven Prognosis of Automotive and Electronic Systems, in IEEE International Conference on Automation Science and Engineering, (IEEE, 2009), pp. 96–101
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (ZY2104) and Major basic research projects of equipment (514010507-205).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Lei, J., Zhang, W., Jiang, Z. et al. A Review: Prediction Method for the Remaining Useful Life of the Mechanical System. J Fail. Anal. and Preven. 22, 2119–2137 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11668-022-01532-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11668-022-01532-4